A Beautiful Theory

Updated 2/11/2017

A Beautiful Theory (Game Theory and Poker)
Forbes 12.14.06 b Tim Harford
http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/10/business-game-theory-tech-cx_th_games06_1212harford.html

A revolution in the social sciences began in the 1920s, when the man Time magazine called "the best brain in the world" decided he would work out how to win at poker. John von Neumann's quicksilver genius accelerated the development of the atomic bomb by a year, and he was one of the fathers of the computer.

Armed with Von Neumann's mathematics, even a computer could learn when to bluff.
Real poker is hugely more complicated--and so, too, is real life. Von Neumann may have played down this objection because he and Morgenstern developed a theory of "zero sum" games, such as poker, where one player's loss is the other player's gain. If you play the optimum strategy in that sort of situation, and the other player makes mistakes, you will win. But real-life games are not usually zero-sum. It is also a reminder that in most situations, the point is not to beat some opponent but to do well for yourself. That will involve understanding the man on the other side of the game. If you think he is rational, and he isn't, your strategy will go badly wrong.

Some brilliant mathematicians and economists have worked hard to patch up these holes in the Von Neumann project, including Nobel prize winners, the most famous of them all is John Nash. Von Neumann, consumed with envy, dismissed the young Nash's result as "trivial"--meaning, mathematically simple. Sure, it was simple enough, but only (when) Nash had pointed it out. As a practical advance in game theory, it was far from trivial.

The year 2000 saw a landmark in the use of game theory. It was pure Von Neumann: a lanky computer scientist by the name of Chris "Jesus" Ferguson won the World Series of Poker using the game theoretic calculations he had developed, run on powerful, modern computers, and committed to memory.

Game theory has a lot to contribute to the analysis of life, love and economics. But the game will only go according to plan if you're sure the other fellow knows the rules. In the immortal words of Dalton from Road House, "Be nice, until it’s time NOT to be nice".

Poker champ Chris 'Jesus' Ferguson discussed life lessons and game theory with panel at UCLA
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/7189848

(Update)
Sadly, Chris was a primary component of the Black Friday debacle.

I NEVER BLUFF

Updated 2/11/2017

The Power of Isolation

The objective of an isolation play is to make a wager big enough that it gets other players to fold, so you can be heads-up against one opponent. An isolation play can be used to isolate a tight player, bluffer, maniac, or a player on a draw. At loose tables, play tighter. At tight tables, play looser. Know who are the other players using the same tactic.

Whether it’s a tournament game or a ring game, Isolation is the key to building your stack. The object is to attempt to limit the field with your premium hands. Loose players use it to bluff or semi-bluff, some overuse it. Playing the isolation game is dependent on the ratio of BIG BLINDS to your stack size. You can limit the field with almost anything other than AA or KK, but always make at least a small bet when in position with AA or KK. Slow playing AA or KK can lead to big losses. The optimal situation is to have at least 100 Big Blinds. 
Arnold Snyder uses a Competitive Stack Factor of 60 big blinds as a minimum stack size to be competitive.

The first person to bet has the power. Position can change with each street, until heads up.

An A or K or Q will hit the flop 50% of the time or hit by the river 50% of the time. If you don't have one, someone does. You can almost estimate 10% for each player at the table, including yourself. With 8 players, it’s at least 80% that someone has an Ace, King, or Queen in their hand.

Pre-Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

STACK SIZES:

Less than 100BB: You must play small ball and be cautious with most of your playable hands, don't gamble.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 10 hands. Try to Isolate one player, but don’t try to push around the chip leader unless you have the nuts.

AA KK QQ must be raised if you are in position, and don’t be afraid to go all-in, do not slow play. Later you can use this to put others all-in when you think you have the best of it or the flop is "B" or less. (see Flop Ratings)

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

AA KK QQ can be played for a for a hit and run pre-flop, with a check raise or small bet followed by a re-raise if you are raised, regardless of the number of players in the hand.

Less than 50BB: You must play Tight Aggressive. Don’t gamble, but make the other players gamble. Take away their odds. Make it unprofitable to call your bet.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 5 hands.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

More than 100BB: Be aggressive, but only in relation to the ratio of other stacks to your stack and position.

If you are the chip leader, you should only bet according to the ratio of stack sizes, not pot size.

IN POSITION:

Always keep the pressure on when you have a playable hand and you are in position.

Switch between small ball and long ball depending on who is in the hand and if you think you are ahead or not.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play according the the pot size until you think you have the best of it, then switch to playing for stacks.

Switch between making probe bets and value bets to disguise your hand. You should only be trying to disguise your hand if you are in the lead and intend to keep it.

Post Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

3^rd Street (the Flop):

The old saying of "if it doesn't fit the flop, FOLD!"
Get in or get out. Let the gamblers gamble. If your hand is not good enough to make an isolation play, keep it small and fold to any raises where there are more than two players still in the hand. The more players in the hand, the more likely you will be beat at the river, if you don't force them out.

4^th Street:

The Power of Position reverses at 4th Street (the Turn). You are usually heads-up or three handed at this point.

Power is relevant to the size of your stack (your “Q”) compared to everyone else.

M ratio     Q ratio       Q Calculator

5^th Street:

You have what you have. If you weren't betting the best hand or able to control a weak player, you are toast.

I NEVER BLUFF

Poker's Mental Midgets and the art of Russian roulette

Let’s play a game of Russian roulette.

You are tied to your chair and can’t get up. Here’s a gun. Here’s the barrel of the gun, six chambers, all empty. Now watch me as I put a single bullet in the gun. I close the barrel and spin it. I put a gun to your head and pull the trigger. "Click". Lucky you!

Now I'm going to pull the trigger one more time. Which would you prefer, that I spin the chamber first, or that I just pull the trigger? 

(This is actually one of the game theory settings in learning game theory, but, using one or two bullets)

Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. Specifically, it is "the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers." The use of game theory in the social sciences has expanded, and game theory has been applied to political, sociological, and psychological behaviors as well.

Ok, do the math, then watch 'The Deer Hunter' movie for an interesting take on the mentality of Russian roulette players, or lack there of.

Mental Midgets play poker as if they are playing Russian roulette, willing to fire or go all-in preflop, hoping that:

• A. Everyone will fold and the Mental Midget gets to steal the blinds, which happens frequently.
• B. They will have to go up against only one person and the Mental Midget is at worst a 4 to 1 dog, which is not usually the case because there tends to be 2 or more  Mental Midgets in the same game.

If the Mental Midget does this with one of the top 10 hands, which is also not usually the case, they are likely to be at best a 60/40 favorite, as most challengers will also have a good hand, probably at least a top 20 hand.

The problem with this strategy is that it works every time but once and the problem with Mental Midgets is that they don't know when to stop and they end up shooting themselves eventually. Worse is that since there tends to be more than one Mental Midget at the same table, the luck factor is elevated beyond 50% and you now have at least 2 dogs fighting it out. I like to call it the 'Michael Vic' factor. I really like it when there are several Mental Midgets fighting it out and 3 or 4 of them are eliminated on the first hand, since I like to play multi-table sit-n-go games.

Not to be confused with the 'Kill Phil' strategy put forth by Rodman/Nelson or 'Kill Everyone' strategy by Nelson/Streib/Lee, Mental Midgets do not have any viable plan to win the tournament anymore than those who enter a tournament only to 'sit out' for the entire tournament hoping to get 'in the money' in the end.

Poker pros rarely go All-in before the final table and even more rare is an All-in bet - preflop. It's usually because they think they have the best of it or they are at a point where their stack will be too low to make the correct bets if they are going to see their hand all the way to the river. Except for the final table, good players don't really gamble on poker and they don't use the All-in bet as a bluff, unless they can afford to lose and they will still have a decent amount of chips to get back in the game.

Oh, about Russian roulette.

Does spinning the chamber cause the chamber with the bullet to fall to the bottom due to gravity?

I read a comment that if the gun is well maintained, the extra weight of the bullet will tend to make the chamber stop with the bullet at the bottom.

In that scenario, no one would ever die. However, revolvers 'click' as they are spun because there is a ratcheting mechanism which causes drag on the spin and allows the bullet to stop - anywhere. Then the 'cocking and/or firing, ratchets the chamber for the firing pin, which will move the chamber either into or out of the correct position to properly strike the bullet casing.

  



I Never Bluff