The Only Good Hand Was the Last Hand - FOLD EQUITY

The Only Good Hand Was the Last Hand - FOLD EQUITY

 

        http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/?p=1043

"It is the equity a player can expect to gain due to the opponent folding to his or her bets."

Folding?
It depends as much on the type of table you are at as it does the type of player you are playing, maybe more.

Most comments about any type of play center around a specific player and tends to be focused on becoming heads up after the flop, if not during the flop.

That only happens about 30%-40% of the time live and almost nonexistent on-line. Aggressiveness is the only game in town when paying on-line, but in a live cash game, aggression is sometimes fleeting, most times it's random to intermittent.

If you're at an aggressive table, there may be no real fold equity, because you are usually up against 2 to 3 villains. If you don't really know how much they have in their pocket, which you don't, you can't really tell how aggressive they are going to be. If you have watched the table, which you should have before sitting down, you can tell who is the Loose Aggressive and who is the Selective Aggressive player. Their fold equity is quite a bit different than the passive player that sits in-between them.

Essentially, fold equity is the extra amount of equity you gain when you factor in how likely your opponent is to fold. Working out the correct amount of fold equity relies heavily on your ability to read an opponent. In other words, you need to be fairly certain of your chances to get an opponent to fold. But how about 2 villains or even 3?

The formulas you read about in the most popular strategy sites are only good for a head-to-head battle.
With multiple opponents, you have to rely on multiple reads and your initial threat assessment for each villain.

A final word of warning…https://www.partypoker.com/how-to-play/school/advanced/fold-equity.html

When playing against really loose aggressive players, your fold equity will likely be close to zero. This is also the case against players with really short stacks (very few playing chips) at a cash/ring game as well as in tournaments. Short-stacked players are less likely to fold, as they need to take more risks.

I NEVER BLUFF

Learn to play Loose Aggressive - PreFlop.

Updated 2/11/2017

It's also a great way to play against a Loose Aggressive Player.
Professional sports players use drills to improve their game, use this like a drill.

Playing in the DARK. You don't look at the cards, but it looks like you looked at the cards.
It adds randomness to your game and takes away the decision process that can make for weak play.

Table Positions:
Small Blind (1), Big Blind (2), Under the Gun (3), UG+1 (4), Sandwich (5), Mid (6/7), Hi-Jack (7/8), Cutoff (8/9), Button (9/10)

Only 4 real positions at a table, Preflop.
Blinds - 1/2 (IN - OUT)
Early - UG/4/5 (IN - OUT)
Middle - 5/6/7 (OUT - IN)
Late - Button,CO,HJ (IN) Stealing

PRE_FLOP Betting by position.

(IN)
Everyone folds to you.
RAISE (DARK)
If Re-Raised, (Dark) Look at one card only. Don't need to look if you can remember the card.
Pairs and A-J, Raise 3X Big Blind
T-8, Raise 2X Big Blind
< 8, Raise 1X Big Blind
If Re-raised, look at both cards and play normal.

No one raised, only limpers.
Look at one card only.
Pairs and A-Q, Raise 3X Big Blind
J-T, Raise 2X Big Blind
T, Raise 1X Big Blind
If Re-Raised, Look at both cards and play normal.

Raisers and Re-Raisers.
Look at both cards.
Pairs
AA-QQ Re-Raise to All-IN
JJ-88 Call to 3X Big Blind
< 88 Call to 2X Big Blind

AK-AQ, Raise to Pot size
AJ-AT, Call to 1/2 Pot Size
KQ-KT, Call to 3X Big Blind
QJ-JT, Call to 2X Big Blind

(OUT)
First to bet.
Look at one card only.
A-T Raise to 4x Big Blind
9-8 Raise to 2x Big Blind
< 8 Look at both cards, play normal.

Add some randomness to being out of position. Pick a suit like Hearts. If the card you look at is a Heart, look at both of them.

No one raised, only limpers.
Look at one card only.
A-Q Raise to 3X Big Blind
J-2 Look at both cards (Using a Point system, subtract one point for each limper)
=> 20 points, Raise to 3X Big Blind
> 17 points, Call
< 18 points, Fold
If Re-Raised, Look at both cards and play normal.

Raisers and Re-Raisers.
Look at both cards.
Pairs
AA Re-Raise to All-IN
KK-QQ Re-Raise to Pot Size
JJ Call to 1/2 Pot size
TT Call to 3X Big Blind
99-88 Call to 2X Big Blind
< 88 Fold

AK-AQ, Raise to 1/2 Pot Size
AJ-AT, Call to 1/3 Pot Size
KQ-KT, Call to 3X Big Blind
QJ-JT, Call to 2X Big Blind
If Re-Raised, play normal.

I NEVER BLUFF

Updated 2/11/2017

The Power of Isolation

The objective of an isolation play is to make a wager big enough that it gets other players to fold, so you can be heads-up against one opponent. An isolation play can be used to isolate a tight player, bluffer, maniac, or a player on a draw. At loose tables, play tighter. At tight tables, play looser. Know who are the other players using the same tactic.

Whether it’s a tournament game or a ring game, Isolation is the key to building your stack. The object is to attempt to limit the field with your premium hands. Loose players use it to bluff or semi-bluff, some overuse it. Playing the isolation game is dependent on the ratio of BIG BLINDS to your stack size. You can limit the field with almost anything other than AA or KK, but always make at least a small bet when in position with AA or KK. Slow playing AA or KK can lead to big losses. The optimal situation is to have at least 100 Big Blinds. 
Arnold Snyder uses a Competitive Stack Factor of 60 big blinds as a minimum stack size to be competitive.

The first person to bet has the power. Position can change with each street, until heads up.

An A or K or Q will hit the flop 50% of the time or hit by the river 50% of the time. If you don't have one, someone does. You can almost estimate 10% for each player at the table, including yourself. With 8 players, it’s at least 80% that someone has an Ace, King, or Queen in their hand.

Pre-Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

STACK SIZES:

Less than 100BB: You must play small ball and be cautious with most of your playable hands, don't gamble.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 10 hands. Try to Isolate one player, but don’t try to push around the chip leader unless you have the nuts.

AA KK QQ must be raised if you are in position, and don’t be afraid to go all-in, do not slow play. Later you can use this to put others all-in when you think you have the best of it or the flop is "B" or less. (see Flop Ratings)

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

AA KK QQ can be played for a for a hit and run pre-flop, with a check raise or small bet followed by a re-raise if you are raised, regardless of the number of players in the hand.

Less than 50BB: You must play Tight Aggressive. Don’t gamble, but make the other players gamble. Take away their odds. Make it unprofitable to call your bet.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 5 hands.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

More than 100BB: Be aggressive, but only in relation to the ratio of other stacks to your stack and position.

If you are the chip leader, you should only bet according to the ratio of stack sizes, not pot size.

IN POSITION:

Always keep the pressure on when you have a playable hand and you are in position.

Switch between small ball and long ball depending on who is in the hand and if you think you are ahead or not.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play according the the pot size until you think you have the best of it, then switch to playing for stacks.

Switch between making probe bets and value bets to disguise your hand. You should only be trying to disguise your hand if you are in the lead and intend to keep it.

Post Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

3^rd Street (the Flop):

The old saying of "if it doesn't fit the flop, FOLD!"
Get in or get out. Let the gamblers gamble. If your hand is not good enough to make an isolation play, keep it small and fold to any raises where there are more than two players still in the hand. The more players in the hand, the more likely you will be beat at the river, if you don't force them out.

4^th Street:

The Power of Position reverses at 4th Street (the Turn). You are usually heads-up or three handed at this point.

Power is relevant to the size of your stack (your “Q”) compared to everyone else.

M ratio     Q ratio       Q Calculator

5^th Street:

You have what you have. If you weren't betting the best hand or able to control a weak player, you are toast.

I NEVER BLUFF

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? Part 1

Re-reading "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky.

OK, I still hate to bluff, but found out that what I really hate is the 'pure' bluff. A pure bluff is a bet, which if called, has no chance of winning in a showdown. A semi-bluff is a bet with more cards to come. A semi-bluff, when called, may not be the best hand, but has a reasonable chance of becoming the best hand. The main thing to eliminate from your game is the gamble factor, don't be a Mental Midget. There is no semi-bluff you can make on the river, with no cards to come, it's a pure bluff. Pros look for the best opportunity to maximize the value of their hand. That's why a good player is easier to bluff against than a poor player. A good player can recognize when someone may be bluffing, but because a good player will usually only semi-bluff, they can more easily represent a good hand and make it believable. A poor player will just play to the river without realizing that their hand may not be the best, but can't let it go, where a good player can fold when a reasonable bluff has been made. We need to re-evaluate when to make the semi-bluff. Playing too tight by not bluffing at some time in the game only makes your strong hands worth less in pot equity. Don't semi-bluff if you are sure you are going to be called. Betting for value is clearly incorrect when you put more money in the pot with a hand you know to be the underdog. If you think your chances of getting away with the bluff are greater than the pot odds, you should go for it. You should bet if you know the opponent will fold with enough frequency, to make the bluff profitable. It's important that bluffs are random, don't always bluff just because of the pot odds. The weaker you think your opponents hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The stronger your opponent thinks your hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The larger the pot, the more likely a bluff will be called.

Randomizing bluffs allows a tight player to take the thought out of the bluff. It also allows both tight players and loose aggressive players to appear to be selective aggressive players. Opponents might be able to outguess a player because they remember patterns of play. Randomizing bluffs forces them to try to outguess an uncontrolled action, which is impossible. Sklansky suggests using a card, like the King of spades as the random trigger. The normal bluffs, combined with a random bluff, are more deceptive. Sklansky even goes farther by using 5 cards which includes all four Jacks. The game he played in this example was lo-ball, like Razz, in which those high cards are generally no good to win with. Using a card in Hold'em that generally doesn't help anyone, may be a good choice. The cards would be added to the number of outs to make the hand look better to an opponent. When the random card appears on the flop, you would bet, even if it didn't help your hand. If the hand fit the board, like for a straight or flush draw, it would appear that it helped your hand. Harrington suggests using a watch with a second hand. When the second hand is between 10 and 12, you could bluff. On a digital watch you could bluff when the last second is a 9 or when it matched one of the flopped cards, duece to nine. Again, only bluff good players who may fold to a bluff and it increases your odds of winning. Even if you lose, your odds are better on the hands that do win, because you are more likely to be called by the second best hand. The opponent can never tell when you are bluffing, because it's random.

In deciding to bluff, first determine the odds of making your hand. Then determine the odds your opponent is getting on the bet. Then you must randomly bluff in such a way that the odds against your bluffing are identical to your opponent's pot odds. If you have a 20% chance of making your hand and your opponent is getting 5 to 1 odds, the ratio of your good hands, 20%, to your bluffs, should be 5 to 1. 20/5 = 4. You should bluff 4% of the time, a ratio of 20% to 4% would equal 5 to 1. If there are 10 outs, you would pick 2 unseen cards as the random bluff, to give you the 5 to 1 odds needed. It doesn't have to be exact, but the closer you are to the exact ratio the better. In game theory, when you bluff this way, you take optimum advantage of the situation.

Bluffing against 2 or more players

It's rarely correct to bluff 2 or more players when all the cards are out. The chances the bluff will succeed decrease geometrically with each player in the pot. In most bluffing situations against more than one players the probablilties that each player will fold are not independant. Position and player types have to be factored in because players who might fold in one position might not fold in another. Betting to reduce the field is not a bluff. When there is a caller ahead of you, the caller and the original bettor cannot both be bluffing. When you have a minimum to near-minimum raising hand and the player before you, who has the same standards as you, raises, then his hand is probably better than yours. It takes a better hand to call a raise than to raise a call.

(Bluff or Semi-Bluff Part 2)

I Never Bluff

NLH Poker: Reading the board (Part 2)

So let's talk about some standard types of FLOPS.
Everyone knows that the flop defines your hand. The thing you should be asking yourself is, who would be playing to this flop? And you can kind of figure out most of the possible hands according to position, card ranges and betting patterns.

The best hand likely to hit on any flop that doesn't include a pair is trips and most players that hit trips are going to slow play to trap other players with good drawing hands or even 2 pair. Pocket pairs only happen once out of 16 hands, so two players having pocket pairs is unlikely. Someone will flop a pair about 42% of the time, but considering that the minor cards (2-7) are usually mucked, we're probably down to less than a 30% chance that someone paired the board, and flopping 2 pair happens less than 5% of the time. It may be best to vary how you slow play by checking out of position or if in position, calling any bet or making a small bet. Heads-up on the FLOP is the most likely place for the bluff to start, but more likely where the betting tells come into play.

Ace with Rags
FLOPS like Ah 3d 9s - It's the position players that will drive the pot. If you don't have the Ace, someone likely does. The best hand is pocket pairs for the sets of AAA, 333, 999, and the 33 may have been mucked anyway depending on position. How many players that are in the hand, after the pre-flop betting, are going to hit anything?
Early position players that bet, probably have the Ace because they aren't likely to be playing anything with a 3 or 9 unless it's a pocket pair. They could have a suited Kh like KQ or KJ, and may have mucked K10 and QJ if there was a lot of action pre-flop. They may be betting on the nut draw, but they most likely aren't going to bet more than the pot and might check raise a set.
Middle position players that are the first to bet may have the same type of hand as the early position players, but might also try to represent the Ace with a probe bet. If they have to call a raise, they are more likely to call with a set or 2 pair or raise with an A10 or higher kicker. Passive players are only going to bet if they have paired their Ace or hit 2 pair or a set, they aren't likely to slow play it.
Late position players that are the first to bet are most likely going to bet 2 times the Big Blind, or more, with anything. Checking is just too weak, but it might be a good play if they know that the blinds or button are loose players that will bet if no one has or call any normal bet with only one player before them. Late position players could call any raise if they have pocket pairs higher than the 9, or raise with an Ace with a kicker higher than the nine. Might call any raise with 2 pair or better. A raise should get everyone to fold except another Ace with a high kicker or 2 pair or an set. Passive players are only going to play the nuts, but may not raise if they think they can be beat.

Two high cards with no ace
FLOPS like Kc Qd 7C - The kind of hand that may see lots of action. The best hand has pocket pairs for trip KKK, QQQ, or 777.
It's the kind of hand that can get someone in a lot of trouble. Second pair, QQ, is very vulnerable. Anyone who calls must have the King or AA or 2 pair or a set, they may even raise. The chip leader, if loose aggressive, may even re-raise, suspecting a bluff or representing a King with a higher kicker, if they can afford to lose. Bottom pair, 77, is already beat by too many possible hands. Most players hold just about any face card
Early Position players that bet are likely to have a strong hand since they should only be playing the top 5 or 6 hands. Now you have to look at the type of player in this position. Passive players may overplay the hand and force all of the money out, unless they are on a nut flush draw holding Ac Xc, then they will probably fold to a normal bet down the line. Aggressive players could be playing any of the top 15 or even 20 hands and would bet 3 to 4 times the blinds. You don't slow play this type of board because of all the players who keep these cards, anyone could have 2 pair. Someone with bottom pair, 77, will likely fold to a big raise.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet could easily get sandwiched between AA or a set of Kings/Queens, if the early position player just checked and the late position players could have the club draw or a set of sevens. Middle position is just about the worst place to be with this type of draw, unless you have a monster.
Late Position players that are the first to bet are still going to bet 3 times the blinds. If they only check, then they could be on an Ace high hand or lower club draw, or even looking to check-raise with a set or 2 pair. Most are going to raise to at least steal the blinds. Passive players are most likely to make a weak bet or just check. Late Position players that have to call or raise can't really bluff here, unless there is only one other player in the hand, and it's a weak player. With 2 or more payers in the hand before them, they have to have a good hand that can beat a player that pairs the board but has a weak kicker.

A high card, no ace, with 2 rags
FLOPS like Qs 8h 4h - the kind of flop that may miss most hands. The best hands possible would be pocket pairs for QQQ, 888, 444, and 44 may have been mucked depending on position and player types. Still reading "Poker Wizards" by Warwick Dunnett and the section by Mike Sexton talks about bluffing opportunities. Flops that have high cards without an Ace can be represented as having the high card when they sense weakness on the other players. It's one of those areas where your cards may be irrevelent. You can bluff out the players with the Ace, even if they have a high kicker.
Early Position players that bet, if they don't have trip Queens or Eights, probably have the AQ, maybe KQ, for top pair and a great kicker. They're not likely to have Q8 or Q4, unless they are aggressive players because good players and weak players will muck them. Shouldn't be any checking here, unless someone has AA or KK, even then there should be a good size bet to limit the field.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet can almost go to steal the blinds from this position. It's still more likely that they need AA or KK or trips or 2 pair to even bet here. Just about everyone who checked or made a minimum bet is on a draw, because anyone who had a Queen may have kept it if there were weak bets pre-flop and hands like JJ, TT, and 99 may be too timid to push a big bet, they will probably make a probe bet. Middle position players that have to call a raise need a top hand like AQ, KQ, possibly QJ or 2 pair. AA and KK could call a big raise, but may re-raise to see if someone has a set. Someone with middle pair, 88, needs a high kicker and they are lilely to call a probe bet instead of re-raising. Bottom pair has to fold to a big raise before them.
Late Position players that are the first to bet can represent a lot of hands and will likely be able to steal the blinds. They need a monster hand to call a big raise from this position and can slow play a monster if there are weak bets before them.

Rags.
FLOPS like 9d 6h 2c - Pretty much missed everybody. Hands with the 9 probably have a good kicker and A9 should be leading the betting, unless someone has pocket pairs higher than the 9. The best possible hands are 999, 666, 222, and the 666 is the sign of the devil, so it's pretty much the hand to watch. If the pre-flop betting has been vigorous, then the 22 was probably mucked anyway. There's something about these middle cards that seem to make some of the pros salivate if the pre-flop betting has been unremarkable. Holding cards like T8, 78, even JT, are not uncommon, but if the pre-flop betting was heavy, those cards are gone.
Early Position players that bet first probably have a pocket pair or AK or AQ, they would probably check if they had AJ or AT. They shouldn't have any thing with a 9, unless the pre-flop betting was light. Any other hands will probably be checked and mucked to a bet or raise. Early position players that call a bet or raise probably have a pocket pair, AA to JJ and may have to muck the JJ if the betting was heavy. They could have slow played the set of 999 and really shouldn't be playing anything less.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet could have A9 or a pocket pair, but should at least bet 2 times the BB with any 2 cards since they had to have something to even make it to the flop and there is sure to be a bet after them if they check. Middle Position players that have to call a bet or raise can't mess around here. They are going to have to raise or re-raise if they have anything they think can win or muck all those second best hands. If they have a ton of chips, they can try to buy the pot, but only if the pre-flop betting was weak. They are very likely sandwiched between to good hands and out of position.
Late Position players that are the first to bet can represent just about any hand they want and should be able to steal the pot with a normal bet, they could even play this one dark. The type of hand that suits Arnold Snyder's Rochambeau style of play. If there are lots of checkers before them, there could be a trap being set, but most likely the flop missed everyone. Late Position players that have to call a bet or raise still have a decent chance with their top pocket pair or middle to low set. They will need to catch 2 cards for a straight or flush, so those draws should be gone, even the 78 won't stand up to a decent raise. Most likely no one went all-in unless they have a hand that can be beat at the turn or river or they are short stacked.

NLH Poker: Reading the board (part 1) 

I Never Bluff

I Hate Bluffing

Bluffing ----- do you really need to bluff?
I hate bluffing and have always hated bluffing. I am currently reading Poker Wizards by Warwick Dunnett. The section with Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, one of my favorite players to watch, talks about the need to bluff.

Ferguson writes, "If I never bluff, my opponents are going to figure that out and only call me when they have a hand that they think can beat me. Therefore, I am really losing money with my good hands because I only get called when I am beaten. If I bluff too often, I will get called too often, and end up losing more money with my bluffs than I make from my good hands".

OK......So we'll look into Bluffing..........Maybe?



Reasons to Bluff are the same as the reasons to raise.
Reduce the number of players in the hand and/or Steal the Blinds. Generally good players will rarely bluff, unless the table is tight.

Player classifications prior to the first hand being dealt.
Rate each player as a 1 (Passive) or 2 (Aggressive).
After a few hands see if the classification still holds and then sub-classify them, which will give you an aggression factor.

Aggression Factors
11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)
12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),
21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)
22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).
3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

See if the maniac stays true to form or was really an aggressive type that got some great hands early in the game. There are many Mental Midgets in fast card room tournaments and on-line play, they have no respect for the game.

Clothing, mannerisms, boisterous talking, or no social interaction, can give a clue as to the type of player. How they stack their chips, play with their chips, splashing, forcefulness in betting movements, or mucking their cards can also give a hint as the the type of player.

Bluff Poker
Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: “The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%”, (until the final table).

The probability of bluffing may be based on position, relative to the number of players at the table and the number of players in the pot. The "Button" and "Cutoff" players could have a 90% probability of bluffing, if there are no other players in the hand and decreasing 10% for each player before them in an unraised pot and another 10% if the pot has been raised. If it's been re-raised, the chance that someone is bluffing could be down to less than 10%.

Passive/Passive (11) players are not likely to bluff at any time. If they do bluff pre-flop, they are likely to muck the hand to any bet.
Maniacs or Mental Midgets (3) could bluff at any time. They are not likely to make it to the second round unless they get lucky. They will usually make a very large bet or go All-in from Early Positions and any position if no one else is in the hand before them.

Pre-flop bluffing probability
Early Positions
Aggression factor............12..21..22

.........................(UG) 10% 20% 30%
.........................(4th) 20% 30% 40%
.........................(5th) 30% 40% 50%

Middle Positions

Aggression factor..........12..21..22
......................(6th) 40% .50% 60%
......................(7th) 50% 60% 70%

Late Positions
Aggression factor...........12..21..22
..........(8th/Raising)....60% 70% 80%
.........(Button/Cutoff).. 70% 80% 90%
........(Blinds)............ 70% 80% 90%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Post-flop bluffing probability
The more players in the hand, the less likely anyone is bluffing, unless its the chip leader or a short stack or of course the Mental Midget.

Aggression factor....... 12.. 21.. 22
Early Positions.......... 10% 20% 30%
Middle Positions........ 20% 30% 40%
Late Positions........... 30% 40% 50%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Pre-flop bluffing:
Early Positions (UG) Under the Gun, 4th and 5th positions.
The UG &amp; early position raising more than the standard 3 times the big blind is more likely to be a bluff. They would most likely slow play or make a normal raise with Top 10 hands. They are likely to just call or raise more than 3 times the big blind with Type 3 or 4 hands. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked. Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play the top 10 hands, but any other hand is open season for a large bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs and middle connectors or any suited Ace with a middle to low card.

Middle Positions (6th/7th)
Middle Position payers could be playing the top 15 hands normally but bluff lesser hands if no one is in the hand before them. Middle Position players are more likely to be squeezed between good hands if they are not first to bet. They are more likely to get trapped in a difficult situation, when you are trying to call a bet by a player in Early Position, but are getting raised or have a very real threat of being raised by another opponent in Late Position. This is dangerous because you may be wanting to slow down the action when you are holding a marginal hand or are wary of your opponent acting behind you in Late Position, but the Early Position player is either too aggressive or has a good hand himself and is forcing you to commit more chips to the hand. Middle Position may be the hardest place to try a bluff.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Button/Cutoff)
Late Position players are only limited by how many players got in the hand before them and if anyone raised. With no raises and everyone else mucking, they can easily bluff with just about anything, especially if the blinds are weak players. If there are a few callers they can raise with almost any of the top 20 hands. If the pot was raised with a standard raise, they are likely to bluff only if there are weak callers and the raiser is a loose aggressive player or a Mental Midget.
Blinds
It's amazing to me how irate aggressive players become if someone raised their blinds. The more irate they are, the more vocal they are, the more likely they are bluffing or pretending, because they have a strong hand, especially if there is only one or two players left in the hand.

Post-Flop bluffing
Scare cards are likely to induce bluffing if either no one has bet or the Loose Aggressive or Mental Midget thinks no one has caught anything and wants to represent a nut hand. The more players in the hand, the less likely someone who bluffs is going to succeed.

Early Positions (1st, 2nd and 3rd positions)
Early Position raising more than 2 times the pot is more likely to be a bluff. They would still more likely slow play or make a normal raise with a set or higher. They are likely to just call or raise half the pot with top pair or a nut draw. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked.
Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play a set or higher, but any other hand is open season for a larger bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs but representing top pair or nut draws with an Ace or King on the board.

Middle Positions (4th, 5th, 6th &amp; 7th positions)
Middle Position payers are still vulnerable to being squeezed out but a bluff here could cause good drawing hands to fold. This may also be the best place for those Mental Midgets to attack if players before them are checking.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Cutoff/Button)
Most likely to make a play if there are few still in the hand and everyone checked to them. May be a good place to bluff if someone made a small bet and it looks like the rest will fold.
The goal is to put the pressure on, by getting heads up with a good hand against a weak player, the winning hand against a good but second best hand or challenge the Mental Midgets.

Final Table
This is where bluffing becomes a fine art.
Now you are in-the-money and it's all about finishing as high as you can. The chance that someone is bluffing goes anywhere from 30% to 60%, increasing by another 10% according to the type of player you are against and your stack size relative to the average stack size. It's still going to be determined by the amount of the bet or raise in relation to the flop. If the bet or raise is un-reasonable, because the flop doesn't look like it helped anyone or the board is scary, then either someone is bluffing or they have a hand that can be beat at the river. It's rare that a bluffer will fire two bluffing bets (bullets), like a raise and re-raise or raising the flop and turn, with absolutely nothing. But, if it's going to happen, it will happen at the final table, at least once.




"I Never Bluff"