FEAR

What would you be IF you weren't afraid?
“In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!”

Thursday, January 2, 2020

3 ways not to get better in Poker [Review]

3 ways not to get better in Poker
  1. Only Playing Poker. Like any worthwhile endeavor, practicing improves YOU!
    More than even playing, practicing improves your game. Playing allows you to see where you need to improve.
"Practice makes PERMANENT. Repeat the same mistakes over and over, and you won't get any closer to Carnegie Hall." [Sarah Kay]
The more you practice, the longer you will last.
That's the goal in poker, to last longer.
Practicing makes us better at what we are practicing, unless you’re practicing wrong.
"Practice makes Perfect"? It doesn't! "Perfect Practice makes Perfect" [Lombardi].
Practicing and not improving on your errors, will guarantee poor performance.
  1. Reading too many poker books.
You need to do more than just read a poker book. Highlight those parts that are keys to good poker. Make notes about key parts in the book. If the book is worth reading, you must have learned something useful, point it out.
  1. Watching instructional poker videos or poker tournaments on TV or Youtube.
Trying to enact complicated instructional strategies on day one leaves you lacking in straightforward techniques that would be more profitable. Tools take practice to use them correctly.
Televised tournaments are more about luck, good and bad. They generally show bad beats or bad plays. The most important part is more about the commentary, which talks about odds and playing situations. Poker tournaments last several hours, even the ones with fewer players. Poker on television would be very boring if they showed the whole tournament.
I watch poker tournaments looking for why they play their cards and see what I would bet in that situation. Gus Hanson's book "Every Hand Played" gives a better picture of playing a complete tournament, but still it's not all the hands.

[Card Player Mag - Nov 2019; APT advancedpokertraining.com, advertorial]From <https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/24341-three-ways-to-not-get-better-at-poker>

I NEVER BLUFF

[caption id="attachment_11" align="alignnone" width="248"]Mr Lucky Poker Mr Lucky Poker[/caption]

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Bicycle Casino Mega Satellite to the WSOP Circuit Event 8

My 1st Mega Satellite tournament ever @ The Bicycle Casino.
They paid 11 seats out of the field of  91, with the eleventh one getting about $1200. Not sure how that works if you don't want to spend the extra $400 to buy-in for the WSOP Circuit Event, means you would be out of pocket for about $630, after netting around $1000, from the Satellite event. Not too shabby if you could just cash out instead, giving you an ROI of about 3.35 times the buy-in.

POST GAME SUMMARY:
Not a Deep Stack Tournament. 
Your 160 M is quickly reduced to an M of 40 after the 1st hour with a utility of only 26.7 or about 2.5 orbits to get a couple of playable hands.
You need to double up by the 7th level or the blinds and ante will eat you up because you need to bet about  7.5 to 10 big blinds to win a hand.
This tournament leans heavily toward the LUCK side, as evidenced by the tighter play, and as shown by my final hand. Luck beat me early on, when I figured to win and had the best hand, but didn't show up on my final hand.


Skill Factor: 35.13
Luck Factor: 64.87
You need to double up around Level 7 to keep your Competitive  Stack (CS) above 60 Big Blinds. You can get more aggressive if your Optimal Competitive Stack (OCS) can stay above 60 Big Blinds starting at Level 5, when the Ante kicks in.
The table was running at about 30 hands per  hour or 10 hands per blind change.
Table Type: more tight aggressive than loose or even loose aggressive
Player Types: mostly tight aggressive
I made it to Level 8, a little over 2 hours into the tournament.

Most memorable hand:
Had won a couple of small pots, most raises were in the 3 BB range, both preflop and postflop, still had about 10k in chips when LUCK reared it's ugly head.
At level 4, I had ATs @ DB, everyone folded to me, I raised to 3BB, SB folded, BB called
flop  67T, (2 diamonds) BB checked, I raised to 3BB and was called ,
turn was an A, giving me 2 pair to a possible flush draw, BB raised to 3BB, I went all-in and BB called (I had him covered)
River was a diamond, giving him the nut flush w/A9 of diamonds.

My final hand, @ level 8, in Kill Phil mode with A3 in the BB, everyone folded to me, went all-in with 1325, called by SB who had JQ, flop was xxJ and his pair won when nothing helped me on the turn or the river.
Still not that bad if I would have made it to the bigger event which looks to get about 800 players and $250,000 or more to 1st place.

It should have a Skill Factor of about 177 and a Luck Factor of only about 27, ROI of about 1,087 time your buy-in of $230, which is the only reason to play this satellite. Of course and ROI of about 150 times the $1675 isn't too shabby either.

I NEVER BLUFF


Thursday, February 23, 2017

Hollywood Park Casino Celebrity Sit N Go

HPC (Hollywood Park Casino) has a new Sit-N-Go Tournament, currently only on Tuesday @ 8pm (2107)
$3,000 Guarantee. $330 Entry Fee. It's a 10 player, single table event, with $300 of the entry fee going to the prize pool. The $330 entry fee will get you $10,000 in chips  with 20 minute levels starting at 50/100.

Tournament Value:   38.54,
Anything under 50 may not be worth playing and more likely designed to get you back to the cash game tables, but then again, it's on Tuesday.
Could be worth playing with an ROI of 4.94, but being that it's on a Tuesday it's more of a Predator/Prey Tournament.

Sit and Go Tournaments are not spread very much anymore in the local card rooms. The best one I played in was as Hawaiian Gardens Casino, a three table tournament on weekends. Sadly it went away. Commerce Casino and The Bike run them sometimes during their big event tournaments.
This one is on the fast side but not Turbo, with 20 minute blind changes or 3 times per hour and not deep stacked @ only 100 Big Blinds for an "M" of 100, with a Utility "M" of about 67 Big Blinds.

You reach the Minefield at about Level 4,  which now lowers your (M) to 29 Big Blinds, since you need a minimum of 60 Big Blinds at all times to be competitive, you have to play much more riskier hands.

If your average win/loss rate is 50% and with the ante kicking in, you have only about 30 hands left before you have to play a Kill Phil kind of game. The Minefield section is about 1.5 hours and should end about Level 9, where you will need at least $72.000 in chips to continue at the Bubble Phase and on to the In-the-Money Phase. This tournament only pays the top 2 out of 10.

The Minefield is not too deep at about 6 levels, which means that's where most of the action is going to be as players try to improve their stacks. At level 7, about 2.33 hours into the tournament, it should start getting exciting as short stacks are going ALL-IN and medium stacks get cautious.

You only have about 2 hours to Double Up your stack, which means changing gears could be problematic when you are getting short stacked.

Being a tournament more geared to Luck at 81% than Skill, at about 18%, Tight Passive players are likely to have to make bigger bets than usual, but this one could go on for about 3 hours or more. Haven't seen the results, I don't think Hollywood Park Casino publishes them.

It would be interesting to see if a deeper stacked tournament, with 30 min blinds, and paying 3 players would make the tournament more popular, especially on a weekend.
Maybe 3 tables with 30 players and the top 3 chip stacks at each table make the final 9 and pay the 3 finishers.

I NEVER BLUFF





















(M) # big blind bets you can make based on your chip stack size. An indicator of how aggressive you can be on each hand. (named after Paul Magriel.)
(UM) Utility of M, effectiveness of your chip stack size based on total blinds and ante for each round.

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Hollywood Park Casino Daily Tournaments

This one from Hollywood Park Casino is on a Saturday at 7pm. $3,000 Guarantee. $60 Entry Fee and one $60 rebuy/add-on. They need at least 81 players or entries, including rebuys, to meet the guarantee, as only $37 of the entry fee and/or rebuy/add-on goes the prize pool.
Their set-up sheet shows one on Sunday @ Noon for $150 entry and a $12,000 guarantee, with $30 going to fees and $30,000 in chips, no rebuy? We'll get to that one later.

Unlike many of the low limit Texas Hold'em cash games, this looks looks like it isn't on the fast side, with 20 minute blind changes, only due to the deep starting stack.

The $60 entry fee will get you $10,000 in chips and the rebuy/add-on will get you another $15,000 in chips, so it's pretty deep stacked at 250 Big Blinds (M), depending on if you added-on (rebuy) or didn't. If you didn't take the early re-buy, really an add-on if taken early, then you're very limited on your attack strategy. Some aggressive players like to hedge their ROI by trying not to add-on early. This puts your luck factor at about 90% and severely limits your playability. So if you are an action player you are most likely up against Tight Aggressive players who only play about 30% of their hands. The Minefield starts about a hour after the Tournament starts, so you have a little time to build your stack off the Tight Passive players. The tournament could run about 4 to 5 hours.

With an M of 250 to start, when you reach the Minefield at about Level 4, you'll be down to 83 Big Blinds, if your average win/loss rate is 50%, but with the ante kicking in, you have only about 37 hands left before you have to play a Kill Phil kind of game. The Minefield should end about Level 9, where you will need at least $42.000 in chips to continue to the Bubble phase.

The Minefield is fairly deep, which means that's where most of the action is going to be as players try to improve their stacks. At level 6 and 7, about 2 hours into the tournament, it should start getting exciting as short stacks are going All-In and medium stacks get cautious.

You have a little over 3 hours to Double Up your stack, which means you can change gears several times to maximise your play. At the Blind Off Level, level 9, you need about $264,000 in chips to make it past the bubble to where you're In-The-Money.

Being a tournament more geared to Luck, at about 53%, than Skill, at about 48%, Tight Passive players are still likely to get run over, but this one could go for 5 hours or more. Haven't seen the results, I don't think Hollywood Park Casino publishes them.


I NEVER BLUFF

Monday, November 14, 2016

Hollywood Park Casino

I finally got a chance to go to the new Hollywood Park Casino. It has been completely rebuilt and much more attractive with it's modern open design, just a few yards from the old casino and racetrack it was previously attached to. I miss the iconic neon Hollywood Park Casino sign though.
I've been told it's larger than the old casino, but it's hard to tell with the new modern layout.

The poker area is more open and much cleaner looking than before and was quite active in all the areas. They have several areas off the poker room, like one for the California Games and Asian Games and a High Roller area, as well as Black Jack. Any kind of poker game you want, and the new big thing, Big "O" (Omaha 5 card Hold'em) poker, which is an Omaha-8-or-better poker game.

The entry court splits the casino off with the poker areas on the left (west) and the Turf Club and Simulcast off-track wagering room off the right (east) where you can get to the multi-level parking garage. I prefer to pay for valet parking which is reasonable at $5 for regular or $10 for close by.

An elegant bar and lounge area off the poker room and the Century Bar and Grill, the Raise Lounge, are right at the entrance. They have a Peet's Coffee shop and the Deli, a "design your own sandwich shop". Didn't see a gift shop, though Peet's may end up selling some gifts.

I'm old fashioned guy and that's my liquor drink of choice, rarely will I order a cocktail of any kind. The classic Old Fashioned, with no fruit of any kind, muddled or floating. Irish whiskey, Bourbon, and an occasional Scotch, in that order, are what I look for. They are limited with only Bushmills and Jameson for my Irish taste, I usually end up with Bushmills, unless they have Red Breast, then I'll go for Bourbon. I've had all of the ones they offer here, but alas, no Jack Daniels Single Barrel. At least they have Macallan 12 Scotch, the only Scotch I enjoy, except for the occasional Laphroaig, but then again I'm a Gemini, go figure.

Stouts and Porters are my beer of choice, and I usually go for a beer before I'll have a whiskey. I didn't notice any there, and they don't appear beer to have anything on draft.

Still hoping they bring back Sit and Go Poker.

I NEVER BLUFF