Feeling....................... LUCKY!

LUCK

"Chance (Luck ) favors the prepared mind." Louis Pasteur 

Luck will find you if you go looking for it, both the good and the bad, mostly the bad!

        Mental Exercise:

              Note who is playing the most hands, who is playing the least hands. 

                       What is the average raise by the loose aggressive players?

                       Who only calls? 

                       Who folds to raises? 

                       Who is aggressive against draws?

Bad Beats and Bonehead Blunders. 

Are the BBs, giving you the Heebie Jeebies, brought on by belligerent bluffing? 

          Bad Beat = Luck beat the best hand at the Turn or River and no one slow played.

          Bonehead Blunder = the best hand was trapped from the beginning or slow playing resulted 

                         in luck winning at the river. Don't give LUCK a chance to beat you at the river! 

                You have AA and slow play it to the river and get beat.

                You have AA and go all-in, reraising, before or after the flop, and get beat at the river.

One is a Bonehead Blunder and the other is a Bad Beat!

Aggression

The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging.

“In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!”

Being aggressive before the turn or river, might have caused your opponent to fold, instead of winning on the turn or at the river.

Loose Aggressive players try to manufacture luck by playing a lot of hands. They typically raise out of position when first to play, knowing that the tight passive players are likely to fold their marginal hands. They usually raise around 3 big blinds preflop, which also shuts down the players who have bought in for less than 50 big blinds and players who have less than 50 big blinds. 

Loose Aggressive players want action and will put in 10% of their stack with their marginal hands, middle connected and/or suited hands. When in position, you have to reraise these players with your top 15 hands and call with your top 25 hands. Out of position it's best to just call your top 15 to 20 hands and raise with your top 15 hands.

Experienced tournament players are likely to make a bluffing bet on the river, if they think the other player is a weak or timid player. A bluffing raise is more likely to be used if an experienced player thinks the other player is more concerned about conserving chips in the middle of the tournament.

If sandwiched between an All-in raise and a previous raiser, when an over card comes on the Flop, the raiser is likely to fold a smaller pair to a re-raise. A Semi-bluff should be used more than out-right bluffs, early in tournaments.

The Patience Factor: 

From the controversial book: Arnold Snyder, The Poker Tournament Formula 1. 

            Required Reading for Tournaments: Arnold Snyder's, The Poker Tournament Formula 2.

The blind structure in relation to the number of chips each player starts with is the primary consideration on deciding if you should even enter a tournament, yet alone on what your strategy should be. The lower the patience factor, the more aggressive you have to be.

The lower the patience factor, the more luck prevails over skill.

The best way to get lucky, is to keep your head in the game!

You don't get lucky before the flop.
All luck happens after the flop.
After the flop you must keep this in mind.

• There are two types of hands in Texas Hold'em. 
• A pair or better and a draw to a straight or flush. 
• Every hand played after the flop is a contest between these two types of hands. 
• The draws are broken down to connected cards, gapped cards, suited connectors and suited gapped cards. 
• Anything else isn't worth looking at except when you are heads-up.

Your head can get into a kind of fog when you keep getting marginal hands or no playable hands for a couple of hours at a loose table.When this happens, it's best to take a walk for a few hands, which may help clear your mind a little.

I see a lot of players that change seats or even tables when the cards turn cold. I don't subscribe to the notion that if I change my seat, it will change my luck. You make your own luck, which is what those loose aggressive players are trying to do anyway by playing 80% of the hands and raising 50% or more with them, regardless of position. I love those players, when my head is in the game.

I NEVER BLUFF

Get your head in the game.....................Keep your head in the game!

You know your head isn't in the game, when you think of reasons to abandon the table when you keep losing to marginal hands. The hands are not coming your way and you can't justify playing the marginal hands most loose, as well as loose aggressive, players play just to get lucky on the flop. It's probably best to get up and walk around for a couple of orbits to clear the fog in your brain, or just leave.

Loose tables with loose aggressive players are very profitable, if you keep your head in the game. The low level games are usually loose and often loose aggressive. Loose aggressive tables are where you want to play. 

It's easy to lose focus when you aren't playing well or the hands aren't coming your way. I see a lot of players that change seats or even tables when the cards turn cold. I don't subscribe to the notion that if I change my seat, it will change my luck. You make your own luck, which is what those loose aggressive players are trying to do anyway by playing 80% of the hands and raising 50% or more with them, regardless of position. Some of them often use the straddle to build the pot. It's an action players move. I love those players, when my head is in the game. 

Keep your head in the game and raise the action players with your favorable position and range of hands and you have to know their range of hands.

What do Action Players play?

Loose Aggressive Tables average 4+ players willing to see the flop if the bets are less than 3x BB

LA players tend to bet 2x/3x BB w/Ax, Kx, Broadway connectors, IN or OUT of position.

They are not that concerned about the pot size, as most will raise to build the pot and eliminate tight players. These action players are are looking to get lucky and the only way to minimize their prospecting for luck is to attack them, especially those straddle players.

What do Tight Players play?

TA players will raise more often than Tight Passive players. Both have a similar range of hands, but neither one is a action player. The tight player is more likely to fold when the LA players raise the bet above their threshold of betting less than premium hands. 

IN position the TA players tend to call their bottom range and  raise with their top range of hands. OUT of position the TA players tend to call or raise with their top range of hands and are more dangerous than the action players which will release their hand after the flop, if they haven't hit something and/or don't have a good drawing possibility. Tight Passive and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to hold on when they hit the flop and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to raise when they hit top pair or make a set or better.

KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME.

I NEVER BLUFF

Hollywood Park Casino 1st Sunday 25k tournament.

Updated: 2/5/2017

 Still haven't found the time to play in one, but it looks like a good Tournament.

Most tournaments are geared to be top heavy in payouts which makes them less profitable if you only get "In-The-Money".

Players have been clamoring for a more "fair" payout structure. So fast games with a low "M" tend to be more of a gambler's tournament even if you get to the final table.

I've won a couple of tournaments in the past here but Hollywood Park Casino has leaned more to gamblers in the past. I still search for the elusive Sit and Go tournaments, which Hollywood Park Casino used to have, even though they were more on the fast side.

I didn't play in this one but it looks like they are improving on their tournament structure in some of them, we'll see as they start moving to the new casino and get more players from the new facilities surrounding them.

So what kind of tournament do we have?
Allen 'Chainsaw' Kessler "Approved"?
'Action' Dan Harrington Approved?
Arnold Snyder Approved?

Here is my assessment of the Tournament Value  for Hollywood Park Casino's  First Sundayof each month, Feb 2017. $25,000 Guarantee. 

$230 Entry Fee win no rebuy/add-on. They need at least 129 players or entries, including re-entries, to meet the guarantee, as only $194 of the entry fee goes the prize pool.

Hopefully there will be at least 144 players for Optimum Value.
Their regular Sunday Tournament is also @ Noon for $150 entry and a $12,000 guarantee, with $30 going to fees and $30,000 in chips, no rebuy? We'll get to that one later.

Unlike many of the low limit Texas Hold'em cash games, this looks looks like it isn't on the fast side, with 30 minute blind changes, but only  for the first 3 blind changes and fairly deep starting stack of 300 Big Blinds with a Utility "M" of about 200 Big Blinds, until it gets 30% faster at level 5.

The $230 entry fee will get you $30,000 in chips and you can re-enter up to the 9th Level, or about 3 hours and 30 minutes into the tournament.  Don't wait until then to get into the tournament because you'll be down to less then 40 Big Blinds by then if you haven't increased your stack.

You reach the Minefield at about Level 4,  which is still not too bad at 150 Big Blinds, since you need a minimum of 60 Big Blinds at all times, to be competative. If your average win/loss rate is 50% and with the ante kicking in, you have only about 70 hands left before you have to play a Kill Phil kind of game. The Minefield has a long fuse, about 4.17 hours and should end about Level 15.5, where you will need at least $360.000 in chips to continue at the Bubble Phase and on to the In-the-Money Phase.

The Minefield is fairly deep, which means that's where most of the action is going to be as players try to improve their stacks. At level 11 and 12, about 4 hours into the tournament, it should start getting exciting as short stacks are going All-In and medium stacks get cautious.

You have a almost 4 hours to Double Up your stack, which means you can change gears several times to maximise your play.

Being a tournament more geared to Luck, at about 16%, than Skill, at over 90%, Tight Passive players are likely to get run over, and this one could go for close to 8 hours or more. Haven't seen the results, I don't think Hollywood Park Casino publishes them.

I NEVER BLUFF

Updated: 2/5/2017

The racetrack is gone, but there's always the straddle.

This week at Hollywood Park Casino.

Haven't played there in a long time, still needs a lot of improvement in the ambience, but hopefully when the new casino is finished it will be the prime destination for LA poker.

They have Pot Limit Omaha on the board, one of my favorite games, but no one signed up except for the Omaha 8 games, which aren't spelled out on the board, they just call it Omaha. The 50 Big Blind limit on the buy-in makes it too much gamble for me in a game that already has lots of action and half the table looking for the flop. I would most likely play it with 100 Big Blinds as the buy-in.

Looked at the 3/5 $30-$100 NTH, but I don't like starting with only 20 big blinds. Decided to start small with the 1/2 $40-$100 No Limit Texas Holdem game.  They had 3 tables already going and about 7 on the waitlist that wanted to play, which is what I look for if possible. A new table with no big stacks in the way, which opened up about 20 minutes later.

I was reluctant to play with only 50 big blinds, but since the table was loose and kind of passive, it was a good start. . Usually had at least 4 players see the flop. Only hand that really lucked out against me was a new player, about an hour into the game, that got the low end of a straight flush, on the river, against my AQ draw. Got a Queen on the flop, we were All-In when she hit the straight on the Turn and the Straight Flush on the river. If I had a pair of Queens or another Queen had hit the board, we would have hit the jackpot. She had less chips than me so it was an easy bet.

A new player entered the game a little later, looked to be one of the usual suspects that played there a lot, one of the good old boys. His favorite play was to straddle, which is not that big a play at a low stakes game like 1/2 NTH.

"The straddle is more a sign of a gambler", someone who wants action, but also wants to limit the field with a second forced bet. It's a bet, usually Under-the-Gun or first to bet after the Big Blind and limited usually to an extra Big Blind. It's also a "Blind Bet", he makes the straddle bet before the cards are dealt. Anyone who wants to bet now has to bet at least 2 Big Blinds, which forces out most of the weak limpers. I love gamblers. In this scenario, all you have to do is bet 4 times the Big Blind and they usually fold as they are out of position and playing blind.

"By straddling you change the effective stake of the game, and in turn change the effective stacks. If you have a solid 100bb strategy but not a great 50bb strategy, why create a bad situation for yourself? Overall, straddling is a losing play. You put in more money with a random hand, and when you do so from UTG you have awful position when you go postflop. You also halve the effective stacks and artificially increase the stakes to one that you likely are not bankrolled for. In specific situations a straddle can be good, especially when it’s socially viable…but barring that, you should usually avoid straddling in your games!" Red Chip Poker 

Wasn't a bad day, made about $20 an hour, could have been much better or a lot worse, as I was All-In a couple of times when I was down to about 25 Big Blinds and my cards held up.

FYI, there was also a Sunday Special $25,000 Guaranteed Tournament going on, usually billed as the First Sunday of each month. I'll post a blog on the Tournament Value in a later post this month.

I NEVER BLUFF

Internet Poker's Wall of Fame?

Last week ,Jan 26, 2016, TwoPlusTwo Pokercast hosts Adam Schwartz and Terrence Chan added Phil Galfond, Shaun Deeb, and Neteller as its ninth, tenth, and eleventh inductees to their Internet Poker's Wall of Fame (IPWOF).

It's because of Neteller and the online poker sites during poker's Black Friday, that I will most likely not be playing online poker anytime soon in the US.

I am probably in the minority, but unless I can walk into the place where I deposited my money so I can then withdraw it, in person, I can't trust any online site to pay me what I want when I want it.

I actually would trust most of the casinos in Vegas or the top 5 cardrooms in Los Angeles, if I could make deposits and withdrawals at the casino. Of course, I'd probably just use the cash to play live though, but at least I would have had it in my hand or on the table where I could see and touch it.

Jan 17, 2007
The United States crackdown on internet gambling took another twist after the two founders of Neteller, an online payment company, were charged with money-laundering and the company was accused of facilitating "illegal financial transactions".

John Lefebvre, 55, and Steve Lawrence, 46, were charged by the assistant US district attorney in the southern district of New York less than 24 hours after they were arrested in Malibu and the United States Virgin Islands.
The shares of Neteller have slid 80pc in the past 12 months. They were suspended yesterday at 176p.

Feb 7, 2007
Now the Web site for the company is advising customers that all withdrawals have been blocked and the funds are being maintained in trust on the customer's' behalf while Neteller works to resolve the issues.
Neteller has not disclosed how much money has been frozen and has refused to disclose or confirm any details of the freeze, as has a spokesperson from the Department of Justice.

March 21, 2007
In more good news for the online gambling industry, Neteller today announced that it has reached an agreement with the US Department of Justice (DOJ) to return funds belonging to American players that had been frozen at the DOJ's request .

Neteller, the online ewallet company that at one time provided payment processing services for over 85 per cent of the online gambling industry, has been in legal limbo since the DOJ arrested two former executives on conspiracy and money laundering charges back in January. Neteller became the primary funding source for the online companies that continued to service the American market after the passage of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) drove the American credit card industry out of the market.

The press release notes that Neteller has signed agreements with the DOJ and the forensic auditing group Navigant. The agreement provides a 75-day timeline under which Neteller will work out a plan to return funds in an orderly manner to its one-time US customers.

I eventually got my money back and after a while decided to take a try at PokerStars, FullTilt, Ultimate Bet Poker, and Absolute Poker.

Then came April 15th, 2011. Poker's Black Friday.
The DOJ closed down the four major online poker sites, Pokerstars, Full Tilt, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet Poker,

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . and the rest is history.

I NEVER BLUFF