Lions and Tigers and Bears, OH MY!

Updated 2/11/2017

There are the 3 top cards in poker that prevail in anyone's 2 hold cards. 
Everyone plays Aces, Kings, and Queens, some with almost any other. 
The "Momma Bear or Queen" will be the most fierce card in the deck. Even Q7 or Q8 (unsuited) is a great hand to some players. To that extent, one of these 3 cards will hit the board about 50% of the time.
If you have one of them, you need to be aware of the ones you don't have, that end up hitting the board. If you don't have one, odds are better than 50%, someone does. Having 2 of them, AK, AQ, KQ, gives you the opportunity to gamble pre-flop. They are still just drawing cards, so don't go crazy, but most payers are not likely to throw them away pre-flop, regardless of the bets and raises.

Pre-Flop:
An Ace, King, or Queen will hit the flop about 50% of the time, so if it didn't show up, there's a good chance it will by the river. If you have the Queen and a good kicker and it hits the flop, you need to bet it to eliminate those who are waiting for their Ace or King to hit. The King is not so bad because you can usually chase it away, but people just love to hold on their Ace, especially if their other card already hit the flop.

After the flop:
Now we are down to betting into 4th street, or betting after the flop, so we are talking outs vs outs. You have one of the top 3 cards and are still in the hand because the betting has been low or everyone is just checking and waiting for their card. You have 3 outs or about 14% to hit your card vs 28% that one of the others will hit. 2 to 1 against you. If you are in the lead, you need to at least make a value bet, but that gives 3 to one odds, so you will likely be called. Bet the pot and give 2 to one, and you may also be called. You need to chase them away with about 1 and a half times the pot to 2 times the pot to put some pressure on them. If you have AK, AQ, KQ and one hits, your odds are reversed, but 3:1 odds are the minimum you are looking at. In order to play any of these, you need a deep stack or you are just gambling.

4th Street (Turn)
Betting into Fifth street, the odds are worse. 12:1 for you and only 6:1 for the others. Holding an Ace is optimal and preferred to holding the King or Queen. Even holding KQ and waiting for one to fall on the river is a big gamble, even with 8:1 odds to hit the King or Queen.

5th Street (the River)
You have what you have. Bet into weakness or check and determine what either of you have to lose.


I NEVER BLUFF

Updated 2/11/2017

The Power of Isolation

The objective of an isolation play is to make a wager big enough that it gets other players to fold, so you can be heads-up against one opponent. An isolation play can be used to isolate a tight player, bluffer, maniac, or a player on a draw. At loose tables, play tighter. At tight tables, play looser. Know who are the other players using the same tactic.

Whether it’s a tournament game or a ring game, Isolation is the key to building your stack. The object is to attempt to limit the field with your premium hands. Loose players use it to bluff or semi-bluff, some overuse it. Playing the isolation game is dependent on the ratio of BIG BLINDS to your stack size. You can limit the field with almost anything other than AA or KK, but always make at least a small bet when in position with AA or KK. Slow playing AA or KK can lead to big losses. The optimal situation is to have at least 100 Big Blinds. 
Arnold Snyder uses a Competitive Stack Factor of 60 big blinds as a minimum stack size to be competitive.

The first person to bet has the power. Position can change with each street, until heads up.

An A or K or Q will hit the flop 50% of the time or hit by the river 50% of the time. If you don't have one, someone does. You can almost estimate 10% for each player at the table, including yourself. With 8 players, it’s at least 80% that someone has an Ace, King, or Queen in their hand.

Pre-Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

STACK SIZES:

Less than 100BB: You must play small ball and be cautious with most of your playable hands, don't gamble.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 10 hands. Try to Isolate one player, but don’t try to push around the chip leader unless you have the nuts.

AA KK QQ must be raised if you are in position, and don’t be afraid to go all-in, do not slow play. Later you can use this to put others all-in when you think you have the best of it or the flop is "B" or less. (see Flop Ratings)

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

AA KK QQ can be played for a for a hit and run pre-flop, with a check raise or small bet followed by a re-raise if you are raised, regardless of the number of players in the hand.

Less than 50BB: You must play Tight Aggressive. Don’t gamble, but make the other players gamble. Take away their odds. Make it unprofitable to call your bet.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 5 hands.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

More than 100BB: Be aggressive, but only in relation to the ratio of other stacks to your stack and position.

If you are the chip leader, you should only bet according to the ratio of stack sizes, not pot size.

IN POSITION:

Always keep the pressure on when you have a playable hand and you are in position.

Switch between small ball and long ball depending on who is in the hand and if you think you are ahead or not.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play according the the pot size until you think you have the best of it, then switch to playing for stacks.

Switch between making probe bets and value bets to disguise your hand. You should only be trying to disguise your hand if you are in the lead and intend to keep it.

Post Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

3^rd Street (the Flop):

The old saying of "if it doesn't fit the flop, FOLD!"
Get in or get out. Let the gamblers gamble. If your hand is not good enough to make an isolation play, keep it small and fold to any raises where there are more than two players still in the hand. The more players in the hand, the more likely you will be beat at the river, if you don't force them out.

4^th Street:

The Power of Position reverses at 4th Street (the Turn). You are usually heads-up or three handed at this point.

Power is relevant to the size of your stack (your “Q”) compared to everyone else.

M ratio     Q ratio       Q Calculator

5^th Street:

You have what you have. If you weren't betting the best hand or able to control a weak player, you are toast.

I NEVER BLUFF

Poker outside the box.

Updated 2/11/2017

Poker pros are action freaks. The don't just play poker, they are so easily bored during the game that they have to play games within games. Side bets,  Proposition bets, insurance, running it twice, etc.

Double-flop Hold'em
An alternative to the traditional formats is, as the name suggests, to have two flops (and turns and rivers), now they call it "running it twice". In this game the pot is split between the winner according to each board, although it’s probable that someone somewhere has tried to play double flop hi-lo! The game can also be played with variations of hole card numbers and discards, which make things a lot more interesting. Two flops introduces key decisions like the choice between making an all-out attempt to win on one board (and perhaps scoop an opponent attempting to do the same) or trying to have some shot at both, or choosing between a combination of made hands and draws when you come to discard.

How does Insurance work?
Let's work with other numbers first just so I can be sure I'm doing all the math correctly. Let's say you're a 75% favorite. You win 75% of the time and lose 25% of the time, so you are a 75:25 favorite, or 3:1.

Let's make the insurance fully fair right now, so the rate will be 3:1 as well. We'll play for $10.

If you win the pot, which you will do often, you pay the $10. If you lose the pot, which you will do less often, you get paid 3 times that amount, or $30.

The way you can remember is that you pay the insurance the opposite of the pot -- win the pot, lose the insurance, but lose the pot and you win the insurance. If you're a favorite, you will win more than you lose, so you should pay the smaller amount when you win the pot. When you lose the pot in the rare situations, you then get a consolation prize that's bigger than what you would have paid. In other words, more frequent event involves less money and the less frequent event involves more money.

For 70%, it's 70:30, which is the same as 7:3, or (7/3):1, which is 2.33:1. It's just division. If you are giving insurance and are not in the pot, remember things are reversed from above. If the guy wins the pot, you get some of it. If he loses, you have to pay him. So, when you make money, it's the '1' in the ratio. When you pay out, it's the '2.33' in the ratio. To make it in your favor, just reduce your pay out, like give 2:1 odds.

Hold'em hi-lo
As you might imagine, in the search for different variations, hold’em games have often been played hi-lo as well. Crazy pineapple and Tahoe in particular allow for greater degrees of flexibility in going both ways. In the latter game A-A-2 is obviously the dream combination, although A-2-3 also allows for flexibility against being counterfeited for low. Since it is much harder to scoop by winning in both directions in variations of hold’em hi-lo which have a qualifier of 8 or better (i.e. the low hand must be five differently-valued cards of 8 or below), it is important to watch how the board develops. The board can make the difference between a chance to win everything or realizing you’re only playing for half and then playing accordingly.

Propositions for playing marginal hands like 72 and winning the pot outright or with a bluff. Propositions are bets outside the chips in the pot, something like an ante, but the money goes to the winner after the hand is done.

I NEVER BLUFF

The Poker Cruise?

Updated 2/11/2017

Not a real poker cruise, but they did have poker on our cruise to Mexico, stopping at Mazatlan, Puerto Vallarta, and Cabo San Lucas.
We went on Holland America, the "Oosterdam", from San Diego, which used an electronic poker table made by Poker Tek. It was so enjoyable that we plan to take more cruises in the future. (First Real Cruise)

I played in the daily poker tournament, really more like a Sit and Go poker game, which is my favorite

There was a $60 entry, $50 to the prize pool, which paid 1st and 2nd place only, and $10 entry per person went to the house. You get $2,000 in starting chips and up to 10 players could sit comfortably. The blinds start at 25/50, only about 40M, and increase each 12 minutes with a 60 second timer and there was a $25 ante about the 4th level. It's a Fast Tournament, Turbo actually, but you can use some skill during first 30 minutes, after that it's more luck than skill. Players tend to be more of the "home game type" and some internet experienced poker types than brick and mortar type. Not much tournament experience. It was a fun game, not too serious,

I managed to win the first 3 tournaments, and entered 6 of the 7 tournaments. I rarely had to bluff, as the tables were more on the tight, small ball, side. Unlike the real games with real dealers, you could take a bet back, even an all-in bet, OK for these fun, easy going, social games, but poker pros would have some difficulty with it. I didn't play in any of the regular cash games, so I'm not sure how they played.

Many cruise ships are using this Poker Tek system. It was easy to use, could have used some sound effects for the poker chips and dealing the cards for a more realistic effect, but that may be more of a programing decision by the cruise line or gaming room. Many people commented that they miss playing with the chips and using some tactics associated with reaching for chips and looking at the cards.

I can see a big future for electronic poker tables, but I don't see it taking over the main poker rooms in casinos. The sound effects would be a good marketing tool to help bring some players towards the main poker room, if placed close by or on the fringes of the poker room with daily small stakes tournaments, shootouts, sit n go games, and satellites to bigger games, kind of like the loose slots you see in casinos. This would allow for more turnover of players instead of having players sit for hours playing $1/$2 games waiting for a tournament to start. It could also be a good game for teaching different poker games in small poker rooms and casinos, where you don't need to train dealers for Omaha, Stud, and Razz games.

(Motley Fool) certainly believe(s) there is a place for automated tables in the casino and card rooms. (2006)

Lightning Poker has decided to withdraw its federal charge against PokerTek following a statement by Pokertek's president. (2007)

Lightning Poker Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against PokerTek (2008)

PokerTek Says Lightning Poker's Patent Lawsuit is Without Merit. (2008)

PokerTek & Lightning Gaming settle lawsuit (10/27/2008)
PokerTek, Inc. and Lightning Gaming have settled the litigation over the automated poker games the two vendors produce. Lighting Gaming had filed lawsuit against PokerTek, alleging that PokerTek’s PokerPro automated poker table infringed against Lightning’s patents for its Lightning Poker game. The two vendors reportedly reached a mutually agreeable settlement. The terms of the settlement are confidential, but both parties have dropped all pending litigation. “We’re pleased to put these matters behind us,” commented PokerTek CEO Chris Halligan. “We’re focused on building a great business at PokerTek.”

PokerTek, Inc. and Lightning Gaming have settled the litigation over the automated poker games the two vendors produce. Lighting Gaming had filed lawsuit against PokerTek, alleging that PokerTek’s PokerPro automated poker table infringed against Lightning’s patents for its Lightning Poker game. The two vendors reportedly reached a mutually agreeable settlement. The terms of the settlement are confidential, but both parties have dropped all pending litigation. “We’re pleased to put these matters behind us,” commented PokerTek CEO Chris Halligan. “We’re focused on building a great business at PokerTek.”

I Never Bluff

POKER - The Liar's Game of 'Go Fish'.

Updated 2/11/2017

Remember the good old days as a kid and playing Go Fish with your brothers, sisters, friends and family?

Poker is the same game, but with a twist.

In the game of Go Fish, you are looking at cards in your hand and asking someone if they have one. If they do, they have to give all of them to you and if they don't then everyone else playing knows what you have in your hand and can ask for it. In the kids’ version of Go Fish, you could not lie. You could not ask for cards you did not have and they had to tell the truth. If they had some they would give them to you or tell you to "Go Fish".

Poker, on the other hand, is all about lying. The big difference is that you are not asking what specific cards someone is holding. Poker is a game where players play different ranges of cards. Loose players may play a large range of cards and tight players may play a narrow range of cards, all depending on how much they like to gamble, or how much risk their money's worth.

When you make a bet, you are actually asking a question of your opponents. If you are the first one to bet pre-flop, you are really asking the players if they can beat the range of cards you are representing. That's why poker players are fond of saying, "you don't play the cards, you play the player". No one knows what anyone else has. After a time they know pretty much which cards you like to play and how those cards may vary from position to position at the table.

If you are a tight player and everyone knows you are a tight player and you are the first to bet, you are basically telling them, "I have great cards so you had better have a monster hand to beat me".

If you are a loose player and every one knows you are a loose player, you a basically saying "I have cards I think have the potential to beat your cards, so you had better have a monster hand to beat me." You tell them this by the size of your bet and how much you believe it is the best hand or can become the best hand.

The game gets interesting according the various types of players you are playing against. Loose players gamble more and tight players gamble less, but both players have to lie from time to time. Loose players lie more, based on the fact that they are involved in lots of hands. But on a percentage basis, a tight player can actually be lying more just by playing slightly more hands.

It's even more interesting when you factor in the probability of hands into the number of liars playing a hand. If the fact that, at a full table, someone will get pocket pairs once every 16 hands, then when a normal 3 times the big blind bet is made and 2 call and one raises, then more than one person is representing that they have pocket pairs, which means that there is at least a better than 50% chance someone is lying.

Of course, poker players don't lie, they bluff! They can bluff meekly or they can be an extreme bluffer and bluff often.

After the flop is where the real art of the game comes into play. Each bet then is a series of questions about who has what and who believes what they are being told. If you believe the person who bet first had a good playable hand before the flop, is it still a winning hand after the flop?

Since the experts tell you that most hands miss the flop, then the question is which of those liars with pocket pairs will believe someone hit their hand and now their hand is beaten by a higher pair or a better made hand? And if they weren't lying, can you get them to believe you actually did hit your hand or that you really had a real pocket pair pre-flop and now you have a set or better?

The strength of the truth or lie will come in the strength of the question. And the strength of the question may be masked weakly, by a strong hand in order to get more money into the pot. The question can be asked strongly, by betting more than the other players are willing to risk and scoop up the pot now.

Of the two most common types of post flop bets, which is the truth and which is the lie? Is the PROBE BET, usually less than half the pot, really saying, "I have some of the flop, maybe not the top pair, but second pair or the nut straight or a flush draw", the truth? Is the VALUE BET, usually half the pot or more saying, "I think I have the top pair or better", the truth?

That's what makes poker so great. You get to ask the players what they have and they will tell you. It doesn't make any difference if it's the stoic old player that never talks or the brash young player that not only talks but animates the antics of an answer to the world. They do this by folding or betting. They do this by not saying a word, or by saying loudly, many words. But after the silence or the noise, comes the answer in the form of a bet or non-bet.

It usually isn't until you reach the river that you learn who bluffed or who lied and who didn't.

I think I'll start telling people to "Go Fish", more often, then make my bet or non-bet. Which will start to mean, “I have a great hand so let’s go to the river - ALL-IN"!

I NEVER BLUFF