Flop Texture
The FLOP is where most decisions are made. Depending on where you are in the betting sequence, the flop will determine how you play. Many pros talk about playing the player instead of the cards, so the seeds of doubt are planted here. You have to look at a flop according to whom it may have helped and what are the perfect cards needed to give the best hand possible. Hitting a straight-flush on the flop is 64,973 to 1, if you get one, better slow play it, and a royal flush is 10 times harder to get, but because of the high cards and high probability someone has something, you don't have to slow play it. Most players miss the flop and end up with some type of a drawing hand or are looking at two over-cards, so this is where players represent what hands they want you to believe they have. Some who actually hit something are more likely not to have the top pair or their top pair can be beat on the TURN or RIVER. Whether it's the FLOP, TURN, or RIVER, this is where the possible bluff starts and the more players in the hand, the less likely a bluff will hold to the river.
FOUR RULES FOR READING THE BOARD
1. Unless there is at least
ONE PAIR on the board; it is impossible for any player to have
Quads or a Full House.
2. Unless there are at least
THREE SUITED cards on the board; it is impossible for any player to have a
Flush.
3. Unless there are at least
THREE cards on the board that have two or fewer gaps between them; it is impossible for any player to have a
Straight.
4. If none of the above premium hands are possible, then the
Nuts would always be a pocket pair that makes a
Set with the highest card on the board.
A-K
A couple of things about the
2 most loved cards in the deck, the
Ace and King.
It's about
220 to 1 that Kings will be beat by Aces. It's about
110 to 1 that any specific pair will be dealt, like
AA or
KK, so if you think someone has a higher pocket pair, the odds go up about
2% to 4% for each pair from
22 to KK that your pair has been cracked. At a full table
AA will win about
35% of the time and
KK will win about
31%. At a
full table there is about an
87% chance that at least one person has an
Ace and about
70% that
2 players have an Ace and you can reduce that by about
5% for each person less than the full table. Most books you read show the odds of getting that
4 of a kind or Full House or Flush or anything that could win, but the real odds are in the
cards players are likely to play and the cards that are
flopped. There may be a
46 to 1 chance of
making a set, but if everyone plays the high
Broadway cards,
which means those cards don't get mucked,
and two of the Broadway cards appear on the flop,
then the odds are higher that someone may have made it. Some players don't play low pairs and some don't play low kickers, so if a
4 or two fours come out on the flop, there is a slightly less chance of it helping most of the better players,
it's more likely to help a poor or loose player. If a
9 came out on the
flop, there is a higher percentage of players that could have paired it and more that will get the set if
99 come on the flop,
then it's all about the kicker.
So lets look at Flop textures:
If the
3 cards are a SET, something that rarely happens: It could be someone has
4 of a kind, there's less than a
1% chance though. There's about a
1% chance of making a
Full House, if someone has a
pocket pair, then someone is more likely to have
at least a Full House by the turn,
possibly more than one person will hit the
Full House by the River,
if the betting was heavy.
4 of a kind with an
Ace kicker
will be slow played by everyone except weak players. Someone holding a
King kicker probably won't slow play it, they will most likely make some kind of a raise or probe bet,
looking for the player with the Ace kicker.
3 Suited Cards, again not the normal type of flop: It's about
500 to 1 that anyone
hit the flush on the flop. Most likely
if someone has a flush they will slow play it if there are no other danger cards. Many will have a
flush draw and
play it to the river where it's about 100 to 1 that they will hit it. With
suited connectors and a
straight flush possible, some will chase both the straight and flush
to the river.
3 Connected Cards,
usually doesn't happen, more likely there's
at least one gap: It's about
250 to 1 that someone
hit a straight on the flop. If the 3 cards are consecutive, like
7-8-9 or
J-Q-K, then the s
care is out on the high end that at least a pair has hit because
many players will play
any 2 cards if
one is a Jack or higher. Most players will play
any 2 cards if both are an eight or above. So you have about
half of the deck being played by all of the players. Out of the
52 cards in a deck, over half are an eight or above,
28 of the 52 cards. If 3 cards are dealt on the flop that are close to a run with
only one gap, there is a possibility of a made
straight, but more likely a
big draw to the straight, and that may
last all the way to the river.
PAIRS on the flop, probably happens on the same frequency as someone getting pocket pairs. With the odds of someone being dealt a pair at about
16 to 1, it's not likely anyone hit
quads on the flop. It's about a
10% chance someone with
pocket pairs will make a set, so they are
more likely to miss the set than make it. It's about a
16% chance that someone may get 2 pair by the river
if they already have a pair.
Phil Gordon has a neat formula to calculate the odds of someone holding higher pocket pairs,
preflop. He calls it the "
Gordon Pair Principle".
If you have 99, there are 5 higher pairs that can beat you, if there are 5 players left to act, you multiply the numbers, 5x5 = 25, then divide by 2, for 12.5, which means there is a 12.5% chance of someone beating your pairs. It's not rocket science, but something good to use when it comes down to a hard preflop decision.
Suited Connectors: Will it hit the Flush
more likely than the Straight
?
This flies in the face of the odds. There are
13 cards in a suit and
2 suited cards hit the board, so there are
11 out. Since a
flush beats a straight, more people are
likely to chase the flush than the straight and since many players play connectors, it's
more likely that the flush side will be hit.
- On the straight side there are 24 cards that can help, but the cards are specific, 3 from each side. They must have the two end cards for the straight, either one on each end or 2 on the same end. With 2 cards to come and only 8 cards that can really help, it's a bigger gamble to go for the straight.
- On the flush side there are 11 cards still to be played and any of the eleven will do. If they are holding the normal 2 suited cards, they have 9 outs that they are playing to, with about a 36% chance of making the flush. Keep in mind that there is only a 25% chance of a flush before the deal.
Non-Suited Connectors: Likely to hit a
Straight about
48% of the time by the river, if they already have
2 of the 24 cards needed, considering that there is only about a
38% chance
of making a straight before the deal. That's
5 cards needed to make a
straight and
4 ways to make it, for about
20 cards that are needed, and
if you have one, then there are
16 cards that can help and
if you have 2, then
12 that can help, which may really bring it to about
32%. We can leave it to the math guys like
Sklansky and
Block to give the real odds, but you will see lots of players take
anything at 3 to 1 or better, as long as they still have half their chips left if they lose.
RAGS: At a full table, with
3 cards dealt
above a seven, it's likely
someone hit a pair and more likely that
more than one person hit a pair. If the flop has an
A, K, Q, or J and the other 2 cards are low
and it's a rainbow, then most
will bet their pair or
represent that they got the pair.
Everyone fears the Ace, most
don't fear the
King and
less are likely to fear the Queen or Jack.
3 cards
below an
eight are most likely going to get many callers and
the type of hand someone with a low set doesn't want to slow play.
I Never Bluff
