Poker Minefield Attacks

The minefield in poker usually starts when the ante begins. It's when aggressive players start to really attempt to steal the blinds and generally lasts until the part of a tournament where non-aggressive players would be blinded out of a tournament or the bubble period begins.

Minefield attacks are used in poker tournaments and are based on stack sizes, used primarily for stealing pots with moderately strong starting hands or B+ to A- flop textures. [see Flop Textures]

Big stacks attack Short Stacks, Medium Stacks attack Big Stacks and Short Stacks attack Medium Stacks.

Playing a medium stack in a tournament minefield is more dangerous than playing a short stack. A medium stack will be 50 to 60 big blinds. With tournaments now going to games with a Big Blind ante, stacks take on a different strategy. 60 big blinds have a utility of about 40 hands depending on the blind change interval.

Many tournaments have 20 minutes between blind changes. At 2.5 big blinds per orbit, you're looking at your stack going down to 15 big blinds when the deal gets back to you, as the blinds, and ante have tripled . Most live games have about 30 hands per hour, that's only 10 hands per blind change. Short stacks, 10 Big Blinds or less, will be going All-in for the rest of the tournament.

If you have a medium stack, you must increase your stack by 20 % every orbit, or double up each hour. In order to be competitive, you need to play about 20% of the hands you are dealt, that's 6 hands per hour. Each hand will cost about 7 to 10 big blinds to get to the river.

Picking playable hands is crucial in the Minefield, but you can't just play premium hands to survive. You have to learn how to use the Luck Factor as a skill. Learn how to play marginal hands in optimal situations.

Advanced Poker Tournament Strategy 2, by Arnold Snyder.

[caption id="attachment_11" align="alignnone" width="248"] Mr Lucky Poker[/caption]

3 ways not to get better in Poker [Review]

3 ways not to get better in Poker

1. Only Playing Poker. Like any worthwhile endeavor, practicing improves YOU!
   More than even playing, practicing improves your game. Playing allows you to see where you need to improve.

"Practice makes PERMANENT. Repeat the same mistakes over and over, and you won't get any closer to Carnegie Hall." [Sarah Kay]

The more you practice, the longer you will last.
That's the goal in poker, to last longer.
Practicing makes us better at what we are practicing, unless you’re practicing wrong.

"Practice makes Perfect"? It doesn't! "Perfect Practice makes Perfect" [Lombardi].
Practicing and not improving on your errors, will guarantee poor performance.

2. Reading too many poker books.

You need to do more than just read a poker book. Highlight those parts that are keys to good poker. Make notes about key parts in the book. If the book is worth reading, you must have learned something useful, point it out.

3. Watching instructional poker videos or poker tournaments on TV or Youtube.

Trying to enact complicated instructional strategies on day one leaves you lacking in straightforward techniques that would be more profitable. Tools take practice to use them correctly.

Televised tournaments are more about luck, good and bad. They generally show bad beats or bad plays. The most important part is more about the commentary, which talks about odds and playing situations. Poker tournaments last several hours, even the ones with fewer players. Poker on television would be very boring if they showed the whole tournament.

I watch poker tournaments looking for why they play their cards and see what I would bet in that situation. Gus Hanson's book "Every Hand Played" gives a better picture of playing a complete tournament, but still it's not all the hands.

[Card Player Mag - Nov 2019; APT advancedpokertraining.com, advertorial]From <https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/24341-three-ways-to-not-get-better-at-poker>

I NEVER BLUFF

[caption id="attachment_11" align="alignnone" width="248"] Mr Lucky Poker[/caption]

Hollywood Park Casino Celebrity Sit N Go

HPC (Hollywood Park Casino) has a new Sit-N-Go Tournament, currently only on Tuesday @ 8pm (2107)
$3,000 Guarantee. $330 Entry Fee. It's a 10 player, single table event, with $300 of the entry fee going to the prize pool. The $330 entry fee will get you $10,000 in chips  with 20 minute levels starting at 50/100.

Tournament Value:   38.54,
Anything under 50 may not be worth playing and more likely designed to get you back to the cash game tables, but then again, it's on Tuesday.
Could be worth playing with an ROI of 4.94, but being that it's on a Tuesday it's more of a Predator/Prey Tournament.

http://www.mrluckypoker.net/2017/02/hollywood-park-casino-celebrity-sit-n-go.html

Sit and Go Tournaments are not spread very much anymore in the local card rooms. The best one I played in was as Hawaiian Gardens Casino, a three table tournament on weekends. Sadly it went away. Commerce Casino and The Bike run them sometimes during their big event tournaments.
This one is on the fast side but not Turbo, with 20 minute blind changes or 3 times per hour and not deep stacked @ only 100 Big Blinds for an "M" of 100, with a Utility "M" of about 67 Big Blinds.

You reach the Minefield at about Level 4,  which now lowers your (M) to 29 Big Blinds, since you need a minimum of 60 Big Blinds at all times to be competitive, you have to play much more riskier hands.

If your average win/loss rate is 50% and with the ante kicking in, you have only about 30 hands left before you have to play a Kill Phil kind of game. The Minefield section is about 1.5 hours and should end about Level 9, where you will need at least $72.000 in chips to continue at the Bubble Phase and on to the In-the-Money Phase. This tournament only pays the top 2 out of 10.

The Minefield is not too deep at about 6 levels, which means that's where most of the action is going to be as players try to improve their stacks. At level 7, about 2.33 hours into the tournament, it should start getting exciting as short stacks are going ALL-IN and medium stacks get cautious.

You only have about 2 hours to Double Up your stack, which means changing gears could be problematic when you are getting short stacked.

Being a tournament more geared to Luck at 81% than Skill, at about 18%, Tight Passive players are likely to have to make bigger bets than usual, but this one could go on for about 3 hours or more. Haven't seen the results, I don't think Hollywood Park Casino publishes them.

It would be interesting to see if a deeper stacked tournament, with 30 min blinds, and paying 3 players would make the tournament more popular, especially on a weekend.
Maybe 3 tables with 30 players and the top 3 chip stacks at each table make the final 9 and pay the 3 finishers.

I NEVER BLUFF

(M) # big blind bets you can make based on your chip stack size. An indicator of how aggressive you can be on each hand. (named after Paul Magriel.)

(UM) Utility of M, effectiveness of your chip stack size based on total blinds and ante for each round.

Get your head in the game.....................Keep your head in the game!

You know your head isn't in the game, when you think of reasons to abandon the table when you keep losing to marginal hands. The hands are not coming your way and you can't justify playing the marginal hands most loose, as well as loose aggressive, players play just to get lucky on the flop. It's probably best to get up and walk around for a couple of orbits to clear the fog in your brain, or just leave.

Loose tables with loose aggressive players are very profitable, if you keep your head in the game. The low level games are usually loose and often loose aggressive. Loose aggressive tables are where you want to play. 

It's easy to lose focus when you aren't playing well or the hands aren't coming your way. I see a lot of players that change seats or even tables when the cards turn cold. I don't subscribe to the notion that if I change my seat, it will change my luck. You make your own luck, which is what those loose aggressive players are trying to do anyway by playing 80% of the hands and raising 50% or more with them, regardless of position. Some of them often use the straddle to build the pot. It's an action players move. I love those players, when my head is in the game. 

Keep your head in the game and raise the action players with your favorable position and range of hands and you have to know their range of hands.

What do Action Players play?

Loose Aggressive Tables average 4+ players willing to see the flop if the bets are less than 3x BB

LA players tend to bet 2x/3x BB w/Ax, Kx, Broadway connectors, IN or OUT of position.

They are not that concerned about the pot size, as most will raise to build the pot and eliminate tight players. These action players are are looking to get lucky and the only way to minimize their prospecting for luck is to attack them, especially those straddle players.

What do Tight Players play?

TA players will raise more often than Tight Passive players. Both have a similar range of hands, but neither one is a action player. The tight player is more likely to fold when the LA players raise the bet above their threshold of betting less than premium hands. 

IN position the TA players tend to call their bottom range and  raise with their top range of hands. OUT of position the TA players tend to call or raise with their top range of hands and are more dangerous than the action players which will release their hand after the flop, if they haven't hit something and/or don't have a good drawing possibility. Tight Passive and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to hold on when they hit the flop and Tight Aggressive players are more likely to raise when they hit top pair or make a set or better.

KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME.

I NEVER BLUFF

Hollywood Park Casino 1st Sunday 25k tournament.

Updated: 2/5/2017

 Still haven't found the time to play in one, but it looks like a good Tournament.

Most tournaments are geared to be top heavy in payouts which makes them less profitable if you only get "In-The-Money".

Players have been clamoring for a more "fair" payout structure. So fast games with a low "M" tend to be more of a gambler's tournament even if you get to the final table.

I've won a couple of tournaments in the past here but Hollywood Park Casino has leaned more to gamblers in the past. I still search for the elusive Sit and Go tournaments, which Hollywood Park Casino used to have, even though they were more on the fast side.

I didn't play in this one but it looks like they are improving on their tournament structure in some of them, we'll see as they start moving to the new casino and get more players from the new facilities surrounding them.

So what kind of tournament do we have?
Allen 'Chainsaw' Kessler "Approved"?
'Action' Dan Harrington Approved?
Arnold Snyder Approved?

Here is my assessment of the Tournament Value  for Hollywood Park Casino's  First Sundayof each month, Feb 2017. $25,000 Guarantee. 

$230 Entry Fee win no rebuy/add-on. They need at least 129 players or entries, including re-entries, to meet the guarantee, as only $194 of the entry fee goes the prize pool.

Hopefully there will be at least 144 players for Optimum Value.
Their regular Sunday Tournament is also @ Noon for $150 entry and a $12,000 guarantee, with $30 going to fees and $30,000 in chips, no rebuy? We'll get to that one later.

Unlike many of the low limit Texas Hold'em cash games, this looks looks like it isn't on the fast side, with 30 minute blind changes, but only  for the first 3 blind changes and fairly deep starting stack of 300 Big Blinds with a Utility "M" of about 200 Big Blinds, until it gets 30% faster at level 5.

The $230 entry fee will get you $30,000 in chips and you can re-enter up to the 9th Level, or about 3 hours and 30 minutes into the tournament.  Don't wait until then to get into the tournament because you'll be down to less then 40 Big Blinds by then if you haven't increased your stack.

You reach the Minefield at about Level 4,  which is still not too bad at 150 Big Blinds, since you need a minimum of 60 Big Blinds at all times, to be competative. If your average win/loss rate is 50% and with the ante kicking in, you have only about 70 hands left before you have to play a Kill Phil kind of game. The Minefield has a long fuse, about 4.17 hours and should end about Level 15.5, where you will need at least $360.000 in chips to continue at the Bubble Phase and on to the In-the-Money Phase.

The Minefield is fairly deep, which means that's where most of the action is going to be as players try to improve their stacks. At level 11 and 12, about 4 hours into the tournament, it should start getting exciting as short stacks are going All-In and medium stacks get cautious.

You have a almost 4 hours to Double Up your stack, which means you can change gears several times to maximise your play.

Being a tournament more geared to Luck, at about 16%, than Skill, at over 90%, Tight Passive players are likely to get run over, and this one could go for close to 8 hours or more. Haven't seen the results, I don't think Hollywood Park Casino publishes them.

I NEVER BLUFF

Updated: 2/5/2017

The Only Good Hand Was the Last Hand - FOLD EQUITY

The Only Good Hand Was the Last Hand - FOLD EQUITY

 

        http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/?p=1043

"It is the equity a player can expect to gain due to the opponent folding to his or her bets."

Folding?
It depends as much on the type of table you are at as it does the type of player you are playing, maybe more.

Most comments about any type of play center around a specific player and tends to be focused on becoming heads up after the flop, if not during the flop.

That only happens about 30%-40% of the time live and almost nonexistent on-line. Aggressiveness is the only game in town when paying on-line, but in a live cash game, aggression is sometimes fleeting, most times it's random to intermittent.

If you're at an aggressive table, there may be no real fold equity, because you are usually up against 2 to 3 villains. If you don't really know how much they have in their pocket, which you don't, you can't really tell how aggressive they are going to be. If you have watched the table, which you should have before sitting down, you can tell who is the Loose Aggressive and who is the Selective Aggressive player. Their fold equity is quite a bit different than the passive player that sits in-between them.

Essentially, fold equity is the extra amount of equity you gain when you factor in how likely your opponent is to fold. Working out the correct amount of fold equity relies heavily on your ability to read an opponent. In other words, you need to be fairly certain of your chances to get an opponent to fold. But how about 2 villains or even 3?

The formulas you read about in the most popular strategy sites are only good for a head-to-head battle.
With multiple opponents, you have to rely on multiple reads and your initial threat assessment for each villain.

A final word of warning…https://www.partypoker.com/how-to-play/school/advanced/fold-equity.html

When playing against really loose aggressive players, your fold equity will likely be close to zero. This is also the case against players with really short stacks (very few playing chips) at a cash/ring game as well as in tournaments. Short-stacked players are less likely to fold, as they need to take more risks.

I NEVER BLUFF

Loose Table vs Tight Table Strategy

Updated 2/11/2017

Loose / passive table strategy.

There will usually be a gap between the hands that opponents are willing to limp and those that they will call a raise with.

passive opponents are more likely to call raises than re-raise you – so the first point is to tread carefully when you are called. possible to limp with more hands that have high implied odds value such as small pairs and suited connectors. These types of hands play well in multi-way pots.

After you flop a monster hand be careful not to blow your passive opponents out of the pot with big raises. Unless the board is particularly draw-heavy you should instead pick a bet size (see bet sizing) that is likely to be called – building the pot gradually so as to be paid the maximum.

The main problem with playing at passive tables is that it is slightly harder to build big pots.

Playing premium pairs at a passive table should usually involve raising to thin the field. Too small a raise can easily induce several of your loose opponents to enter the pot behind you with speculative holdings.

The ideal strategy to win at a loose / passive table is to become tight and aggressive – yet limp in with those hands with high implied-odds value as the situation warrants.

Loose / Aggressive table strategy. 

The only time you will be able to play small pairs or suited connector type hands is when you in position. Most hands should be folded in early position, because is too much danger of a raise and a re-raise behind you.

Bet your premium hands big. You should be looking to get a large amount of money into the pot before the flop, preferably against a single opponent. With a Loose Aggressive table, 4 or more players looking for the flop, you need to play small ball. If your Loose Aggressive player has possition on you, expect a raise or re-raise, so start with a small ball bet. The higher chance of a re-raise (or even a 4th raise all-in) makes playing these hands positively a profitable move.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/general/loose-table/

Learn to be aggressive

"I kept getting bet out of the pot!"

I'd have what I thought was a very strong hand, not the absolute nuts, but a good hand, maybe the best hand. I'd make my bet accordingly, say $35 to $50 in a $75 pot, and then someone would raise me to $150 or $200 and I'd fold.

I didn't really know it, but I was what you'd call "scared money". I had trouble risking $150-$200 on a hand that was not the absolute nuts.

Scared money does not win poker chips. I decided right then and there, that if I'm going to play Cash Poker, I absolutely have to be prepared to risk the bet on a single hand or single card. Over time this small change in attitude, my mindset, made all the difference. I soon found my opponents folding to my re-raises. I was winning bigger pots, my plays earned more respect,

Cash Poker takes a different mindset than Tournament Poker, and I finally figured out what it was for me. If I bust my daily Poker bankroll, I'll just go earn some more.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/6008016

I NEVER BLUFF

The Three Strategic Principles of Poker

Updated 2/11/2017

Playing poker well involves more than knowing which cards beat what. It involves more than memorizing the percentages and odds. It involves more than being able to detect tells from changes in someone’s posture, or in the way they glanced at their chips. Understanding the overriding principles of poker is far more important and valuable than being “a good bluffer”. The basic principles of poker override all correct strategies and playing styles.

Here are the principles:

Patience

Patience is the key to successful poker. Whether you are playing in a cash game, or a tournament, you will need this attribute to be a consistent winner. Most hands that you are dealt in poker are not worth playing, and if you start playing trash hands, then your results will usually be trash too.

Occasionally you will be dealt unplayable cards hand after hand. It will seem that you are never going to get any worthwhile cards again, and you will be tempted to play a rubbish hand just because you haven’t played any for a while. Don’t let it get to you. All good players go through stretches where they have bad cards and have to fold, over and over again. Patience is one of the main points that separate the good players from the bad. Patience is more important in Sit and Go tournaments and most important in Cash or Ring games.

Bide your time, and only play hands when your cards and the situation are both right.

Aggression

Once you get the cards that you were waiting for, aggression becomes paramount. It is no good to get dealt AA, if all that happens is that you checked and called on each round of betting, only to get beat on the river when they catch a card that fits their draw.

If you have a hand that is likely to be the best, BET!
If someone bets first, and you still think that your hand is better than their hand, RAISE. Get as much money into the pot as you can. Get it all in if your hand is strong enough and your opponent is inclined to play along with you.

When betting with a strong hand you either want to get more money into the pot when someone calls you with a worse hand, or you want to win the pot immediately (which stops a worse hand from getting lucky and hitting a card that would beat you).  Sometimes your opponent will call with a worse hand, and then beat you with a lucky card anyway. Don't let that bother you. As long as you get your money in as a favorite, you've played correctly.

Using aggression to get maximum value from good hands, is one of the most important principles of poker.

Deception

The deception principle is this: all actions you take must contain at least an element of deception.

It is very important in poker that you don’t allow your opponents to learn exactly how you play. If you are playing Texas Hold'em and raise to $20 when you have Aces, $18 when you have Kings, $16 when you have Queens, $14 when you have Jacks etc, it won't take long for your opponents to work out what you are doing.

But if you raise with Aces 85% of the time, and 15% of the time just call or limp, then your opponents can't ever be completely certain what you have. Use your watch, your second hand specifically, to make random plays.

Randomness is the key to deception.

Look at your watch when you have to make that decision, if the second hand is on between the 9 and the 12, go ahead and limp. It's a random bet and it will keep them from pushing you too often. Using 10 to 12, if out of position, is about 17% (counting the 12) and using 9 to 12, in position, is about 23% (not counting the 12). Randomness will keep them guessing and improve your tight image.

Raising the same amount whenever you decide to raise also makes it harder for your opponents to work out what you have. Let’s say you decide to raise to 2 big blinds about 85% of the times that you are dealt AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ, and just call the other 15% of the time. Now it becomes very hard for your opponents to work out what you have. Because you are usually raising with good hands (as you should) but occasionally just calling with exactly the same hands, you make yourself harder to read.

Let’s take the concept a step further. Let’s say you decide on a strategy that involves calling with pocket 2’s through to pocket 10s, and you decide 80% of the time is a good percentage to call. The remaining 20% of the time you raise.

Now even if your opponents knew your strategy exactly, they still wouldn’t know if your raise means that you have AA or just 22. They can't tell what you have when you just call either, because you might have 44, or you might have AK.

You have made your moves much more difficult for your opponents to read, and anything that makes your opponents’ job harder, is to your advantage.

If you can master these three principles of poker, then you should be the one walking away with the money.

I NEVER BLUFF

I Hate Bluffing

Bluffing ----- do you really need to bluff?
I hate bluffing and have always hated bluffing. I am currently reading Poker Wizards by Warwick Dunnett. The section with Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, one of my favorite players to watch, talks about the need to bluff.

Ferguson writes, "If I never bluff, my opponents are going to figure that out and only call me when they have a hand that they think can beat me. Therefore, I am really losing money with my good hands because I only get called when I am beaten. If I bluff too often, I will get called too often, and end up losing more money with my bluffs than I make from my good hands".

OK......So we'll look into Bluffing..........Maybe?



Reasons to Bluff are the same as the reasons to raise.
Reduce the number of players in the hand and/or Steal the Blinds. Generally good players will rarely bluff, unless the table is tight.

Player classifications prior to the first hand being dealt.
Rate each player as a 1 (Passive) or 2 (Aggressive).
After a few hands see if the classification still holds and then sub-classify them, which will give you an aggression factor.

Aggression Factors
11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)
12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),
21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)
22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).
3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

See if the maniac stays true to form or was really an aggressive type that got some great hands early in the game. There are many Mental Midgets in fast card room tournaments and on-line play, they have no respect for the game.

Clothing, mannerisms, boisterous talking, or no social interaction, can give a clue as to the type of player. How they stack their chips, play with their chips, splashing, forcefulness in betting movements, or mucking their cards can also give a hint as the the type of player.

Bluff Poker
Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: “The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%”, (until the final table).

The probability of bluffing may be based on position, relative to the number of players at the table and the number of players in the pot. The "Button" and "Cutoff" players could have a 90% probability of bluffing, if there are no other players in the hand and decreasing 10% for each player before them in an unraised pot and another 10% if the pot has been raised. If it's been re-raised, the chance that someone is bluffing could be down to less than 10%.

Passive/Passive (11) players are not likely to bluff at any time. If they do bluff pre-flop, they are likely to muck the hand to any bet.
Maniacs or Mental Midgets (3) could bluff at any time. They are not likely to make it to the second round unless they get lucky. They will usually make a very large bet or go All-in from Early Positions and any position if no one else is in the hand before them.

Pre-flop bluffing probability
Early Positions
Aggression factor............12..21..22

.........................(UG) 10% 20% 30%
.........................(4th) 20% 30% 40%
.........................(5th) 30% 40% 50%

Middle Positions

Aggression factor..........12..21..22
......................(6th) 40% .50% 60%
......................(7th) 50% 60% 70%

Late Positions
Aggression factor...........12..21..22
..........(8th/Raising)....60% 70% 80%
.........(Button/Cutoff).. 70% 80% 90%
........(Blinds)............ 70% 80% 90%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Post-flop bluffing probability
The more players in the hand, the less likely anyone is bluffing, unless its the chip leader or a short stack or of course the Mental Midget.

Aggression factor....... 12.. 21.. 22
Early Positions.......... 10% 20% 30%
Middle Positions........ 20% 30% 40%
Late Positions........... 30% 40% 50%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Pre-flop bluffing:
Early Positions (UG) Under the Gun, 4th and 5th positions.
The UG &amp; early position raising more than the standard 3 times the big blind is more likely to be a bluff. They would most likely slow play or make a normal raise with Top 10 hands. They are likely to just call or raise more than 3 times the big blind with Type 3 or 4 hands. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked. Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play the top 10 hands, but any other hand is open season for a large bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs and middle connectors or any suited Ace with a middle to low card.

Middle Positions (6th/7th)
Middle Position payers could be playing the top 15 hands normally but bluff lesser hands if no one is in the hand before them. Middle Position players are more likely to be squeezed between good hands if they are not first to bet. They are more likely to get trapped in a difficult situation, when you are trying to call a bet by a player in Early Position, but are getting raised or have a very real threat of being raised by another opponent in Late Position. This is dangerous because you may be wanting to slow down the action when you are holding a marginal hand or are wary of your opponent acting behind you in Late Position, but the Early Position player is either too aggressive or has a good hand himself and is forcing you to commit more chips to the hand. Middle Position may be the hardest place to try a bluff.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Button/Cutoff)
Late Position players are only limited by how many players got in the hand before them and if anyone raised. With no raises and everyone else mucking, they can easily bluff with just about anything, especially if the blinds are weak players. If there are a few callers they can raise with almost any of the top 20 hands. If the pot was raised with a standard raise, they are likely to bluff only if there are weak callers and the raiser is a loose aggressive player or a Mental Midget.
Blinds
It's amazing to me how irate aggressive players become if someone raised their blinds. The more irate they are, the more vocal they are, the more likely they are bluffing or pretending, because they have a strong hand, especially if there is only one or two players left in the hand.

Post-Flop bluffing
Scare cards are likely to induce bluffing if either no one has bet or the Loose Aggressive or Mental Midget thinks no one has caught anything and wants to represent a nut hand. The more players in the hand, the less likely someone who bluffs is going to succeed.

Early Positions (1st, 2nd and 3rd positions)
Early Position raising more than 2 times the pot is more likely to be a bluff. They would still more likely slow play or make a normal raise with a set or higher. They are likely to just call or raise half the pot with top pair or a nut draw. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked.
Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play a set or higher, but any other hand is open season for a larger bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs but representing top pair or nut draws with an Ace or King on the board.

Middle Positions (4th, 5th, 6th &amp; 7th positions)
Middle Position payers are still vulnerable to being squeezed out but a bluff here could cause good drawing hands to fold. This may also be the best place for those Mental Midgets to attack if players before them are checking.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Cutoff/Button)
Most likely to make a play if there are few still in the hand and everyone checked to them. May be a good place to bluff if someone made a small bet and it looks like the rest will fold.
The goal is to put the pressure on, by getting heads up with a good hand against a weak player, the winning hand against a good but second best hand or challenge the Mental Midgets.

Final Table
This is where bluffing becomes a fine art.
Now you are in-the-money and it's all about finishing as high as you can. The chance that someone is bluffing goes anywhere from 30% to 60%, increasing by another 10% according to the type of player you are against and your stack size relative to the average stack size. It's still going to be determined by the amount of the bet or raise in relation to the flop. If the bet or raise is un-reasonable, because the flop doesn't look like it helped anyone or the board is scary, then either someone is bluffing or they have a hand that can be beat at the river. It's rare that a bluffer will fire two bluffing bets (bullets), like a raise and re-raise or raising the flop and turn, with absolutely nothing. But, if it's going to happen, it will happen at the final table, at least once.




"I Never Bluff"