Black Swans, the impact of unpredictable occurrences

Black Swans are unknown unknown catastrophes or miracles, as opposed to known unknown coincidences or known known events, based on 4 things regarding knowledge, things you know that you know, things you know that you don't know, things that you don't know that you know, and things that you don't know that you don't know. I think more things are turning into things that I don't know that I know (forgot).

Trying to account for random occurrences in chance by looking for swings in the probability of success or disaster when you can't predict a Black Swan occurrence is really futile. The best you can hope for is to limit your disasters or losses and protect your successes or gains. You do this by setting limits and keeping within those limits or at least protecting part of your successes while hoping for a Black Swan miracle.

There are those who advocate continuing to play when you are on a losing streak, because you know you are playing correctly and those who advocate cutting your losses, because psychologically you're just playing head games with yourself. I think the smart thing is to at least take a break to regroup or reassess your play and the players in the game.

Whether it's playing poker (cash games) and looking for your hand to improve, your stack to grow or playing roulette and praying your number hits, if you're calculating the probabilities of success or failure, set limits on both. Losing all your chips is better than losing all your cash and it's always better to limit how much of your profits you are willing to give back, when the tide turns after being on a winning roll.
(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky's Law on SLOW Playing

USS Cairo was a City-class ironclad gunboat constructed for the Union Navy by James Buchanan Eads during the American Civil War, 1861, was named for Cairo, Illinois.

There is nothing Ironclad in playing poker.

OK, here's the deal. Poker players, professional and amature, hate players who slow play a hand.
That being said, there is no Sportsmanship in Poker, same thing with Hockey, but that another story. Unlike Hockey, Poker players are not supposed to cheat and slow playing is not cheating. It's what some players do to build the pot because they think they are invincible with hands like AA.
Slow playing will lose you money.

Here's my RULE or axiom:
If you can be beat at the river, you will be beat at the river, when it will lose you the most money.
If you have a hand like AA, KK, or QQ, you can slow play before the flop if you are the first to act and you have normally aggressive players after you, with AA, KK you should raise any bet they make at least 2x to 3x their bet, call with QQ; otherwise always play aggressive from start to finish.

About Slow Playing

Slow playing (also called sandbagging or trapping) is deceptive play in poker that is roughly the opposite of bluffing: betting weakly or passively with a strong holding rather than betting aggressively with a weak one. The flat call is one such play. The objective of the passive slow play is to lure opponents into a pot who might fold to a raise, or to cause them to bet more strongly than they would if the player had played aggressively (bet or raised). Slow playing sacrifices protection against hands that may improve and risks losing the pot-building value of a bet if the opponent also checks.

David Sklansky defines the following conditions for profitable slow plays:^[1]

• A player must have a very strong hand.
• The free card or cheap card the player is allowing to his opponents must have good possibilities of making them a second-best hand.
• That same free card must have little chance of giving an opponent a better hand or even giving them a draw to a better hand on the next round with sufficient pot odds to justify a call.
• The player must believe that he will drive out opponents by showing aggression, but can win a big pot if the opponents stay in the pot.
• The pot must not yet be very large.

*On 12 December 1862, while clearing mines from the river preparatory to the attack on Haines Bluff, the USS Cairo struck a "torpedo" (naval mine) detonated by volunteers hidden behind the river bank and she sank in 12 minutes; there were no casualties.

I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky

Updated 2/23/2017

Knowledge is POWER.
Here I am in my quest to improve, learning as much as I can about the games of poker. From Mike Sexton, "the game that takes a minute to learn but a lifetime to master". One of the things I try to do is to learn something new every day.

Trying to live each game by the Golden Rule of Poker:  

Patience is a virtue!

Golden Rule:   
Be Patient! Do not check, call, bet, raise or fold without asking yourself:

• What is this hand’s best possibility to win? 
• Who is in this hand and what is their play style and chip stack size? 

Always try to take the same amount of time to make a decision, call for "Time”, randomly.
Randomness is the key to table image! You need to create an image of being unpredictable. 

Who Am I?
According to the merge of Babylonian Celestial Omens, 2nd millennium BCE, and Egyptian Decanic Astrology, early 1st century BCE, now called Horoscopic Astrology,
I AM A GEMINI.I wonder which person showed up today?The phrasing is relevent to the other 2 parts of me as shown below.

Part 1
According to Myers-Briggs I am an E-N-T-P Extraversion - Intuiting - Thinking - Perceiving 
As far as scores go, first is Intuition (higher than the total of the other 3), second, but followed closely by Thinking, is Extraversion, and tying it all up is Perceiving.
(Interestingly, one of the side effects of Extraversion being bookended by Intuition and Thinking, is it tends to be subdued. Isn't it great to be a GEMINI?)

Any wonder why I like poker?

Extraversion: That's right! I have more than one version of what we are about to discuss. May not be what you thought, as there may be more than one version because the Gemini rules, --- Let's talk !
Intuitive: I have my own Tarot Cards and a cloudy Crystal Ball, ~~~~~ Let's Talk!!
Thinking: I think, therefore I am, I think? I'm not so sure about you though. ~~~~~ Let's talk!!!
Perceiving: Says it ALL!! You could be in trouble before you open your mouth. ~~~~~ Let's Talk!!!!
ENTP
Quick, ingenious, stimulating, alert, and outspoken. Resourceful in solving new and challenging problems. Adept at generating conceptual possibilities and then analyzing them strategically. Good at reading other people. Bored by routine, will seldom do the same thing the same way, apt to turn to one new interest after another.

Now we come to Part 2 of ME, and it's all about ME!

According to the Clifton Strength Quest TestI am - (in this order):
1: Learner
Learner People especially talented in the Learner theme have a great desire to learn and want to continuously improve. In particular, the process of learning, rather than the outcome, excites them.
2: Ideation
Ideation People especially talented in the Ideation theme are fascinated by ideas. They are able to find connections between seemingly disparate phenomena.
3: Strategic
Strategic People especially talented in the Strategic theme create alternative ways to proceed. Faced with any given scenario, they can quickly spot the relevant patterns and issues.
4: Individualization
Individualization People especially talented in the Individualization theme are intrigued with the unique qualities of each person. They have a gift for figuring out how people who are different can work together productively.
5: Achiever
Achiever People especially talented in the Achiever theme have a great deal of stamina and work hard. They take great satisfaction from being busy and productive.

Any wonder why I like poker?
In poker you need to learn everything about the game and the people. Once you have learned about them, you need to get ideas on how different people connect to the game, the thought process that people take playing the game. Once you have an idea of how different people play the game, you need a stratagy on using the information to win the game. Once you have a strategy to win, you need to adapt it to the unique qualities of each person playing the game. Once you know how to win over different people, you know how to acheive the goal of winning.
http://www.strengthsquest.com/

The Bottom Line:
Any wonder why I like poker?

"I Never Bluff"