FEAR

What would you be IF you weren't afraid?
“In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!”
Showing posts with label Mr Lucky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mr Lucky. Show all posts

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Hollywood Park Casino Celebrity Sit N Go

HPC (Hollywood Park Casino) has a new Sit-N-Go Tournament, currently only on Tuesday @ 8pm (2107)
$3,000 Guarantee. $330 Entry Fee. It's a 10 player, single table event, with $300 of the entry fee going to the prize pool. The $330 entry fee will get you $10,000 in chips  with 20 minute levels starting at 50/100.

Tournament Value:   38.54,
Anything under 50 may not be worth playing and more likely designed to get you back to the cash game tables, but then again, it's on Tuesday.
Could be worth playing with an ROI of 4.94, but being that it's on a Tuesday it's more of a Predator/Prey Tournament.

Sit and Go Tournaments are not spread very much anymore in the local card rooms. The best one I played in was as Hawaiian Gardens Casino, a three table tournament on weekends. Sadly it went away. Commerce Casino and The Bike run them sometimes during their big event tournaments.
This one is on the fast side but not Turbo, with 20 minute blind changes or 3 times per hour and not deep stacked @ only 100 Big Blinds for an "M" of 100, with a Utility "M" of about 67 Big Blinds.

You reach the Minefield at about Level 4,  which now lowers your (M) to 29 Big Blinds, since you need a minimum of 60 Big Blinds at all times to be competitive, you have to play much more riskier hands.

If your average win/loss rate is 50% and with the ante kicking in, you have only about 30 hands left before you have to play a Kill Phil kind of game. The Minefield section is about 1.5 hours and should end about Level 9, where you will need at least $72.000 in chips to continue at the Bubble Phase and on to the In-the-Money Phase. This tournament only pays the top 2 out of 10.

The Minefield is not too deep at about 6 levels, which means that's where most of the action is going to be as players try to improve their stacks. At level 7, about 2.33 hours into the tournament, it should start getting exciting as short stacks are going ALL-IN and medium stacks get cautious.

You only have about 2 hours to Double Up your stack, which means changing gears could be problematic when you are getting short stacked.

Being a tournament more geared to Luck at 81% than Skill, at about 18%, Tight Passive players are likely to have to make bigger bets than usual, but this one could go on for about 3 hours or more. Haven't seen the results, I don't think Hollywood Park Casino publishes them.

It would be interesting to see if a deeper stacked tournament, with 30 min blinds, and paying 3 players would make the tournament more popular, especially on a weekend.
Maybe 3 tables with 30 players and the top 3 chip stacks at each table make the final 9 and pay the 3 finishers.

I NEVER BLUFF





















(M) # big blind bets you can make based on your chip stack size. An indicator of how aggressive you can be on each hand. (named after Paul Magriel.)
(UM) Utility of M, effectiveness of your chip stack size based on total blinds and ante for each round.

Monday, November 14, 2016

Hollywood Park Casino

I finally got a chance to go to the new Hollywood Park Casino. It has been completely rebuilt and much more attractive with it's modern open design, just a few yards from the old casino and racetrack it was previously attached to. I miss the iconic neon Hollywood Park Casino sign though.
I've been told it's larger than the old casino, but it's hard to tell with the new modern layout.

The poker area is more open and much cleaner looking than before and was quite active in all the areas. They have several areas off the poker room, like one for the California Games and Asian Games and a High Roller area, as well as Black Jack. Any kind of poker game you want, and the new big thing, Big "O" (Omaha 5 card Hold'em) poker, which is an Omaha-8-or-better poker game.

The entry court splits the casino off with the poker areas on the left (west) and the Turf Club and Simulcast off-track wagering room off the right (east) where you can get to the multi-level parking garage. I prefer to pay for valet parking which is reasonable at $5 for regular or $10 for close by.

An elegant bar and lounge area off the poker room and the Century Bar and Grill, the Raise Lounge, are right at the entrance. They have a Peet's Coffee shop and the Deli, a "design your own sandwich shop". Didn't see a gift shop, though Peet's may end up selling some gifts.

I'm old fashioned guy and that's my liquor drink of choice, rarely will I order a cocktail of any kind. The classic Old Fashioned, with no fruit of any kind, muddled or floating. Irish whiskey, Bourbon, and an occasional Scotch, in that order, are what I look for. They are limited with only Bushmills and Jameson for my Irish taste, I usually end up with Bushmills, unless they have Red Breast, then I'll go for Bourbon. I've had all of the ones they offer here, but alas, no Jack Daniels Single Barrel. At least they have Macallan 12 Scotch, the only Scotch I enjoy, except for the occasional Laphroaig, but then again I'm a Gemini, go figure.

Stouts and Porters are my beer of choice, and I usually go for a beer before I'll have a whiskey. I didn't notice any there, and they don't appear beer to have anything on draft.

Still hoping they bring back Sit and Go Poker.

I NEVER BLUFF

Big "O" @ Hollywood Park Casino


Big "O" is a 5 card Omaha poker game that is gaining popularity with card players in the poker world. Depending on which Google search comes up, it could be a regular high only game or a high/low, Omaha-8-or-better game that's usually a limit game, but sometimes a pot limit game. They're spreading the Big "O" cash game at Hollywood Park Casino, 3/6 limit. I observed a few hands of the Big O cash games prior to the new casino completion, but didn't play any. It's a fairly popular 3/6 limit game and appeared to have lots of action each hand, but not a loose aggressive game. Sometimes they have a couple of tables running.

I finally took in the Big "O" tournament at Hollywood Park Casino, my first venture into 5 card Omaha. They had a 3/6 Limit cash game running, with a few names on the waiting list. Limit poker is a River game as opposed to No Limit poker which is usually a Flop or even a pre-flop game and Pot Limit poker which is usually a Turn or River game.

It's usually on a Saturday at 3pm. $2,500 Guarantee. $60 Entry Fee and one $60 rebuy/add-on. They need at least 63 players, including rebuys, to meet the guarantee, as only $40 of the entry fee and/or rebuy/add-on goes the prize pool. It's kind of on the fast side with 15 minute blind changes. The $60 entry fee will get you 10,000 in chips and the rebuy/add-on will get you another 15,000 in chips, so it's pretty deep stacked at 250 to 500 Big Blinds (M) depending on if you added-on (rebuy) or didn't. As a limit game, your "M" is discounted from the first hand you play and compounded with 4 blind changes per hour, so if you are an action player, it could cost you 30% of your chips, or more, in the first hour, if you didn't rebuy. Fortunately there are no ante levels, so the Minefield won't start for at least an hour, of course the Minefield Level will be different depending again if you added-on (rebuy) or didn't. The tournament could run about 4 to 5 hours.

With an M of 250 to start, you should reach the Minefield at about Level 8 and that Minefield should end before Level 10, where you will need at least 40.000 in chips to continue.
With an M of 500 to start, you should reach the Minefield at about Level 11 and that Minefield should end by Level 12, and you should be in the bubble level of the tournament.

I came in late, about level 6, about an hour and a half late, so my entry fee, still at $60 + the $60 rebuy, gave me an M of about 41 to start. From the first hand I found out that it's a Omaha 8 or better game, which was OK since my favorite game is Pot Limit Omaha and I occasionally play Omaha 8. With 5 cards to start instead of 4. I wanted to see how the players played and how the action progressed. I luckily didn't have to play any of the first 6 hands, so I got a flavor of the table, which showed it's an action game where 5 of the 8 players usually see the flop and 3 to 4 players go to the river. Not overly loose aggressive until at least the bubble. I made the final table, but it only takes losing a couple of hands to seriously deplete your stack as this is where it gets more aggressive as they attack the small stacks. We all agreed that the 7th and 8th players would at least get their entry plus add-on back, they took it off the top 2 players, so we played on. I ended up in 6th place, where they chopped, which was OK with me, since it was a win/win for me. If I saw the next hand, I would have to go all-in anyway and still been in 6th place or another couple of rungs up the ladder and a higher finish. It was a much more pleasant experience than I expected for my first time playing Big O.
I'll most likely play in more of these tournaments.

I NEVER BLUFF



Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Feeling....................... LUCKY!


LUCK
"Chance (Luck ) favors the prepared mind." Louis Pasteur 

Luck will find you if you go looking for it, both the good and the bad, mostly the bad!
        Mental Exercise:
              Note who is playing the most hands, who is playing the least hands. 
                       What is the average raise by the loose aggressive players?
                       Who only calls? 
                       Who folds to raises? 
                       Who is aggressive against draws?

Bad Beats and Bonehead Blunders. 
Are the BBs, giving you the Heebie Jeebies, brought on by belligerent bluffing? 
          Bad Beat = Luck beat the best hand at the Turn or River and no one slow played.
          Bonehead Blunder = the best hand was trapped from the beginning or slow playing resulted 
                         in luck winning at the river. Don't give LUCK a chance to beat you at the river! 

                You have AA and slow play it to the river and get beat.
                You have AA and go all-in, reraising, before or after the flop, and get beat at the river.
One is a Bonehead Blunder and the other is a Bad Beat!

Aggression
The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging.
“In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!”
Being aggressive before the turn or river, might have caused your opponent to fold, instead of winning on the turn or at the river.

Loose Aggressive players try to manufacture luck by playing a lot of hands. They typically raise out of position when first to play, knowing that the tight passive players are likely to fold their marginal hands. They usually raise around 3 big blinds preflop, which also shuts down the players who have bought in for less than 50 big blinds and players who have less than 50 big blinds. 
Loose Aggressive players want action and will put in 10% of their stack with their marginal hands, middle connected and/or suited hands. When in position, you have to reraise these players with your top 15 hands and call with your top 25 hands. Out of position it's best to just call your top 15 to 20 hands and raise with your top 15 hands.

Experienced tournament players are likely to make a bluffing bet on the river, if they think the other player is a weak or timid player. A bluffing raise is more likely to be used if an experienced player thinks the other player is more concerned about conserving chips in the middle of the tournament.
If sandwiched between an All-in raise and a previous raiser, when an over card comes on the Flop, the raiser is likely to fold a smaller pair to a re-raise. A Semi-bluff should be used more than out-right bluffs, early in tournaments.

The Patience Factor: 
From the controversial book: Arnold Snyder, The Poker Tournament Formula 1
            Required Reading for Tournaments: Arnold Snyder's, The Poker Tournament Formula 2.
The blind structure in relation to the number of chips each player starts with is the primary consideration on deciding if you should even enter a tournament, yet alone on what your strategy should be. The lower the patience factor, the more aggressive you have to be.
The lower the patience factor, the more luck prevails over skill.

The best way to get lucky, is to keep your head in the game!
You don't get lucky before the flop.
All luck happens after the flop.
After the flop you must keep this in mind.
  • There are two types of hands in Texas Hold'em. 
  • A pair or better and a draw to a straight or flush. 
  • Every hand played after the flop is a contest between these two types of hands. 
  • The draws are broken down to connected cards, gapped cards, suited connectors and suited gapped cards. 
  • Anything else isn't worth looking at except when you are heads-up.

Your head can get into a kind of fog when you keep getting marginal hands or no playable hands for a couple of hours at a loose table.When this happens, it's best to take a walk for a few hands, which may help clear your mind a little.

I see a lot of players that change seats or even tables when the cards turn cold. I don't subscribe to the notion that if I change my seat, it will change my luck. You make your own luck, which is what those loose aggressive players are trying to do anyway by playing 80% of the hands and raising 50% or more with them, regardless of position. I love those players, when my head is in the game.


I NEVER BLUFF

Friday, May 15, 2015

Mr Lucky's Law on ALL-IN

mrluckypoker Mr Lucky Poker

This happens more than you think. You will go all-in with the worst hand twice and win, only to go all-in later with the best hand and lose.

Avoid going all-in early in the game or in tournaments unless you have the nuts or you are short stacked and this is the best hand you have seen and the blinds are coming around to you.

Tournaments are more than just about survival, but if you want to survive, resist going all in, even at the final table.
Going All-In is not a bluffing option, unless you are the chip leader or head-to-head and have a playable hand.



All-In Plays: 
  1. Made by the Chip Leader, usually with the top hand and will accept getting beat on the river, because he will still be in the game and probably still have lots of chips.
  2. Made by Medium Stacks: usually means they have the top hand, possibly the nuts, and it will take a miracle or bad beat to lose. Also used by aggressive players against weak players.
  3. Made by Short Stacks: Usually at least a 3:1 dog if not a 2:1 winning edge with a premium hand. Last ditch effort.
  4. Made by Mental Midgets: Usually from out of position and trying to steal the blinds or when they are getting low on chips and the first to bet. They will usually try it more than once and frequently with back to back hands. They don't last long.


I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky

Updated 2/23/2017
Knowledge is POWER.
Here I am in my quest to improve, learning as much as I can about the games of poker. From Mike Sexton, "the game that takes a minute to learn but a lifetime to master". One of the things I try to do is to learn something new every day.

Trying to live each game by the Golden Rule of Poker:  
Patience is a virtue!

Golden Rule:   
Be Patient! Do not check, call, bet, raise or fold without asking yourself:

  • What is this hand’s best possibility to win? 
  • Who is in this hand and what is their play style and chip stack size? 
Always try to take the same amount of time to make a decision, call for "Time”, randomly.
Randomness is the key to table image! You need to create an image of being unpredictable. 

Who Am I?
According to the merge of Babylonian Celestial Omens2nd millennium BCE, and Egyptian Decanic Astrologyearly 1st century BCE, now called Horoscopic Astrology,
I AM A GEMINI.I wonder which person showed up today?The phrasing is relevent to the other 2 parts of me as shown below.

Part 1
According to Myers-Briggs I am an E-N-T-P
Extraversion Intuiting - Thinking - Perceiving 
As far as scores go, first is Intuition (higher than the total of the other 3), second, but followed closely by Thinking, is Extraversion, and tying it all up is Perceiving.
(Interestingly, one of the side effects of Extraversion being bookended by Intuition and Thinking, is it tends to be subdued. Isn't it great to be a GEMINI?)

Any wonder why I like poker?

Extraversion: That's right! I have more than one version of what we are about to discuss. May not be what you thought, as there may be more than one version because the Gemini rules, --- Let's talk !
Intuitive: I have my own Tarot Cards and a cloudy Crystal Ball, ~~~~~ Let's Talk!!
Thinking: I think, therefore I am, I think? I'm not so sure about you though. ~~~~~ Let's talk!!!
Perceiving: Says it ALL!! You could be in trouble before you open your mouth. ~~~~~ Let's Talk!!!!
ENTP
Quick, ingenious, stimulating, alert, and outspoken. Resourceful in solving new and challenging problems. Adept at generating conceptual possibilities and then analyzing them strategically. Good at reading other people. Bored by routine, will seldom do the same thing the same way, apt to turn to one new interest after another.

Now we come to Part 2 of MEand it's all about ME!

According to the Clifton Strength Quest TestI am - (in this order):
1: Learner
Learner People especially talented in the Learner theme have a great desire to learn and want to continuously improve. In particular, the process of learning, rather than the outcome, excites them.
2: Ideation
Ideation People especially talented in the Ideation theme are fascinated by ideas. They are able to find connections between seemingly disparate phenomena.
3: Strategic
Strategic People especially talented in the Strategic theme create alternative ways to proceed. Faced with any given scenario, they can quickly spot the relevant patterns and issues.
4: Individualization
Individualization People especially talented in the Individualization theme are intrigued with the unique qualities of each person. They have a gift for figuring out how people who are different can work together productively.
5: Achiever
Achiever People especially talented in the Achiever theme have a great deal of stamina and work hard. They take great satisfaction from being busy and productive.

Any wonder why I like poker?
In poker you need to learn everything about the game and the people. Once you have learned about them, you need to get ideas on how different people connect to the game, the thought process that people take playing the game. Once you have an idea of how different people play the game, you need a stratagy on using the information to win the game. Once you have a strategy to win, you need to adapt it to the unique qualities of each person playing the game. Once you know how to win over different people, you know how to acheive the goal of winning.
http://www.strengthsquest.com/

The Bottom Line:
Any wonder why I like poker?

"I Never Bluff"