Get your head in the game.....................Keep your head in the game!

You know your head isn't in the game, when you think of reasons to abandon the table when you keep losing to marginal hands. The hands are not coming your way and you can't justify playing the marginal hands most loose, as well as loose aggressive, players play just to get lucky on the flop. It's probably best to get up and walk around for a couple of orbits to clear the fog in your brain, or just leave.

Loose tables with loose aggressive players are very profitable, if you keep your head in the game. The low level games are usually loose and often loose aggressive. Loose aggressive tables are where you want to play. 

It's easy to lose focus when you aren't playing well or the hands aren't coming your way. I see a lot of players that change seats or even tables when the cards turn cold. I don't subscribe to the notion that if I change my seat, it will change my luck. You make your own luck, which is what those loose aggressive players are trying to do anyway by playing 80% of the hands and raising 50% or more with them, regardless of position. Some of them often use the straddle to build the pot. It's an action players move. I love those players, when my head is in the game. 

Keep your head in the game and raise the action players with your favorable position and range of hands and you have to know their range of hands.

What do Action Players play?

Loose Aggressive Tables average 4+ players willing to see the flop if the bets are less than 3x BB

LA players tend to bet 2x/3x BB w/Ax, Kx, Broadway connectors, IN or OUT of position.

They are not that concerned about the pot size, as most will raise to build the pot and eliminate tight players. These action players are are looking to get lucky and the only way to minimize their prospecting for luck is to attack them, especially those straddle players.

What do Tight Players play?

TA players will raise more often than Tight Passive players. Both have a similar range of hands, but neither one is a action player. The tight player is more likely to fold when the LA players raise the bet above their threshold of betting less than premium hands. 

IN position the TA players tend to call their bottom range and  raise with their top range of hands. OUT of position the TA players tend to call or raise with their top range of hands and are more dangerous than the action players which will release their hand after the flop, if they haven't hit something and/or don't have a good drawing possibility. Tight Passive and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to hold on when they hit the flop and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to raise when they hit top pair or make a set or better.

KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME.

I NEVER BLUFF

RANKING HANDS AND POINT SYSTEMS

Updated 2/11/2017

Let's agree that an Ace is the highest card in the deck and is worth the highest points.
There are probably as many point systems for poker as there are poker games and the various ways to play them. I think it's best to keep it simple, so I rank the Ace the highest, by about 2 points and the rest at about face value. My point system adds for pairs, connectors and suited cards, since an AA or AK should have a higher value than AT or A9 or A4.

An Ace therefore would normally be worth 12 points and a K,Q,J,T would all be worth 10.
Since Kings outrank Jacks and Tens, it should really have a higher rank than 10. and giving a higher rank also to Jacks, so we should probably give a one point advantage of Jacks over Tens, which makes a Jack worth 11, Queen worth 12 and King worth 13.
Now the ACE should have that 2 point advantage, so I'll give it 15 points.

It's hard to put a value on a pair since 22 will win heads up about 55% of the time and only 12% against a full table and beats AK. Given that a deuce has about a 2 point rank and only 4 points counting both cards, based on face value, and AK would have a value of twenty-eight (15 for the Ace and 13 for the King), we should give a factor to pairs, suited cards and connectors.
We'll start a Pair off at 20 points and add a point for card value. We will also add one point for being connected and 2 points for being suited and 3 points if it's connected and suited.

So the lowest pair (22) would equal 22 points and a pair of threes (33) would equal 23 points and a pair of nines (99) would equal 29 points and add one point higher for each broadway card; TT=30 (20+10), JJ=31 (20+11), and QQ=32 (20+12), KK=33 (20+13), and AA=35 (20+15)

22 vs AKs;
AKs = 31 points [(15+13) +1 for the connector, +2 for being suited] vs the 2 deuces @ 22 points.

If you loosly equate it to odds, then AKs would be favored 31/22 or about 1.4:1. (actually 1.409, but a tenth of a point is really no consideration in betting or looking at odds of any kind, not a factor at all, so round it up) and KK vs AKs; KK would be favored 33/31 or 1.06:1.

KK vs 22, KK favored 33/22 or 1.5:1

What's all this mean?
Only that you shouldn't bet the farm. At best, heads up you are usually about 49/51, more likely about 60/40 and at worst only a 3:1 dog, using normal odds, and normal hands for All-In bets, and the point system would only show a slight advantage, since it all changes by the river, and you can throw any point system out the window.

Favorite-to-underdog matchup Probability Odds, discounting suitability

Pair vs. 2 undercards (AA vs KQ is only slightly better than 88 vs 34)
83% to 17% or 4.9 : 1

Pair vs. lower pair (AA vs KK about the same as 88 vs 33)
82% to 18% or 4.5 : 1 

Pair vs. 1 overcard, 1 undercard (KK vs AQ not much better than 88 vs 97)
71% to 29% or 2.5 : 1

2 overcards vs. 2 undercards (AK vs QJ about the same as 98 vs 76)
63% to 37% or 1.7 : 1

Pair vs. 2 overcards (QQ vs AK and 88 vs 9T)
55% to 45% or 1.2 : 1

Max points are 35 for the AA and minimum is 6 for the 23, 5 at face value, plus 1 for being connected. In a normal counting system, many people will play any hand with 2 cards totaling 18 or higher, which would be an 8 and 10, or any pair. Aggressive players like Daniel Negreanu, will add some connectors and suited cards to their range. Some say any cards that can be connected on the flop, like one or 2 gaps, or even 3 gaps, are connectors. and look for luck to help them with a miracle flop.

This point system adds up to 3 points which lets you reasonably increase your range of cards by giving an 89 a 18 point count because it's connected, or 19 points if suited, and 20 points if it's both.

In a normal count a KK would count the same as a TT, where this system gives a better value for KK at 33 points and significantly better than the 89 which is only 3 points lower the the normal KK of 20 points.

Now a hand like JJ at 31 points against the 18 to 20 points players normally use would be 31/18 or 1.72:1.

You can use this to help decide how much to bet or raise against a normal hand if you end up heads up and in position against the range of hands people play, depending on their position. It makes your hand look stronger, because it is.

Can you use it as a betting tool on the flop?
Look at it compared to the flop rating system: A+, A, B+, etc.
How about betting about 1.72 more than the normal bet? If the normal bet is 3 times the big blind, you could make it a little more than 4.5 times the big blind (3+1.72) if you have a 31 point hand vs a normal 20 point hand. Pro's seem to like to make normal bets look different, like a $325 bet when $300 is 3 times the big blind or $16,200 when a $15,000 bet is the normal bet.

I NEVER BLUFF

I Hate Bluffing

Bluffing ----- do you really need to bluff?
I hate bluffing and have always hated bluffing. I am currently reading Poker Wizards by Warwick Dunnett. The section with Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, one of my favorite players to watch, talks about the need to bluff.

Ferguson writes, "If I never bluff, my opponents are going to figure that out and only call me when they have a hand that they think can beat me. Therefore, I am really losing money with my good hands because I only get called when I am beaten. If I bluff too often, I will get called too often, and end up losing more money with my bluffs than I make from my good hands".

OK......So we'll look into Bluffing..........Maybe?



Reasons to Bluff are the same as the reasons to raise.
Reduce the number of players in the hand and/or Steal the Blinds. Generally good players will rarely bluff, unless the table is tight.

Player classifications prior to the first hand being dealt.
Rate each player as a 1 (Passive) or 2 (Aggressive).
After a few hands see if the classification still holds and then sub-classify them, which will give you an aggression factor.

Aggression Factors
11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)
12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),
21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)
22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).
3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

See if the maniac stays true to form or was really an aggressive type that got some great hands early in the game. There are many Mental Midgets in fast card room tournaments and on-line play, they have no respect for the game.

Clothing, mannerisms, boisterous talking, or no social interaction, can give a clue as to the type of player. How they stack their chips, play with their chips, splashing, forcefulness in betting movements, or mucking their cards can also give a hint as the the type of player.

Bluff Poker
Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: “The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%”, (until the final table).

The probability of bluffing may be based on position, relative to the number of players at the table and the number of players in the pot. The "Button" and "Cutoff" players could have a 90% probability of bluffing, if there are no other players in the hand and decreasing 10% for each player before them in an unraised pot and another 10% if the pot has been raised. If it's been re-raised, the chance that someone is bluffing could be down to less than 10%.

Passive/Passive (11) players are not likely to bluff at any time. If they do bluff pre-flop, they are likely to muck the hand to any bet.
Maniacs or Mental Midgets (3) could bluff at any time. They are not likely to make it to the second round unless they get lucky. They will usually make a very large bet or go All-in from Early Positions and any position if no one else is in the hand before them.

Pre-flop bluffing probability
Early Positions
Aggression factor............12..21..22

.........................(UG) 10% 20% 30%
.........................(4th) 20% 30% 40%
.........................(5th) 30% 40% 50%

Middle Positions

Aggression factor..........12..21..22
......................(6th) 40% .50% 60%
......................(7th) 50% 60% 70%

Late Positions
Aggression factor...........12..21..22
..........(8th/Raising)....60% 70% 80%
.........(Button/Cutoff).. 70% 80% 90%
........(Blinds)............ 70% 80% 90%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Post-flop bluffing probability
The more players in the hand, the less likely anyone is bluffing, unless its the chip leader or a short stack or of course the Mental Midget.

Aggression factor....... 12.. 21.. 22
Early Positions.......... 10% 20% 30%
Middle Positions........ 20% 30% 40%
Late Positions........... 30% 40% 50%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Pre-flop bluffing:
Early Positions (UG) Under the Gun, 4th and 5th positions.
The UG & early position raising more than the standard 3 times the big blind is more likely to be a bluff. They would most likely slow play or make a normal raise with Top 10 hands. They are likely to just call or raise more than 3 times the big blind with Type 3 or 4 hands. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked. Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play the top 10 hands, but any other hand is open season for a large bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs and middle connectors or any suited Ace with a middle to low card.

Middle Positions (6th/7th)
Middle Position payers could be playing the top 15 hands normally but bluff lesser hands if no one is in the hand before them. Middle Position players are more likely to be squeezed between good hands if they are not first to bet. They are more likely to get trapped in a difficult situation, when you are trying to call a bet by a player in Early Position, but are getting raised or have a very real threat of being raised by another opponent in Late Position. This is dangerous because you may be wanting to slow down the action when you are holding a marginal hand or are wary of your opponent acting behind you in Late Position, but the Early Position player is either too aggressive or has a good hand himself and is forcing you to commit more chips to the hand. Middle Position may be the hardest place to try a bluff.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Button/Cutoff)
Late Position players are only limited by how many players got in the hand before them and if anyone raised. With no raises and everyone else mucking, they can easily bluff with just about anything, especially if the blinds are weak players. If there are a few callers they can raise with almost any of the top 20 hands. If the pot was raised with a standard raise, they are likely to bluff only if there are weak callers and the raiser is a loose aggressive player or a Mental Midget.
Blinds
It's amazing to me how irate aggressive players become if someone raised their blinds. The more irate they are, the more vocal they are, the more likely they are bluffing or pretending, because they have a strong hand, especially if there is only one or two players left in the hand.

Post-Flop bluffing
Scare cards are likely to induce bluffing if either no one has bet or the Loose Aggressive or Mental Midget thinks no one has caught anything and wants to represent a nut hand. The more players in the hand, the less likely someone who bluffs is going to succeed.

Early Positions (1st, 2nd and 3rd positions)
Early Position raising more than 2 times the pot is more likely to be a bluff. They would still more likely slow play or make a normal raise with a set or higher. They are likely to just call or raise half the pot with top pair or a nut draw. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked.
Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play a set or higher, but any other hand is open season for a larger bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs but representing top pair or nut draws with an Ace or King on the board.

Middle Positions (4th, 5th, 6th & 7th positions)
Middle Position payers are still vulnerable to being squeezed out but a bluff here could cause good drawing hands to fold. This may also be the best place for those Mental Midgets to attack if players before them are checking.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Cutoff/Button)
Most likely to make a play if there are few still in the hand and everyone checked to them. May be a good place to bluff if someone made a small bet and it looks like the rest will fold.
The goal is to put the pressure on, by getting heads up with a good hand against a weak player, the winning hand against a good but second best hand or challenge the Mental Midgets.

Final Table
This is where bluffing becomes a fine art.
Now you are in-the-money and it's all about finishing as high as you can. The chance that someone is bluffing goes anywhere from 30% to 60%, increasing by another 10% according to the type of player you are against and your stack size relative to the average stack size. It's still going to be determined by the amount of the bet or raise in relation to the flop. If the bet or raise is un-reasonable, because the flop doesn't look like it helped anyone or the board is scary, then either someone is bluffing or they have a hand that can be beat at the river. It's rare that a bluffer will fire two bluffing bets (bullets), like a raise and re-raise or raising the flop and turn, with absolutely nothing. But, if it's going to happen, it will happen at the final table, at least once.




"I Never Bluff"