FEAR

What would you be IF you weren't afraid?
“In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!”

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Hollywood Park Casino Daily Tournaments

This one from Hollywood Park Casino is on a Saturday at 7pm. $3,000 Guarantee. $60 Entry Fee and one $60 rebuy/add-on. They need at least 81 players or entries, including rebuys, to meet the guarantee, as only $37 of the entry fee and/or rebuy/add-on goes the prize pool.
Their set-up sheet shows one on Sunday @ Noon for $150 entry and a $12,000 guarantee, with $30 going to fees and $30,000 in chips, no rebuy? We'll get to that one later.

Unlike many of the low limit Texas Hold'em cash games, this looks looks like it isn't on the fast side, with 20 minute blind changes, only due to the deep starting stack.

The $60 entry fee will get you $10,000 in chips and the rebuy/add-on will get you another $15,000 in chips, so it's pretty deep stacked at 250 Big Blinds (M), depending on if you added-on (rebuy) or didn't. If you didn't take the early re-buy, really an add-on if taken early, then you're very limited on your attack strategy. Some aggressive players like to hedge their ROI by trying not to add-on early. This puts your luck factor at about 90% and severely limits your playability. So if you are an action player you are most likely up against Tight Aggressive players who only play about 30% of their hands. The Minefield starts about a hour after the Tournament starts, so you have a little time to build your stack off the Tight Passive players. The tournament could run about 4 to 5 hours.

With an M of 250 to start, when you reach the Minefield at about Level 4, you'll be down to 83 Big Blinds, if your average win/loss rate is 50%, but with the ante kicking in, you have only about 37 hands left before you have to play a Kill Phil kind of game. The Minefield should end about Level 9, where you will need at least $42.000 in chips to continue to the Bubble phase.

The Minefield is fairly deep, which means that's where most of the action is going to be as players try to improve their stacks. At level 6 and 7, about 2 hours into the tournament, it should start getting exciting as short stacks are going All-In and medium stacks get cautious.

You have a little over 3 hours to Double Up your stack, which means you can change gears several times to maximise your play. At the Blind Off Level, level 9, you need about $264,000 in chips to make it past the bubble to where you're In-The-Money.

Being a tournament more geared to Luck, at about 53%, than Skill, at about 48%, Tight Passive players are still likely to get run over, but this one could go for 5 hours or more. Haven't seen the results, I don't think Hollywood Park Casino publishes them.


I NEVER BLUFF

Monday, November 14, 2016

Hollywood Park Casino

I finally got a chance to go to the new Hollywood Park Casino. It has been completely rebuilt and much more attractive with it's modern open design, just a few yards from the old casino and racetrack it was previously attached to. I miss the iconic neon Hollywood Park Casino sign though.
I've been told it's larger than the old casino, but it's hard to tell with the new modern layout.

The poker area is more open and much cleaner looking than before and was quite active in all the areas. They have several areas off the poker room, like one for the California Games and Asian Games and a High Roller area, as well as Black Jack. Any kind of poker game you want, and the new big thing, Big "O" (Omaha 5 card Hold'em) poker, which is an Omaha-8-or-better poker game.

The entry court splits the casino off with the poker areas on the left (west) and the Turf Club and Simulcast off-track wagering room off the right (east) where you can get to the multi-level parking garage. I prefer to pay for valet parking which is reasonable at $5 for regular or $10 for close by.

An elegant bar and lounge area off the poker room and the Century Bar and Grill, the Raise Lounge, are right at the entrance. They have a Peet's Coffee shop and the Deli, a "design your own sandwich shop". Didn't see a gift shop, though Peet's may end up selling some gifts.

I'm old fashioned guy and that's my liquor drink of choice, rarely will I order a cocktail of any kind. The classic Old Fashioned, with no fruit of any kind, muddled or floating. Irish whiskey, Bourbon, and an occasional Scotch, in that order, are what I look for. They are limited with only Bushmills and Jameson for my Irish taste, I usually end up with Bushmills, unless they have Red Breast, then I'll go for Bourbon. I've had all of the ones they offer here, but alas, no Jack Daniels Single Barrel. At least they have Macallan 12 Scotch, the only Scotch I enjoy, except for the occasional Laphroaig, but then again I'm a Gemini, go figure.

Stouts and Porters are my beer of choice, and I usually go for a beer before I'll have a whiskey. I didn't notice any there, and they don't appear beer to have anything on draft.

Still hoping they bring back Sit and Go Poker.

I NEVER BLUFF

Big "O" @ Hollywood Park Casino


Big "O" is a 5 card Omaha poker game that is gaining popularity with card players in the poker world. Depending on which Google search comes up, it could be a regular high only game or a high/low, Omaha-8-or-better game that's usually a limit game, but sometimes a pot limit game. They're spreading the Big "O" cash game at Hollywood Park Casino, 3/6 limit. I observed a few hands of the Big O cash games prior to the new casino completion, but didn't play any. It's a fairly popular 3/6 limit game and appeared to have lots of action each hand, but not a loose aggressive game. Sometimes they have a couple of tables running.

I finally took in the Big "O" tournament at Hollywood Park Casino, my first venture into 5 card Omaha. They had a 3/6 Limit cash game running, with a few names on the waiting list. Limit poker is a River game as opposed to No Limit poker which is usually a Flop or even a pre-flop game and Pot Limit poker which is usually a Turn or River game.

It's usually on a Saturday at 3pm. $2,500 Guarantee. $60 Entry Fee and one $60 rebuy/add-on. They need at least 63 players, including rebuys, to meet the guarantee, as only $40 of the entry fee and/or rebuy/add-on goes the prize pool. It's kind of on the fast side with 15 minute blind changes. The $60 entry fee will get you 10,000 in chips and the rebuy/add-on will get you another 15,000 in chips, so it's pretty deep stacked at 250 to 500 Big Blinds (M) depending on if you added-on (rebuy) or didn't. As a limit game, your "M" is discounted from the first hand you play and compounded with 4 blind changes per hour, so if you are an action player, it could cost you 30% of your chips, or more, in the first hour, if you didn't rebuy. Fortunately there are no ante levels, so the Minefield won't start for at least an hour, of course the Minefield Level will be different depending again if you added-on (rebuy) or didn't. The tournament could run about 4 to 5 hours.

With an M of 250 to start, you should reach the Minefield at about Level 8 and that Minefield should end before Level 10, where you will need at least 40.000 in chips to continue.
With an M of 500 to start, you should reach the Minefield at about Level 11 and that Minefield should end by Level 12, and you should be in the bubble level of the tournament.

I came in late, about level 6, about an hour and a half late, so my entry fee, still at $60 + the $60 rebuy, gave me an M of about 41 to start. From the first hand I found out that it's a Omaha 8 or better game, which was OK since my favorite game is Pot Limit Omaha and I occasionally play Omaha 8. With 5 cards to start instead of 4. I wanted to see how the players played and how the action progressed. I luckily didn't have to play any of the first 6 hands, so I got a flavor of the table, which showed it's an action game where 5 of the 8 players usually see the flop and 3 to 4 players go to the river. Not overly loose aggressive until at least the bubble. I made the final table, but it only takes losing a couple of hands to seriously deplete your stack as this is where it gets more aggressive as they attack the small stacks. We all agreed that the 7th and 8th players would at least get their entry plus add-on back, they took it off the top 2 players, so we played on. I ended up in 6th place, where they chopped, which was OK with me, since it was a win/win for me. If I saw the next hand, I would have to go all-in anyway and still been in 6th place or another couple of rungs up the ladder and a higher finish. It was a much more pleasant experience than I expected for my first time playing Big O.
I'll most likely play in more of these tournaments.

I NEVER BLUFF



Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Feeling....................... LUCKY!


LUCK
"Chance (Luck ) favors the prepared mind." Louis Pasteur 

Luck will find you if you go looking for it, both the good and the bad, mostly the bad!
        Mental Exercise:
              Note who is playing the most hands, who is playing the least hands. 
                       What is the average raise by the loose aggressive players?
                       Who only calls? 
                       Who folds to raises? 
                       Who is aggressive against draws?

Bad Beats and Bonehead Blunders. 
Are the BBs, giving you the Heebie Jeebies, brought on by belligerent bluffing? 
          Bad Beat = Luck beat the best hand at the Turn or River and no one slow played.
          Bonehead Blunder = the best hand was trapped from the beginning or slow playing resulted 
                         in luck winning at the river. Don't give LUCK a chance to beat you at the river! 

                You have AA and slow play it to the river and get beat.
                You have AA and go all-in, reraising, before or after the flop, and get beat at the river.
One is a Bonehead Blunder and the other is a Bad Beat!

Aggression
The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging.
“In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!”
Being aggressive before the turn or river, might have caused your opponent to fold, instead of winning on the turn or at the river.

Loose Aggressive players try to manufacture luck by playing a lot of hands. They typically raise out of position when first to play, knowing that the tight passive players are likely to fold their marginal hands. They usually raise around 3 big blinds preflop, which also shuts down the players who have bought in for less than 50 big blinds and players who have less than 50 big blinds. 
Loose Aggressive players want action and will put in 10% of their stack with their marginal hands, middle connected and/or suited hands. When in position, you have to reraise these players with your top 15 hands and call with your top 25 hands. Out of position it's best to just call your top 15 to 20 hands and raise with your top 15 hands.

Experienced tournament players are likely to make a bluffing bet on the river, if they think the other player is a weak or timid player. A bluffing raise is more likely to be used if an experienced player thinks the other player is more concerned about conserving chips in the middle of the tournament.
If sandwiched between an All-in raise and a previous raiser, when an over card comes on the Flop, the raiser is likely to fold a smaller pair to a re-raise. A Semi-bluff should be used more than out-right bluffs, early in tournaments.

The Patience Factor: 
From the controversial book: Arnold Snyder, The Poker Tournament Formula 1
            Required Reading for Tournaments: Arnold Snyder's, The Poker Tournament Formula 2.
The blind structure in relation to the number of chips each player starts with is the primary consideration on deciding if you should even enter a tournament, yet alone on what your strategy should be. The lower the patience factor, the more aggressive you have to be.
The lower the patience factor, the more luck prevails over skill.

The best way to get lucky, is to keep your head in the game!
You don't get lucky before the flop.
All luck happens after the flop.
After the flop you must keep this in mind.
  • There are two types of hands in Texas Hold'em. 
  • A pair or better and a draw to a straight or flush. 
  • Every hand played after the flop is a contest between these two types of hands. 
  • The draws are broken down to connected cards, gapped cards, suited connectors and suited gapped cards. 
  • Anything else isn't worth looking at except when you are heads-up.

Your head can get into a kind of fog when you keep getting marginal hands or no playable hands for a couple of hours at a loose table.When this happens, it's best to take a walk for a few hands, which may help clear your mind a little.

I see a lot of players that change seats or even tables when the cards turn cold. I don't subscribe to the notion that if I change my seat, it will change my luck. You make your own luck, which is what those loose aggressive players are trying to do anyway by playing 80% of the hands and raising 50% or more with them, regardless of position. I love those players, when my head is in the game.


I NEVER BLUFF

Monday, May 30, 2016

Get your head in the game.....................Keep your head in the game!

You know your head isn't in the game, when you think of reasons to abandon the table when you keep losing to marginal hands. The hands are not coming your way and you can't justify playing the marginal hands most loose, as well as loose aggressive, players play just to get lucky on the flop. It's probably best to get up and walk around for a couple of orbits to clear the fog in your brain, or just leave.
Loose tables with loose aggressive players are very profitable, if you keep your head in the game. The low level games are usually loose and often loose aggressive. Loose aggressive tables are where you want to play. 



It's easy to lose focus when you aren't playing well or the hands aren't coming your way. I see a lot of players that change seats or even tables when the cards turn cold. I don't subscribe to the notion that if I change my seat, it will change my luck. You make your own luck, which is what those loose aggressive players are trying to do anyway by playing 80% of the hands and raising 50% or more with them, regardless of position. Some of them often use the straddle to build the pot. It's an action players move. I love those players, when my head is in the game. 

Keep your head in the game and raise the action players with your favorable position and range of hands and you have to know their range of hands.

What do Action Players play?
Loose Aggressive Tables average 4+ players willing to see the flop if the bets are less than 3x BB

LA players tend to bet 2x/3x BB w/Ax, Kx, Broadway connectors, IN or OUT of position.
They are not that concerned about the pot size, as most will raise to build the pot and eliminate tight players. These action players are are looking to get lucky and the only way to minimize their prospecting for luck is to attack them, especially those straddle players.

What do Tight Players play?
TA players will raise more often than Tight Passive players. Both have a similar range of hands, but neither one is a action player. The tight player is more likely to fold when the LA players raise the bet above their threshold of betting less than premium hands. 

IN position the TA players tend to call their bottom range and  raise with their top range of hands. OUT of position the TA players tend to call or raise with their top range of hands and are more dangerous than the action players which will release their hand after the flop, if they haven't hit something and/or don't have a good drawing possibility. Tight Passive and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to hold on when they hit the flop and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to raise when they hit top pair or make a set or better.

KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME.

I NEVER BLUFF