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Sunday, March 12, 2017

Bicycle Casino Mega Satellite to the WSOP Circuit Event 8

My 1st Mega Satellite tournament ever @ The Bicycle Casino.
They paid 11 seats out of the field of  91, with the eleventh one getting about $1200. Not sure how that works if you don't want to spend the extra $400 to buy-in for the WSOP Circuit Event, means you would be out of pocket for about $630, after netting around $1000, from the Satellite event. Not too shabby if you could just cash out instead, giving you an ROI of about 3.35 times the buy-in.

POST GAME SUMMARY:
Not a Deep Stack Tournament. 
Your 160 M is quickly reduced to an M of 40 after the 1st hour with a utility of only 26.7 or about 2.5 orbits to get a couple of playable hands.
You need to double up by the 7th level or the blinds and ante will eat you up because you need to bet about  7.5 to 10 big blinds to win a hand.
This tournament leans heavily toward the LUCK side, as evidenced by the tighter play, and as shown by my final hand. Luck beat me early on, when I figured to win and had the best hand, but didn't show up on my final hand.


Skill Factor: 35.13
Luck Factor: 64.87
You need to double up around Level 7 to keep your Competitive  Stack (CS) above 60 Big Blinds. You can get more aggressive if your Optimal Competitive Stack (OCS) can stay above 60 Big Blinds starting at Level 5, when the Ante kicks in.
The table was running at about 30 hands per  hour or 10 hands per blind change.
Table Type: more tight aggressive than loose or even loose aggressive
Player Types: mostly tight aggressive
I made it to Level 8, a little over 2 hours into the tournament.

Most memorable hand:
Had won a couple of small pots, most raises were in the 3 BB range, both preflop and postflop, still had about 10k in chips when LUCK reared it's ugly head.
At level 4, I had ATs @ DB, everyone folded to me, I raised to 3BB, SB folded, BB called
flop  67T, (2 diamonds) BB checked, I raised to 3BB and was called ,
turn was an A, giving me 2 pair to a possible flush draw, BB raised to 3BB, I went all-in and BB called (I had him covered)
River was a diamond, giving him the nut flush w/A9 of diamonds.

My final hand, @ level 8, in Kill Phil mode with A3 in the BB, everyone folded to me, went all-in with 1325, called by SB who had JQ, flop was xxJ and his pair won when nothing helped me on the turn or the river.
Still not that bad if I would have made it to the bigger event which looks to get about 800 players and $250,000 or more to 1st place.

It should have a Skill Factor of about 177 and a Luck Factor of only about 27, ROI of about 1,087 time your buy-in of $230, which is the only reason to play this satellite. Of course and ROI of about 150 times the $1675 isn't too shabby either.

I NEVER BLUFF


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