The Only Good Hand Was the Last Hand - FOLD EQUITY

The Only Good Hand Was the Last Hand - FOLD EQUITY

 

        http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/?p=1043

"It is the equity a player can expect to gain due to the opponent folding to his or her bets."

Folding?
It depends as much on the type of table you are at as it does the type of player you are playing, maybe more.

Most comments about any type of play center around a specific player and tends to be focused on becoming heads up after the flop, if not during the flop.

That only happens about 30%-40% of the time live and almost nonexistent on-line. Aggressiveness is the only game in town when paying on-line, but in a live cash game, aggression is sometimes fleeting, most times it's random to intermittent.

If you're at an aggressive table, there may be no real fold equity, because you are usually up against 2 to 3 villains. If you don't really know how much they have in their pocket, which you don't, you can't really tell how aggressive they are going to be. If you have watched the table, which you should have before sitting down, you can tell who is the Loose Aggressive and who is the Selective Aggressive player. Their fold equity is quite a bit different than the passive player that sits in-between them.

Essentially, fold equity is the extra amount of equity you gain when you factor in how likely your opponent is to fold. Working out the correct amount of fold equity relies heavily on your ability to read an opponent. In other words, you need to be fairly certain of your chances to get an opponent to fold. But how about 2 villains or even 3?

The formulas you read about in the most popular strategy sites are only good for a head-to-head battle.
With multiple opponents, you have to rely on multiple reads and your initial threat assessment for each villain.

A final word of warning…https://www.partypoker.com/how-to-play/school/advanced/fold-equity.html

When playing against really loose aggressive players, your fold equity will likely be close to zero. This is also the case against players with really short stacks (very few playing chips) at a cash/ring game as well as in tournaments. Short-stacked players are less likely to fold, as they need to take more risks.

I NEVER BLUFF

Any Hand Will Do?

Updated 2/11/2017

The Basics.
There are 1326 two card combinations in Texas Hold'em, including suits, 169, not counting suits. Seventy-eight are Pairs (6x13). 20 Broadway (A-10) cards and 16 of them are Suited Connectors.
You should get a pair, once every 17 hands or someone should be dealt a pair once every 17 hands, that's 16:1 that someone has a pocket pair, if you don't have one. The odds are 2.67:1 that your opponent also does not have a pocket pair.
If your two cards are not a pair, but suited, it's still 118:1 that you will not hit a flush on the flop.
You can not make a straight without a 5 or a 10. The 5 and 10 are KEY cards. It's still 76:1 against someone hitting a straight on the flop.

If your two cards are not a pair, you will hit a pair on the flop, 40% of the time or  it is 60% that your opponent did not hit a pair on the flop.

There are two types of hands in Texas Hold'em. A pair or better and a draw to a straight or flush. Every hand played after the flop is a contest between these two types of hands. The draws are broken down to connected cards, gapped cards, suited connectors and suited gaped cards. Anything else isn't worth looking at execpt when you are heads-up.

This is why aggression is so important in Poker, most players do not make their hand on the flop.

In a normal Cash/Ring game, you will most likely be dealt 30 to 40 hands per hour. In Tournament play, deep stack, you should be dealt 30 to 40 hands per hour in the early stages and 25 to 30 in the middle stages, with a full table. In the later stages it could average 30 to 40 hands per hour and up to 50 hands per hour short handed to 60 hands per hour with 3 or less players.

It helps to start with a good hand.

Top 5 hands: AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AQs (26 combinations) can be played from any position. AKs, AQs, usually need to bet 3xBB in early position, 2xBB to 3xBB in middle or late position.  AA, KK, may be best to reverse the betting process. The closer to the button, the more you bet, unless everyone is folding, as if you are trying to steal the blinds. Don't fall in love with AK or AQ, they are still only drawing hands. You will only flop an A or K 33% of the time, but an Ace, King, or Queen, about 50% of the time. You will flop a flush draw only about 10% of the time.
Group 2 hands: JJ, TT, AJs, KQs, AK (29 combinations) JJ, TT, Call in early position and middle position. Can raise in late position to steal the blinds or re-raise a small bet if everyone else has called. AJs, KQs, AK, will flop a straight, flush, or pair about 50% of the time. Call from early position or middle position, raise to steal the blinds or as a probe from late position or call raises if only one other person has raised before you.
Group 3 hands: ATs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AQ (25 combinations) Always see the flop, unless there are several raisers.
Group 4 hands: KTs, QTs, J9s, T9s, 98s, AJ, KQ (38 combinations)
Limp in unless you are on the button.
Middle Low Pocket Pairs: 99, 88, 77, 66 (16 combinations) Call in middle to late position or with less than 3 players.
Low Pocket Pairs: 55, 44, 33, 22 (16 combinations) Call in late position, or with only 2 or less players in the hand.

Trap hands

Use when you have a really strong hand and someone else has a lesser hand they can’t lay down. The trap is usually sprung by the flop. Any pre-flop 2 or 3 gaped middle cards; like 9-6, 8-5, or small pairs that have hit a set or better.  Only call small bets, if you don’t hit the flop, don’t bet unless in position, must always be played cheaply, fold if not hit on the flop.
Against good players, large bets like 6xBB to 2x pot or more, from late position, when all else have folded, may be a trap with AA,KK, otherwise it’s someone trying to steal the blinds with a weak hand.

Pre-FlopHands

High pairs: (AA, KK, QQ): vary from call to big raise (3x-5x); re-raise 3x the raiser,  re-raise the re-raiser.
KK will flop an over card about 20% of the time, QQ about 33%, each successive lower card about 12% greater than the last.
(AA,KK) Can slow play a tight table or against loose players, but always re-raise the raiser at least 2 times their raise.
(QQ) vary your raises; call, do not re-raise unless heads-up only or the raise was small
Middle pairs: (JJ,TT): Raise 2x,3x, do not call or slow play; raise only, do not re-raise, unless heads-up. TT will see more action and likely to flop possible straight draws, due to being a KEY card.
Mid-Low Pairs: (99, 88, 77, 66): Raise 1x-2x, call small raises, do not re-raise. Likely to flop straight draws.
Low Pairs: (55, 44, 33, 22) Raise 1x-2x in early position, call in Middle to Late Position; Fold large raises.
There is a 10% chance Pairs will make a SET by the river make, 16% for 2 Pair, 1% for a Full House, and about .25% for 4 of a Kind.
AK,AQ,AJ (suited or un-suited): Raise 2x-3x, call small to medium raises, fold to large raises except for heads-up, then call. Good hands to raise in the blinds, but only 1x BB.
AT-A6 (suited): Call all small bets, raise in early position 1x, fold all large bets, except when heads up.
AT-A6 (un-suited): Call all small bets, don't raise or re-raise, fold all large bets, except when heads up. Try to see the flop cheaply. Call in early position, can call small raises if less than 3 other players.
A5-A2 (suited & un-suited); Call all small bets, fold 2x+ raises and large bets, except when heads up. Suited has more options than un-suited. Call suited cards in early position, fold if raised.

Move up a group if someone raises or bets 3x or more before you, unless you are heads-up

KQ-KJ-KT-QJ-QT (suited); bet 2x-3x in any position, call any small bet, check any normal bet or if more than 3 remaining players.
KQ-KJ-KT-QJ-QT (not suited); bet 2x-3x in early position, bet 1x-2x in middle or late position, call any small bet, check any normal bet or if more than 3 remaining players. Fold any large bet.
Any other 19+ hand: (suited), bet 1x-2x if everyone checks, call small bets, fold large bets. (Points)
Any other 19+ hand: (not suited); call small bets, check if possible, fold to large bets
Middle suited connectors: check if possible, bet in late position, call small bets in middle position, fold to large bets. Likely to flop flush and straight draws.
Middle non-suited connectors: check if possible, call small bets in late position, fold large bets. Likely to flop straight draws.
Low suited and non-suited connectors: check if possible, bet in late or middle position, fold any bet if more than 2 remaining players. Likely to be middle or low pair. Great trap hand if a set is made on the river.
Gapped suited cards: Try to keep the gaps to 2 or less. The higher the lead card the better, K-2 can be bet in late position, best to check only; Q-2 check only, fold any other, unless heads-up, then call only small bets. Cards with 1 gap are more likely to hit a flush than a straight. The chance of hitting a straight with 1 gap is the same as any suited connector.
Gapped non-suited cards: Try to keep the gaps to 2 or less. Cards with 1 gap have the same chance of hitting the flop for a straight as any non-suited connector.

Mental Exercise: Remember the last 3 flop textures. The probability is higher of a favorable flop hitting your hand if your hand is the opposite of the previous flops. (Gambler's Fallacy, but you will be surprised at how often it happens)

I NEVER BLUFF

Lions and Tigers and Bears, OH MY!

Updated 2/11/2017

There are the 3 top cards in poker that prevail in anyone's 2 hold cards. 
Everyone plays Aces, Kings, and Queens, some with almost any other. 
The "Momma Bear or Queen" will be the most fierce card in the deck. Even Q7 or Q8 (unsuited) is a great hand to some players. To that extent, one of these 3 cards will hit the board about 50% of the time.
If you have one of them, you need to be aware of the ones you don't have, that end up hitting the board. If you don't have one, odds are better than 50%, someone does. Having 2 of them, AK, AQ, KQ, gives you the opportunity to gamble pre-flop. They are still just drawing cards, so don't go crazy, but most payers are not likely to throw them away pre-flop, regardless of the bets and raises.

Pre-Flop:
An Ace, King, or Queen will hit the flop about 50% of the time, so if it didn't show up, there's a good chance it will by the river. If you have the Queen and a good kicker and it hits the flop, you need to bet it to eliminate those who are waiting for their Ace or King to hit. The King is not so bad because you can usually chase it away, but people just love to hold on their Ace, especially if their other card already hit the flop.

After the flop:
Now we are down to betting into 4th street, or betting after the flop, so we are talking outs vs outs. You have one of the top 3 cards and are still in the hand because the betting has been low or everyone is just checking and waiting for their card. You have 3 outs or about 14% to hit your card vs 28% that one of the others will hit. 2 to 1 against you. If you are in the lead, you need to at least make a value bet, but that gives 3 to one odds, so you will likely be called. Bet the pot and give 2 to one, and you may also be called. You need to chase them away with about 1 and a half times the pot to 2 times the pot to put some pressure on them. If you have AK, AQ, KQ and one hits, your odds are reversed, but 3:1 odds are the minimum you are looking at. In order to play any of these, you need a deep stack or you are just gambling.

4th Street (Turn)
Betting into Fifth street, the odds are worse. 12:1 for you and only 6:1 for the others. Holding an Ace is optimal and preferred to holding the King or Queen. Even holding KQ and waiting for one to fall on the river is a big gamble, even with 8:1 odds to hit the King or Queen.

5th Street (the River)
You have what you have. Bet into weakness or check and determine what either of you have to lose.


I NEVER BLUFF

Black Swans, the impact of unpredictable occurrences

Black Swans are unknown unknown catastrophes or miracles, as opposed to known unknown coincidences or known known events, based on 4 things regarding knowledge, things you know that you know, things you know that you don't know, things that you don't know that you know, and things that you don't know that you don't know. I think more things are turning into things that I don't know that I know (forgot).

Trying to account for random occurrences in chance by looking for swings in the probability of success or disaster when you can't predict a Black Swan occurrence is really futile. The best you can hope for is to limit your disasters or losses and protect your successes or gains. You do this by setting limits and keeping within those limits or at least protecting part of your successes while hoping for a Black Swan miracle.

There are those who advocate continuing to play when you are on a losing streak, because you know you are playing correctly and those who advocate cutting your losses, because psychologically you're just playing head games with yourself. I think the smart thing is to at least take a break to regroup or reassess your play and the players in the game.

Whether it's playing poker (cash games) and looking for your hand to improve, your stack to grow or playing roulette and praying your number hits, if you're calculating the probabilities of success or failure, set limits on both. Losing all your chips is better than losing all your cash and it's always better to limit how much of your profits you are willing to give back, when the tide turns after being on a winning roll.
(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

I Never Bluff