Poker's Black Friday

Updated 2/11/2017

April 15th, 2011. Poker's Black Friday.
Fortunately I only play for real money in live games and I didn't have much real money online, back in the day. I've never really trusted online poker since Neteller stole what little real money I had put into the online games. I eventually got it back, as I expect most of the players will this time also. It will be interesting to see how the online poker millionaires recover from having their money frozen in time. Since the DOJ closed down the four major online poker sites, Pokerstars, Full Tilt, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet Poker, most of the blogs from the pros are about how slow the games are in Vegas. 30 hands an hour is ultra slow motion poker to an online poker junky.

Game play is down at all of the online poker sites world wide. There are still some sites that accept US players in real money games, but that may not last long. All of them still allow play money games, so that has not changed.  Online poker is still a great way to develop and improve your game. If aggression is king, online poker is your kingdom. Online poker will not be going completely away anytime soon. It has changed for now, but it will change again, and most likely for the better. One article likened it to the collapse of the stock market and 401k pension plans deflating.

There has been some speculation about online poker being totally dead in the US - forever - and most of the play will go to the brick and mortar games. Even though the DOJ has stated that the money in players accounts is accessible to the players, there are no payment processors in the US banking system. American poker players are hitting the casinos and card rooms, however most of the casinos and card rooms have had only a slight increase in activity.

I actually expect this to be a good thing for poker in the US, in the long run. I think that the regular casinos, card rooms, and Indian casinos will find a way to establish online poker for the US. Uncle Sam only wants to find a way to collect taxes from it and regulate it better.

I've never been acceptable to not being able to walk into a place of business and complete your transaction or make a complaint in person. You could never do that with an online site, you don't know who runs it or how to find them, yet alone talk to them.

I think you should be able to go the a local casino or card room and open an online account without using the internet, which would be a much easier process. You could then just go down to the casino or card room and make deposits or withdrawals, just like a bank, and still play poker online in your PJs. PokerStars and the rest of them may never be back, but new sites will find a way in. Only when I know the physical address of an online poker site will I likely go back to online poker.

Steely Dan Black Friday

I NEVER BLUFF

Poker's Mental Midgets and the art of Russian roulette

Let’s play a game of Russian roulette.

You are tied to your chair and can’t get up. Here’s a gun. Here’s the barrel of the gun, six chambers, all empty. Now watch me as I put a single bullet in the gun. I close the barrel and spin it. I put a gun to your head and pull the trigger. "Click". Lucky you!

Now I'm going to pull the trigger one more time. Which would you prefer, that I spin the chamber first, or that I just pull the trigger? 

(This is actually one of the game theory settings in learning game theory, but, using one or two bullets)

Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. Specifically, it is "the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers." The use of game theory in the social sciences has expanded, and game theory has been applied to political, sociological, and psychological behaviors as well.

Ok, do the math, then watch 'The Deer Hunter' movie for an interesting take on the mentality of Russian roulette players, or lack there of.

Mental Midgets play poker as if they are playing Russian roulette, willing to fire or go all-in preflop, hoping that:

• A. Everyone will fold and the Mental Midget gets to steal the blinds, which happens frequently.
• B. They will have to go up against only one person and the Mental Midget is at worst a 4 to 1 dog, which is not usually the case because there tends to be 2 or more  Mental Midgets in the same game.

If the Mental Midget does this with one of the top 10 hands, which is also not usually the case, they are likely to be at best a 60/40 favorite, as most challengers will also have a good hand, probably at least a top 20 hand.

The problem with this strategy is that it works every time but once and the problem with Mental Midgets is that they don't know when to stop and they end up shooting themselves eventually. Worse is that since there tends to be more than one Mental Midget at the same table, the luck factor is elevated beyond 50% and you now have at least 2 dogs fighting it out. I like to call it the 'Michael Vic' factor. I really like it when there are several Mental Midgets fighting it out and 3 or 4 of them are eliminated on the first hand, since I like to play multi-table sit-n-go games.

Not to be confused with the 'Kill Phil' strategy put forth by Rodman/Nelson or 'Kill Everyone' strategy by Nelson/Streib/Lee, Mental Midgets do not have any viable plan to win the tournament anymore than those who enter a tournament only to 'sit out' for the entire tournament hoping to get 'in the money' in the end.

Poker pros rarely go All-in before the final table and even more rare is an All-in bet - preflop. It's usually because they think they have the best of it or they are at a point where their stack will be too low to make the correct bets if they are going to see their hand all the way to the river. Except for the final table, good players don't really gamble on poker and they don't use the All-in bet as a bluff, unless they can afford to lose and they will still have a decent amount of chips to get back in the game.

Oh, about Russian roulette.

Does spinning the chamber cause the chamber with the bullet to fall to the bottom due to gravity?

I read a comment that if the gun is well maintained, the extra weight of the bullet will tend to make the chamber stop with the bullet at the bottom.

In that scenario, no one would ever die. However, revolvers 'click' as they are spun because there is a ratcheting mechanism which causes drag on the spin and allows the bullet to stop - anywhere. Then the 'cocking and/or firing, ratchets the chamber for the firing pin, which will move the chamber either into or out of the correct position to properly strike the bullet casing.

  



I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky's Law on SLOW Playing

USS Cairo was a City-class ironclad gunboat constructed for the Union Navy by James Buchanan Eads during the American Civil War, 1861, was named for Cairo, Illinois.

There is nothing Ironclad in playing poker.

OK, here's the deal. Poker players, professional and amature, hate players who slow play a hand.
That being said, there is no Sportsmanship in Poker, same thing with Hockey, but that another story. Unlike Hockey, Poker players are not supposed to cheat and slow playing is not cheating. It's what some players do to build the pot because they think they are invincible with hands like AA.
Slow playing will lose you money.

Here's my RULE or axiom:
If you can be beat at the river, you will be beat at the river, when it will lose you the most money.
If you have a hand like AA, KK, or QQ, you can slow play before the flop if you are the first to act and you have normally aggressive players after you, with AA, KK you should raise any bet they make at least 2x to 3x their bet, call with QQ; otherwise always play aggressive from start to finish.

About Slow Playing

Slow playing (also called sandbagging or trapping) is deceptive play in poker that is roughly the opposite of bluffing: betting weakly or passively with a strong holding rather than betting aggressively with a weak one. The flat call is one such play. The objective of the passive slow play is to lure opponents into a pot who might fold to a raise, or to cause them to bet more strongly than they would if the player had played aggressively (bet or raised). Slow playing sacrifices protection against hands that may improve and risks losing the pot-building value of a bet if the opponent also checks.

David Sklansky defines the following conditions for profitable slow plays:^[1]

• A player must have a very strong hand.
• The free card or cheap card the player is allowing to his opponents must have good possibilities of making them a second-best hand.
• That same free card must have little chance of giving an opponent a better hand or even giving them a draw to a better hand on the next round with sufficient pot odds to justify a call.
• The player must believe that he will drive out opponents by showing aggression, but can win a big pot if the opponents stay in the pot.
• The pot must not yet be very large.

*On 12 December 1862, while clearing mines from the river preparatory to the attack on Haines Bluff, the USS Cairo struck a "torpedo" (naval mine) detonated by volunteers hidden behind the river bank and she sank in 12 minutes; there were no casualties.

I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky's Law on ALL-IN

This happens more than you think. You will go all-in with the worst hand twice and win, only to go all-in later with the best hand and lose.

Avoid going all-in early in the game or in tournaments unless you have the nuts or you are short stacked and this is the best hand you have seen and the blinds are coming around to you.

Tournaments are more than just about survival, but if you want to survive, resist going all in, even at the final table.
Going All-In is not a bluffing option, unless you are the chip leader or head-to-head and have a playable hand.



All-In Plays: 

1. Made by the Chip Leader, usually with the top hand and will accept getting beat on the river, because he will still be in the game and probably still have lots of chips.
2. Made by Medium Stacks: usually means they have the top hand, possibly the nuts, and it will take a miracle or bad beat to lose. Also used by aggressive players against weak players.
3. Made by Short Stacks: Usually at least a 3:1 dog if not a 2:1 winning edge with a premium hand. Last ditch effort.
4. Made by Mental Midgets: Usually from out of position and trying to steal the blinds or when they are getting low on chips and the first to bet. They will usually try it more than once and frequently with back to back hands. They don't last long.

I Never Bluff