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Showing posts with label roulette. Show all posts
Showing posts with label roulette. Show all posts

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Patience vs Speed & Utility

Updated 2/11/2017
mrluckypoker Mr Lucky Poker

https://sites.google.com/site/ljmangold/home/poker-strategy/patience-vs-speed-and-utility
From Arnold Snyder's Tournament Formula Poker 2
A must read for any tournament player, it's all about Deep Stack Poker tournaments.

The blind structure in relation to the number of chips each player starts with is the primary consideration on deciding if you should even enter a tournament, yet alone on what your strategy should be. The lower the patience factor, the more aggressive you have to be. The lower the patience factor, the more luck prevails over skill


The Patience or Speed Factor (PF) is the first step in determining how, or even if, you should play any tournament.
First you need the tournament structure sheet that shows how many chips you start with, what the starting blinds are and how often they are raised.
Starting Chips = $1000       Full Table (9 players)
Level    Blinds+Anties    Total    Time til blinds raise    Cumulative    M (# Big Blinds)
   1          25/25              50            20 Minutes            50             (40) (1000/25)
   2          25/50              75            20 Minutes           125            
   3          50/100          150            20 Minutes           275 
                                     (end of 1st hour)
   4         100/200          300            20 Minutes           575  
   5         100/200+25     425            20 Minutes          1000  
The amount of time it takes to "Blind Off" all your chips, without ever actually making a bet, is the Patience Factor, also the beginning the Minefield. In the above example you will be out of chips after 1 hour and 40 minutes, or 1.67 hours. Square that and you have the (PFPatience Factor, in this case, 2.76 (Level 1). Which means you will most likely be all-in on the first hand you play, if you have to go to the river, as this would be a FAST Tournament. Anything less the Level 4, is a short stack tournament, no need to even look at the Utility Factor (UF).
(PF) Patience Factor Skill Level
1.49 or less0
1.50 to 2.991
3.00 to 4.492
4.50 to 5.993
6.00 to 7.494
7.50 to 9.995
10.00 and up

The Minefield portion of the tournament is where you will see many players, mostly short stacked, making a last ditch effort to remain in the tournament or chip leaders trying to pick-off the dead money. This is also where players try to get past the bubble. Lots of All-in betting.

 The Utility Factor (UF) is the 2nd step in determining how, or even if, you should play any tournament. Think again that your chips are ammunition, not just chips. The more chips you have, the better you can utilize them. The higher your utility factor, the more power and flexibility you have. Your utility is based on having at least an "M" of 60, In the above example, you are only 67% competitive. Divide your "M" by the basic competitive "M", to give you your competitive factor, in this case 40/60 = .67 "U" (utility). Multiply your Patience Factor times your "U" to get your Utility Factor, in this case it's, 1.79.

Clearly this is not a tournament worth playing, but it is typical for a "Shoot Out" Tournament where the winner of each table meets at the final table to play for the big prize, and starting chips may be doubled.

Your Utility Factor (UF) can range from 0 to over 200, which gives you ranks from 0 to 6.

A range from 0 to 40 and a rank of 0 to 2 is a short stacked tournament. A range from 41 to 100 gives you a ranking from 3 to 4 and good utility. A range from 101 to over 200 gives you a ranking from 5 to 6 and full utility.

UTILITY FACTOR
Quick Reference Chart (Adjusted to Patience Factor)
Utility FactorRankComments
          Short                         Stacked0-50Not a pro-level event, a crapshootat best.KP
6-201Low utility from the start, take early risks to double up, mostlyLong Ball, often a crapshoot by midpoint in tournament.RCB
21-402Low utility by second hour, some small ball may be possible in early levels, go for an early double-up. Very fast in-the-money portionZone
      Deep            Stacked41-603About two hours of competitive utility, more Small Ball is possible, fast by the money phase, good for aggressive semi-pros, still some ability to play at the final table.AoW
61-1004Good utility for small ball, more trouble for amateurs, early chip accumulation can keep utility until the end, becomes mostly Long Ball by the money portion.AoW/SB
101-2005Full utility possible all the way to the final table, pros will dominate, Small Ball skills will pay well.SB/SA
201+6Full utility from start to finish, pros rule, amateurs will be knocked out, high-end poker skills and top tournament skills required.M/C
If you are not using these to determine which tournament relies more on Skill or Luck, you might as well be playing Roulette.


mrluckypoker Mr Lucky Poker



I NEVER BLUFF




Sunday, May 17, 2015

Poker's Mental Midgets and the art of Russian roulette

mrluckypoker Mr Lucky Poker
Let’s play a game of Russian roulette.
You are tied to your chair and can’t get up. Here’s a gun. Here’s the barrel of the gun, six chambers, all empty. Now watch me as I put a single bullet in the gun. I close the barrel and spin it. I put a gun to your head and pull the trigger. "Click"Lucky you!

Now I'm going to pull the trigger one more time. Which would you prefer, that I spin the chamber first, or that I just pull the trigger? 

(This is actually one of the game theory settings in learning game theory, but, using one or two bullets)



Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. Specifically, it is "the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers." The use of game theory in the social sciences has expanded, and game theory has been applied to political, sociological, and psychological behaviors as well.

Ok, do the math, then watch 'The Deer Hunter' movie for an interesting take on the mentality of Russian roulette players, or lack there of.

Mental Midgets play poker as if they are playing Russian roulette, willing to fire or go all-in preflop, hoping that:
  • A. Everyone will fold and the Mental Midget gets to steal the blinds, which happens frequently.
  • B. They will have to go up against only one person and the Mental Midget is at worst a 4 to 1 dog, which is not usually the case because there tends to be 2 or more  Mental Midgets in the same game.
If the Mental Midget does this with one of the top 10 hands, which is also not usually the case, they are likely to be at best a 60/40 favorite, as most challengers will also have a good hand, probably at least a top 20 hand.

The problem with this strategy is that it works every time but once and the problem with Mental Midgets is that they don't know when to stop and they end up shooting themselves eventually. Worse is that since there tends to be more than one Mental Midget at the same table, the luck factor is elevated beyond 50% and you now have at least 2 dogs fighting it out. I like to call it the 'Michael Vic' factor. I really like it when there are several Mental Midgets fighting it out and 3 or 4 of them are eliminated on the first hand, since I like to play multi-table sit-n-go games.

Not to be confused with the 'Kill Phil' strategy put forth by Rodman/Nelson or 'Kill Everyone' strategy by Nelson/Streib/Lee, Mental Midgets do not have any viable plan to win the tournament anymore than those who enter a tournament only to 'sit out' for the entire tournament hoping to get 'in the money' in the end.

Poker pros rarely go All-in before the final table and even more rare is an All-in bet - preflop. It's usually because they think they have the best of it or they are at a point where their stack will be too low to make the correct bets if they are going to see their hand all the way to the river. Except for the final table, good players don't really gamble on poker and they don't use the All-in bet as a bluff, unless they can afford to lose and they will still have a decent amount of chips to get back in the game.

Oh, about Russian roulette.
Does spinning the chamber cause the chamber with the bullet to fall to the bottom due to gravity?
I read a comment that if the gun is well maintained, the extra weight of the bullet will tend to make the chamber stop with the bullet at the bottom.

In that scenario, no one would ever die. However, revolvers 'click' as they are spun because there is a ratcheting mechanism which causes drag on the spin and allows the bullet to stop - anywhere. Then the 'cocking and/or firing, ratchets the chamber for the firing pin, which will move the chamber either into or out of the correct position to properly strike the bullet casing.

mrluckypoker Mr Lucky Poker mrluckypoker Mr Lucky Poker mrluckypoker Mr Lucky Poker



I Never Bluff