The Four Success Principles of Poker

Updated 2/11/2017

From "Action Dan" Harrington

Principle No 1: The Strength Principle
In general, you want to bet your strong hands, check your mediocre hands, and fold (or sometimes bluff) with your weakest hands

That shouldn't be too hard - NOT?
Obviously you want to bet your very strong hands to build a bigger pot when you're likely to win. With your middle hands you better check because it’s harder to make money when you bet these. Better hands than yours are likely to call or raise, while weak hands probably fold. Folding your weakest hands is quite obvious. Bluffing with your weakest hands might be not so obvious, but then again if the bluff works, you've gained value from a hand that had none.

Principle no.2: The Aggression Principle

The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging.

"War is about power and the 'card game of power' involves spilling blood, creating sorrow, abusing others, AND betraying trust, assuming success, the ability to squirm out of tight spots. Raising bets to their highest to reduce the field and making your mediocre hand better, these are the coin of power, not goodness, not light." Victor Lee

“In a balance of mutual terror............ Whoever acts first, has the advantage!"

In general, aggression (betting and raising) is better than passivity (checking and calling)

Aggressive actions have two possible outcomes:

1. your opponent could fold to your bet, or 
2. he could call your bet and you may win at the showdown. 

Passive actions, in the contrary, have just one, at the showdown. 

2 options are better than 1.

Principle no.3: The Betting Principle
In general, a successful bet must be able to do one of 3 things:

1. force a better hand to fold, 
2. force a weaker hand to call, or 
3. cause a drawing hand to draw to unfavorable odds.

A bet can thus make money in three ways.

1. If you can chase away a better hand, you won a pot you normally would have lost. 
2. If you get a weaker hand to call, you've got more money into the pot. 
3. The same goes if you let somebody call a draw at unfavorable odds

     If you don’t think a bet could accomplish one of these things, just don’t bet.

Principle no.4: The Deception Principle
Never do the same thing all of the time.

This is quite clear. Be surprising, don’t act predictively!
In order to be successful at poker, you need your opponents to keep guessing; about your bets, your folds, and how you play the ranges of hands you do play.

Look at your watch when you have to make a decision, if the second hand is on between the 9 and the 12, go ahead and check or limp or Call or BET.
It's a random action and it will keep them from pushing you too often. Using 10 to 12, if out of position, is about 17% (counting the 12) and using 9 to 12, in position, is about 23% (not counting the 12).
Randomness will keep them guessing and improve your tight image. You can use a different random trigger on the flop, turn, or river, like which suit to use as the trigger. Be creative, but consistent!

I NEVER BLUFF

The Three Strategic Principles of Poker

Updated 2/11/2017

Playing poker well involves more than knowing which cards beat what. It involves more than memorizing the percentages and odds. It involves more than being able to detect tells from changes in someone’s posture, or in the way they glanced at their chips. Understanding the overriding principles of poker is far more important and valuable than being “a good bluffer”. The basic principles of poker override all correct strategies and playing styles.

Here are the principles:

Patience

Patience is the key to successful poker. Whether you are playing in a cash game, or a tournament, you will need this attribute to be a consistent winner. Most hands that you are dealt in poker are not worth playing, and if you start playing trash hands, then your results will usually be trash too.

Occasionally you will be dealt unplayable cards hand after hand. It will seem that you are never going to get any worthwhile cards again, and you will be tempted to play a rubbish hand just because you haven’t played any for a while. Don’t let it get to you. All good players go through stretches where they have bad cards and have to fold, over and over again. Patience is one of the main points that separate the good players from the bad. Patience is more important in Sit and Go tournaments and most important in Cash or Ring games.

Bide your time, and only play hands when your cards and the situation are both right.

Aggression

Once you get the cards that you were waiting for, aggression becomes paramount. It is no good to get dealt AA, if all that happens is that you checked and called on each round of betting, only to get beat on the river when they catch a card that fits their draw.

If you have a hand that is likely to be the best, BET!
If someone bets first, and you still think that your hand is better than their hand, RAISE. Get as much money into the pot as you can. Get it all in if your hand is strong enough and your opponent is inclined to play along with you.

When betting with a strong hand you either want to get more money into the pot when someone calls you with a worse hand, or you want to win the pot immediately (which stops a worse hand from getting lucky and hitting a card that would beat you).  Sometimes your opponent will call with a worse hand, and then beat you with a lucky card anyway. Don't let that bother you. As long as you get your money in as a favorite, you've played correctly.

Using aggression to get maximum value from good hands, is one of the most important principles of poker.

Deception

The deception principle is this: all actions you take must contain at least an element of deception.

It is very important in poker that you don’t allow your opponents to learn exactly how you play. If you are playing Texas Hold'em and raise to $20 when you have Aces, $18 when you have Kings, $16 when you have Queens, $14 when you have Jacks etc, it won't take long for your opponents to work out what you are doing.

But if you raise with Aces 85% of the time, and 15% of the time just call or limp, then your opponents can't ever be completely certain what you have. Use your watch, your second hand specifically, to make random plays.

Randomness is the key to deception.

Look at your watch when you have to make that decision, if the second hand is on between the 9 and the 12, go ahead and limp. It's a random bet and it will keep them from pushing you too often. Using 10 to 12, if out of position, is about 17% (counting the 12) and using 9 to 12, in position, is about 23% (not counting the 12). Randomness will keep them guessing and improve your tight image.

Raising the same amount whenever you decide to raise also makes it harder for your opponents to work out what you have. Let’s say you decide to raise to 2 big blinds about 85% of the times that you are dealt AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ, and just call the other 15% of the time. Now it becomes very hard for your opponents to work out what you have. Because you are usually raising with good hands (as you should) but occasionally just calling with exactly the same hands, you make yourself harder to read.

Let’s take the concept a step further. Let’s say you decide on a strategy that involves calling with pocket 2’s through to pocket 10s, and you decide 80% of the time is a good percentage to call. The remaining 20% of the time you raise.

Now even if your opponents knew your strategy exactly, they still wouldn’t know if your raise means that you have AA or just 22. They can't tell what you have when you just call either, because you might have 44, or you might have AK.

You have made your moves much more difficult for your opponents to read, and anything that makes your opponents’ job harder, is to your advantage.

If you can master these three principles of poker, then you should be the one walking away with the money.

I NEVER BLUFF

The Two Primary Principles of Poker

Updated 2/11/2017

Principle 1
The goal is to MAKE a PROFIT. The goal of Poker is not keeping up with the amount of hands that most players play, but to earn money.


You'll do better if you gamble less.
You should be having fun, but note the players around the table and the gains and losses for each. You'll see that most of the losers are those who play the most hands. Keep in mind that some players look for luck, and occasionally find it and their stack will grow until bad luck also finds them, because they are playing too many hands. You want to play against those players that look for luck, but play only the good hands and you will reap rewards from their bad luck.


Why? Because they often engage in more hands, as they have weak cards in hands that will not allow them to beat their opponents. They are also looking to keep the number of players who will want to see the next card down to a minimum, heads up if possible. They also look for weak players or players who don't play many hands, so you may have to play some marginal hands if you're the next to bet and the loose aggressor is the only other one in the hand. Play some marginal hands or limp, but only about 20% to 25% of the time. Look at your watch when you have to make that decision, if the second hand is on between the 9 and the 12, go ahead and limp. It's a random bet and it will keep them from pushing you too often. Using 10 to 12, if out of position, is about 17% (counting the 12) and using 9 to 12, in position, is about 23% (not counting the 12). Randomness will keep them guessing and improve your tight image.


The goal is to earn money, not to make a killing, so try not to over bet if you don't have the nuts or if you want them to think you have the balls. Be prepared to give up a good hand if you think you're beat. It's the art of "You have to know when to Hold'em and know when to Fold'em".


Principle 2 – Play the GOOD parts 

Ask yourself the question: What differentiates playing your game from your opponents play?

Answer: Your 2 pocket cards. Everything starts from pre-flop action.

After the flop, everything is a contest between a DRAW and a MADE hand.
You must commit yourself to a hand only if your pockets cards give you an edge over your opponents or a reasonable probability of success.


And psychologically in all this, where is the famous BLUFF in Poker?
Contrary to popular belief, bluffing is rarely used and not even a practice used very much by professionals in Poker, except in heads up play and shorthanded games. It looks good on TV, it's supposed to. That's why the shows are successful, but they are not really teaching you good poker. Real poker, live poker, would be boring if it wasn't for the sensational or dramatic surprise.

Before talking about psychology, think about technique and strategy. Continually read about and watch good poker.

I NEVER BLUFF

The Peter Principle and Poker

Updated 2/11/2017

The Peter Principle and Poker

@Flop Turn River

 For those of you who aren't familiar with it, the peter principle states that, "successful members of a hierarchical organization are eventually promoted to their highest level of competence, after which further promotion raises them to a level at which they are not competent." I think that this often applies to poker.

These types of stories seem way to common. Person X starts w/ a $100 initial deposit and quickly builds it up to $300 or so playing $10 NL. They then move up to $25 NL...all goes well and their bankroll swells to $1000 dollars. They, again, promote themselves to $50 NL and things go great! Their bankroll soars to $3000 and they are running hot. Then, they move up to $100 NL and...Disaster. They are getting stacked left and right. Their monsters never get paid off and their bankroll is decimated. Soon they have dropped 2/3 of their buy in and are faced with either dropping down a level or busting out completely. Now their ego comes in and tells them that they shouldn't drop down as they are "too good" for these limits etc. Before they know it they are broke and forced to grind it out w/$50 at 10 NL again.

I think that this is a situation where a poker player falls victim to the peter principle. In effect, he continues to promote himself up levels too quickly when he has not played enough hands at that level to truly judge his competence. This is worsened by the fact that he or she could simply be running hot at a level where they are not truly skilled enough to play at and when his or her game is full of leaks. Once they reach a level at which they are not competent their ego refuses to let them back off and plug leaks at the low limits and destroys them completely.

To avoid the peter principle, I suggest getting software like poker tracker and track the number of BB won per 100 hands over 30K hands or so. This will give you a great idea of whether or not you are truly beating the game. I also suggest not immediately moving up to a new level when you have the right bankroll to do it. Play a certain number of hands in each level and observe the other games before you move up. Put the oppents hands into PT and see how they play. Know what you are up against and choose your games wisely! Think of this as getting reconnaissance on the other players. Poker is a game of information and the more you have the easier it is.

In closing, Don't fall victim to the peter principle. Know your skill level, know your opponents, know your limits and don't move up just because you have a nice bankroll.

Another view comes from @CardSharp

“In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence” - Dr. Lawrence Peter, The Peter Principle

“In a cardroom, every player tends to move up until he can no longer beat the game”.

Any plan for your poker career must insure that your skills increase at a rate adequate to keep up with the stakes you are playing. If your plan doesn’t account for this, it is doomed to failure.

Conservative Bankroll Management

I've chosen to call the process of managing your career such that you stay in games you can beat “Conservative Bankroll Management” but it could just as easily be “Conservative Poker Career Management” - that’s just not as catchy. In any case, here’s what I believe you have to know and do to avoid the Peter Principle trap:

@In Defense Of Grinding - The ‘Peter Principle’ And Poker

All in all, "you don't raise to the level of your expectations, you actually fall to the level of your training." Archilochus

I NEVER BLUFF

Limping & Sun-Tzu

Updated 2/11/2017

I was watching one of the poker shows on TV, I try to record most of them. One of the announcers asked the other, "I wonder what The Art of War (Sun-Tzu) has to say about limping?"
Being a advocate of The Art of War and Poker, I thought I'd take a look at it. There has already been a good book on the subject written by David Apostolico, Tournament Poker and the Art of War, and there is also a web site devoted to it. Sun Tzu's Art of Poker

From "The Art of War" by Sun-Tzu
In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack:
the direct -betting/raising- and the indirect -checking/limping-;
These two in combination give rise to an endless series of maneuvers.
The direct and the indirect lead on to each other in turn.

It is like moving in a circle — you never come to an end.

    (It's also an effective act of randomness to keep your opponent off balance.)

Masking strength with weakness is effected by tactical dispositions.
Thus one who is skillful at keeping the enemy on the move maintains deceitful appearances, according to which the enemy will act.
He sacrifices something, (so) the enemy may snatch at it.

• Simulated disorder postulates perfect discipline,
• Simulated fear postulates courage; 
• Simulated weakness postulates strength. It's all part of the Lying Game of Poker!

If we wish to fight, the enemy can be forced to an engagement even though he (is) sheltered behind a high rampart and a deep ditch -a wall of chips-. All we need do is attack some other place that he will be obliged to relieve (defend).
If we do not wish to fight, we can prevent the enemy from engaging us even though the lines of our encampment be merely traced out on the ground. All we need do is to throw something odd and unaccountable in his way -Randomness.

• The rule is, not to besiege walled cities if it can possibly be avoided.

By holding out baits -limping/slow playing-, he keeps him on the march; then with a body of picked men he lies in wait for him.
By holding out advantages -showing weakness- to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near.

Whoever is first -to act-with -active or passive Aggression- in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle - will arrive exhausted.
Patience is a virtue in poker, more so in cash games than tournament, however, 

“In a balance of mutual terror, whoever ACTS FIRST has the ADVANTAGE!"

• Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.

Numerical weakness - lack of chips - comes from having to prepare against possible attacks. Numerical strength -many chips-, (by) compelling our adversary to make these preparations against us.

• Though the enemy be stronger in numbers, we may prevent him from fighting. 
• Scheme so as to discover his plans and the likelihood of their success.

If we are able thus to attack an inferior force with a superior one, our opponents will be in dire straits.

• When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped.

Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances -Randomness and Deciet- .

"Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows"; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.
Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions. He who can modify his tactics -Randomness- in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain.

• So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.

So, Limping is a weakness than can mask strength.

I NEVER BLUFF