Lions and Tigers and Bears, OH MY!

Updated 2/11/2017

There are the 3 top cards in poker that prevail in anyone's 2 hold cards. 
Everyone plays Aces, Kings, and Queens, some with almost any other. 
The "Momma Bear or Queen" will be the most fierce card in the deck. Even Q7 or Q8 (unsuited) is a great hand to some players. To that extent, one of these 3 cards will hit the board about 50% of the time.
If you have one of them, you need to be aware of the ones you don't have, that end up hitting the board. If you don't have one, odds are better than 50%, someone does. Having 2 of them, AK, AQ, KQ, gives you the opportunity to gamble pre-flop. They are still just drawing cards, so don't go crazy, but most payers are not likely to throw them away pre-flop, regardless of the bets and raises.

Pre-Flop:
An Ace, King, or Queen will hit the flop about 50% of the time, so if it didn't show up, there's a good chance it will by the river. If you have the Queen and a good kicker and it hits the flop, you need to bet it to eliminate those who are waiting for their Ace or King to hit. The King is not so bad because you can usually chase it away, but people just love to hold on their Ace, especially if their other card already hit the flop.

After the flop:
Now we are down to betting into 4th street, or betting after the flop, so we are talking outs vs outs. You have one of the top 3 cards and are still in the hand because the betting has been low or everyone is just checking and waiting for their card. You have 3 outs or about 14% to hit your card vs 28% that one of the others will hit. 2 to 1 against you. If you are in the lead, you need to at least make a value bet, but that gives 3 to one odds, so you will likely be called. Bet the pot and give 2 to one, and you may also be called. You need to chase them away with about 1 and a half times the pot to 2 times the pot to put some pressure on them. If you have AK, AQ, KQ and one hits, your odds are reversed, but 3:1 odds are the minimum you are looking at. In order to play any of these, you need a deep stack or you are just gambling.

4th Street (Turn)
Betting into Fifth street, the odds are worse. 12:1 for you and only 6:1 for the others. Holding an Ace is optimal and preferred to holding the King or Queen. Even holding KQ and waiting for one to fall on the river is a big gamble, even with 8:1 odds to hit the King or Queen.

5th Street (the River)
You have what you have. Bet into weakness or check and determine what either of you have to lose.


I NEVER BLUFF

FLOP RANKINGS

Updated 2/11/2017

Currently reading Every Hand Revealed by Gus Hanson.

If you have every watched poker on TV, you know they don't show every hand played. This makes it hard for new players to learn what hand to play and when to play them and how to play them. One of the chief reasons I think there are more aggressive players in the games than a few years ago. Gus Hanson takes you through most, not all, of the hands he was dealt when he won the Aussie Poker Millions tournament in 2007.

I'm about a third of the way through and it looks like Gus is really only playing in hands he thinks he can get heads up in, unless he has a top hand. Most of the hands he plays are played aggressively, from any position. The players appear to be less aggressive than you see on TV, which could be misleading, but may be due to not really knowing about the hands he is not in.

Still, it shows how aggression will win pots that would be lost if you didn't try to reduce the field and try to get heads up. Which leads to some thinking about reading the board again and what you are likely up against.

I like to rate the board, especially when I'm not in the hand, and see if I can figure out who has what. I rate flops from A+ to C, because even what some might consider a D type of nothing flop can lead to a monster on the end, but most players aren't going to go to the Turn or River without a hand that has the potential to win, unless you like to gamble or you're a Mental Midget.

FLOP RATINGS
A+
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
Royal Flush, (Ace + K-Q-J) +/- gapped
Straight Flush (any) +/- gapped
Trips (any)
High Pair (AA-TT) + 1 Broadway card (A-T)

A
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
3 Broadway Cards (AKQJT) +/- 2 are Suited or Gapped
2 Broadway Cards + Suited card less than a Ten
High Pair (AA-KK) - NO other Broadway Card
Ace Suited + 1 Broadway card, not suited

B+
(likely to hit more than one player - can lead to Big Pots - but may be 50/50 race)
High Pair (QQ-JJ-TT) - NO other Broadway Card
Middle Pairs (99-88-77-66) + Ace
3 Suited cards
Ace Suited with a card lower than a Ten
Ace non-Suited + 1 Broadway card
2 Broadway cards + 1 card less than a Ten

B
(hits limpers the most)
Middle Pair (99-88-77-66)  + K-Q-J - NO Ace
Ace + Low Pair (22-55)
Pair lower than a Ten + K-Q-J
Ace - non-Suited + Middle Connectors (9876)
J or T + 98 +/- 2 are Suited
3 middle connectors - (9876) +/- gap

B-
1 Broadway + 2 cards lower than a Ten
Low Pair (22-55) with NO Ace

C+
Low Straight (2345) +/- suited or gapped

C
anything else

The Turn and the River can change anything, but the right play on the Flop may cut out the draws that can win on the last two streets.

I NEVER BLUFF

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? (pt 3)

“Bluffing is a nice word for lying. The cards are going to even out in the end. In poker, the one who lies the best wins.” Chris Anderson

(Part 1) (Part 2)
Bluffing according to the flop

Most poker books say that players miss their hand on the flop. It's more likely that someone may have hit bottom pair or even more likely that a few people are on some kind of draw. Bluffing to represent a hand is easier as the lack of betting or weak betting progresses toward the button. Also the texture of the board may give someone the opportunity to represent a hand that may have missed most players.

Flops without an Ace

There is an 87% chance that at least one person at a full table has an Ace and a 76% chance that two players at a full table have an Ace. Actually there is an 87% chance that at least one person has any card you can name and 76% that two players have the same card. That being said, the lack of an Ace on the flop should mean that at least one person still in the hand has an Ace, as an overcard, because many players can not fold any Ace. As the betting moves around from early position players to late position players, a bluff can be represented that someone has paired the board and may have the Ace kicker. A single broadway card, King, Queen, Jack or Ten, can also be represented as many good players will already have mucked hands with high cards and low kickers. When the flop comes and it's 3 cards lower than a 10, if the opponent checks and you check, he is probably thinking you have an Ace, King, or Queen. If one comes, you should bet, even if you have low cards, if you think he will fold often enough for you to win.

Flops with an Ace

Knowing that there is an 87% chance that at least one person is holding an Ace and that there is a 76% chance that two people may have an Ace, as bets progress around the table toward the button, the lack of a bet gives more of an opportunity to represent the Ace that didn't hit someone's hand. Most good players aren't going to slow play even AK when the Ace hits, because there is that 76% chance someone else has an Ace and now may have 2 pair or an Ace high flush or straight draw. Everyone that has read any good poker book know the danger of allowing someone on a draw to get a free card, or even a cheap card, so there should be some betting going on, even a bluff.

Flops with a pair or better

There is only about a 2% chance that someone hit a set on the flop. Someone who did hit the set, may be slow playing the set, depending on how high it is and where they are in the betting sequence. Early position players are more likely to have hit a high set than a low set, so it's more likely they might slow play it. It's not likely that an early position player would represent a set by slow playing, more likely they could make an large bet to represent a bluff, if they have lots of chips. As the betting sequence moves around to the button, the lack of betting or weak bets could give someone the opportunity to represent the set.

There is less than a 1% chance that someone hit a straight or flush on the flop, this makes slow playing a made hand the optimal choice, unless someone has the low end. Here, a check raise, could be a good bluff against poor or weak players, or even good players if the bluff is made by a good player. Poor, weak, and tight players are not likely to make a check raise as a bluff.

A flop with trips on the board, meaning someone may have quads, will usually mean everyone, including the person with quads, is checking or making the minimum bet and only calling. It's more likely that the bets will occur on the turn and river if someone has and Ace or a full house. Probably the one hand that shouldn't have a bluff going, but if you have enough chips and the betting checks to the river, a bluff could be made.

Flops with 3 high cards

Since everyone plays the Broadway cards, it's likely someone hit something. The bluff can be made when someone makes a weak bet, suggesting a hand that can be beat. If there is no Ace on the board, an Ace can easily be represented to suggest the Nut Straight. This is one of the most dangerous bluffs to be made because the board is ripe for a Full House.

Flops with 3 of the same suit

It's about 500 to 1 that someone will hit the flush on the flop. Playing for the flush draw with anything but the Nuts is dangerous, but that's where the bluff comes in. 3 suited cards on the flop is so scary that most bets will usually be minimal, except by the Nut draws. That's where a raise or check raise could win the pot before the turn.

Bluffing against player types

If you are against an opponent who almost always calls, then you shouldn't bluff at all. If you are against an opponent who folds too much, you should bluff frequently.

Aggression Factors (from I Hate Bluffing)

11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)

12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),

21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)

22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).

3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

http://ljblue.blogspot.com/2009/08/i-hate-bluffing.html

Passive Players

Generally the easiest to bluff, but the one you have to give in to if they raise back and sometimes if they even call. Weak tight players are not likely to continue with the hand if they are challenged. Calling Station players have to be bet off the hand with a big bet, if they call, you are going to have to make another large bet in the hopes the Calling Station will fold. Tight players play a tighter range of cards, so bluffing is actually easier, but tight players are easier to bluff. Don't go overboard on bluffing, you still have to pick your spots. Pure bluffs can be profitable against tight player, but have to be abandoned if called or raised. You will usually only be called by players that have a top hand. Aggressive players will be able to steal the blinds, but lose more when they have a good, but not great, hand. Don't play as many drawing hands agains tight players.

Aggressive Players

Aggressive players have to be met with aggression, but are harder to bluff. “In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!” The first to bet can sometimes take the pot, unless they are up against a loose aggressive or worse, a Mental Midget. Knowing who the loose aggressive players are and who the Mental Midget is gives the advantage to a Semi-bluff that catches a hand. Aggressive players tend to be poorer players, so a good player is rarely going to bluff an aggressive player. Tighten up on semi-bluffs and losen up on legitimate hands. Against aggressive players, play more drawing hands and do not play loose with marginal hands.

(Bluff or Semi-Bluff Part 1)

(Bluff or Semi-Bluff Part 2)

"The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging"
Sun-Tzu's The Art of War.

I Never Bluff

NLH Poker: Reading the board (Part 2)

So let's talk about some standard types of FLOPS.
Everyone knows that the flop defines your hand. The thing you should be asking yourself is, who would be playing to this flop? And you can kind of figure out most of the possible hands according to position, card ranges and betting patterns.

The best hand likely to hit on any flop that doesn't include a pair is trips and most players that hit trips are going to slow play to trap other players with good drawing hands or even 2 pair. Pocket pairs only happen once out of 16 hands, so two players having pocket pairs is unlikely. Someone will flop a pair about 42% of the time, but considering that the minor cards (2-7) are usually mucked, we're probably down to less than a 30% chance that someone paired the board, and flopping 2 pair happens less than 5% of the time. It may be best to vary how you slow play by checking out of position or if in position, calling any bet or making a small bet. Heads-up on the FLOP is the most likely place for the bluff to start, but more likely where the betting tells come into play.

Ace with Rags
FLOPS like Ah 3d 9s - It's the position players that will drive the pot. If you don't have the Ace, someone likely does. The best hand is pocket pairs for the sets of AAA, 333, 999, and the 33 may have been mucked anyway depending on position. How many players that are in the hand, after the pre-flop betting, are going to hit anything?
Early position players that bet, probably have the Ace because they aren't likely to be playing anything with a 3 or 9 unless it's a pocket pair. They could have a suited Kh like KQ or KJ, and may have mucked K10 and QJ if there was a lot of action pre-flop. They may be betting on the nut draw, but they most likely aren't going to bet more than the pot and might check raise a set.
Middle position players that are the first to bet may have the same type of hand as the early position players, but might also try to represent the Ace with a probe bet. If they have to call a raise, they are more likely to call with a set or 2 pair or raise with an A10 or higher kicker. Passive players are only going to bet if they have paired their Ace or hit 2 pair or a set, they aren't likely to slow play it.
Late position players that are the first to bet are most likely going to bet 2 times the Big Blind, or more, with anything. Checking is just too weak, but it might be a good play if they know that the blinds or button are loose players that will bet if no one has or call any normal bet with only one player before them. Late position players could call any raise if they have pocket pairs higher than the 9, or raise with an Ace with a kicker higher than the nine. Might call any raise with 2 pair or better. A raise should get everyone to fold except another Ace with a high kicker or 2 pair or an set. Passive players are only going to play the nuts, but may not raise if they think they can be beat.

Two high cards with no ace
FLOPS like Kc Qd 7C - The kind of hand that may see lots of action. The best hand has pocket pairs for trip KKK, QQQ, or 777.
It's the kind of hand that can get someone in a lot of trouble. Second pair, QQ, is very vulnerable. Anyone who calls must have the King or AA or 2 pair or a set, they may even raise. The chip leader, if loose aggressive, may even re-raise, suspecting a bluff or representing a King with a higher kicker, if they can afford to lose. Bottom pair, 77, is already beat by too many possible hands. Most players hold just about any face card
Early Position players that bet are likely to have a strong hand since they should only be playing the top 5 or 6 hands. Now you have to look at the type of player in this position. Passive players may overplay the hand and force all of the money out, unless they are on a nut flush draw holding Ac Xc, then they will probably fold to a normal bet down the line. Aggressive players could be playing any of the top 15 or even 20 hands and would bet 3 to 4 times the blinds. You don't slow play this type of board because of all the players who keep these cards, anyone could have 2 pair. Someone with bottom pair, 77, will likely fold to a big raise.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet could easily get sandwiched between AA or a set of Kings/Queens, if the early position player just checked and the late position players could have the club draw or a set of sevens. Middle position is just about the worst place to be with this type of draw, unless you have a monster.
Late Position players that are the first to bet are still going to bet 3 times the blinds. If they only check, then they could be on an Ace high hand or lower club draw, or even looking to check-raise with a set or 2 pair. Most are going to raise to at least steal the blinds. Passive players are most likely to make a weak bet or just check. Late Position players that have to call or raise can't really bluff here, unless there is only one other player in the hand, and it's a weak player. With 2 or more payers in the hand before them, they have to have a good hand that can beat a player that pairs the board but has a weak kicker.

A high card, no ace, with 2 rags
FLOPS like Qs 8h 4h - the kind of flop that may miss most hands. The best hands possible would be pocket pairs for QQQ, 888, 444, and 44 may have been mucked depending on position and player types. Still reading "Poker Wizards" by Warwick Dunnett and the section by Mike Sexton talks about bluffing opportunities. Flops that have high cards without an Ace can be represented as having the high card when they sense weakness on the other players. It's one of those areas where your cards may be irrevelent. You can bluff out the players with the Ace, even if they have a high kicker.
Early Position players that bet, if they don't have trip Queens or Eights, probably have the AQ, maybe KQ, for top pair and a great kicker. They're not likely to have Q8 or Q4, unless they are aggressive players because good players and weak players will muck them. Shouldn't be any checking here, unless someone has AA or KK, even then there should be a good size bet to limit the field.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet can almost go to steal the blinds from this position. It's still more likely that they need AA or KK or trips or 2 pair to even bet here. Just about everyone who checked or made a minimum bet is on a draw, because anyone who had a Queen may have kept it if there were weak bets pre-flop and hands like JJ, TT, and 99 may be too timid to push a big bet, they will probably make a probe bet. Middle position players that have to call a raise need a top hand like AQ, KQ, possibly QJ or 2 pair. AA and KK could call a big raise, but may re-raise to see if someone has a set. Someone with middle pair, 88, needs a high kicker and they are lilely to call a probe bet instead of re-raising. Bottom pair has to fold to a big raise before them.
Late Position players that are the first to bet can represent a lot of hands and will likely be able to steal the blinds. They need a monster hand to call a big raise from this position and can slow play a monster if there are weak bets before them.

Rags.
FLOPS like 9d 6h 2c - Pretty much missed everybody. Hands with the 9 probably have a good kicker and A9 should be leading the betting, unless someone has pocket pairs higher than the 9. The best possible hands are 999, 666, 222, and the 666 is the sign of the devil, so it's pretty much the hand to watch. If the pre-flop betting has been vigorous, then the 22 was probably mucked anyway. There's something about these middle cards that seem to make some of the pros salivate if the pre-flop betting has been unremarkable. Holding cards like T8, 78, even JT, are not uncommon, but if the pre-flop betting was heavy, those cards are gone.
Early Position players that bet first probably have a pocket pair or AK or AQ, they would probably check if they had AJ or AT. They shouldn't have any thing with a 9, unless the pre-flop betting was light. Any other hands will probably be checked and mucked to a bet or raise. Early position players that call a bet or raise probably have a pocket pair, AA to JJ and may have to muck the JJ if the betting was heavy. They could have slow played the set of 999 and really shouldn't be playing anything less.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet could have A9 or a pocket pair, but should at least bet 2 times the BB with any 2 cards since they had to have something to even make it to the flop and there is sure to be a bet after them if they check. Middle Position players that have to call a bet or raise can't mess around here. They are going to have to raise or re-raise if they have anything they think can win or muck all those second best hands. If they have a ton of chips, they can try to buy the pot, but only if the pre-flop betting was weak. They are very likely sandwiched between to good hands and out of position.
Late Position players that are the first to bet can represent just about any hand they want and should be able to steal the pot with a normal bet, they could even play this one dark. The type of hand that suits Arnold Snyder's Rochambeau style of play. If there are lots of checkers before them, there could be a trap being set, but most likely the flop missed everyone. Late Position players that have to call a bet or raise still have a decent chance with their top pocket pair or middle to low set. They will need to catch 2 cards for a straight or flush, so those draws should be gone, even the 78 won't stand up to a decent raise. Most likely no one went all-in unless they have a hand that can be beat at the turn or river or they are short stacked.

NLH Poker: Reading the board (part 1) 

I Never Bluff

NLH Poker: Reading the board (Part 1)

Flop Texture
The FLOP is where most decisions are made. Depending on where you are in the betting sequence, the flop will determine how you play. Many pros talk about playing the player instead of the cards, so the seeds of doubt are planted here. You have to look at a flop according to whom it may have helped and what are the perfect cards needed to give the best hand possible. Hitting a straight-flush on the flop is 64,973 to 1, if you get one, better slow play it, and a royal flush is 10 times harder to get, but because of the high cards and high probability someone has something, you don't have to slow play it. Most players miss the flop and end up with some type of a drawing hand or are looking at two over-cards, so this is where players represent what hands they want you to believe they have. Some who actually hit something are more likely not to have the top pair or their top pair can be beat on the TURN or RIVER. Whether it's the FLOP, TURN, or RIVER, this is where the possible bluff starts and the more players in the hand, the less likely a bluff will hold to the river.

FOUR RULES FOR READING THE BOARD

1. Unless there is at least ONE PAIR on the board; it is impossible for any player to have Quads or a Full House.
2. Unless there are at least THREE SUITED cards on the board; it is impossible for any player to have a Flush.
3. Unless there are at least THREE cards on the board that have two or fewer gaps between them; it is impossible for any player to have a Straight.
4. If none of the above premium hands are possible, then the Nuts would always be a pocket pair that makes a Set with the highest card on the board.

A-K
A couple of things about the 2 most loved cards in the deck, the Ace and King.
It's about 220 to 1 that Kings will be beat by Aces. It's about 110 to 1 that any specific pair will be dealt, like AA or KK, so if you think someone has a higher pocket pair, the odds go up about 2% to 4% for each pair from 22 to KK that your pair has been cracked. At a full table AA will win about 35% of the time and KK will win about 31%. At a full table there is about an 87% chance that at least one person has an Ace and about 70% that 2 players have an Ace and you can reduce that by about 5% for each person less than the full table. Most books you read show the odds of getting that 4 of a kind or Full House or Flush or anything that could win, but the real odds are in the cards players are likely to play and the cards that are flopped. There may be a 46 to 1 chance of making a set, but if everyone plays the high Broadway cards, which means those cards don't get mucked, and two of the Broadway cards appear on the flop, then the odds are higher that someone may have made it. Some players don't play low pairs and some don't play low kickers, so if a 4 or two fours come out on the flop, there is a slightly less chance of it helping most of the better players, it's more likely to help a poor or loose player. If a 9 came out on the flop, there is a higher percentage of players that could have paired it and more that will get the set if 99 come on the flop, then it's all about the kicker.

So lets look at Flop textures:

If the 3 cards are a SET, something that rarely happens: It could be someone has 4 of a kind, there's less than a 1% chance though. There's about a 1% chance of making a Full House, if someone has a pocket pair, then someone is more likely to have at least a Full House by the turn, possibly more than one person will hit the Full House by the River, if the betting was heavy. 4 of a kind with an Ace kicker will be slow played by everyone except weak players. Someone holding a King kicker probably won't slow play it, they will most likely make some kind of a raise or probe bet, looking for the player with the Ace kicker.

3 Suited Cards, again not the normal type of flop: It's about 500 to 1 that anyone hit the flush on the flop. Most likely if someone has a flush they will slow play it if there are no other danger cards. Many will have a flush draw and play it to the river where it's about 100 to 1 that they will hit it. With suited connectors and a straight flush possible, some will chase both the straight and flush to the river.

3 Connected Cards, usually doesn't happen, more likely there's at least one gap: It's about 250 to 1 that someone hit a straight on the flop. If the 3 cards are consecutive, like 7-8-9 or J-Q-K, then the scare is out on the high end that at least a pair has hit because many players will play any 2 cards if one is a Jack or higher. Most players will play any 2 cards if both are an eight or above. So you have about half of the deck being played by all of the players. Out of the 52 cards in a deck, over half are an eight or above, 28 of the 52 cards. If 3 cards are dealt on the flop that are close to a run with only one gap, there is a possibility of a made straight, but more likely a big draw to the straight, and that may last all the way to the river.

PAIRS on the flop, probably happens on the same frequency as someone getting pocket pairs. With the odds of someone being dealt a pair at about 16 to 1, it's not likely anyone hit quads on the flop. It's about a 10% chance someone with pocket pairs will make a set, so they are more likely to miss the set than make it. It's about a 16% chance that someone may get 2 pair by the river if they already have a pair. Phil Gordon has a neat formula to calculate the odds of someone holding higher pocket pairs, preflop. He calls it the "Gordon Pair Principle".

If you have 99, there are 5 higher pairs that can beat you, if there are 5 players left to act, you multiply the numbers, 5x5 = 25, then divide by 2, for 12.5, which means there is a 12.5% chance of someone beating your pairs. It's not rocket science, but something good to use when it comes down to a hard preflop decision.

Suited Connectors: Will it hit the Flush more likely than the Straight?
This flies in the face of the odds. There are 13 cards in a suit and 2 suited cards hit the board, so there are 11 out. Since a flush beats a straight, more people are likely to chase the flush than the straight and since many players play connectors, it's more likely that the flush side will be hit.

• On the straight side there are 24 cards that can help, but the cards are specific, 3 from each side. They must have the two end cards for the straight, either one on each end or 2 on the same end. With 2 cards to come and only 8 cards that can really help, it's a bigger gamble to go for the straight.

• On the flush side there are 11 cards still to be played and any of the eleven will do. If they are holding the normal 2 suited cards, they have 9 outs that they are playing to, with about a 36% chance of making the flush. Keep in mind that there is only a 25% chance of a flush before the deal.

Non-Suited Connectors: Likely to hit a Straight about 48% of the time by the river, if they already have 2 of the 24 cards needed, considering that there is only about a 38% chance of making a straight before the deal. That's 5 cards needed to make a straight and 4 ways to make it, for about 20 cards that are needed, and if you have one, then there are 16 cards that can help and if you have 2, then 12 that can help, which may really bring it to about 32%. We can leave it to the math guys like Sklansky and Block to give the real odds, but you will see lots of players take anything at 3 to 1 or better, as long as they still have half their chips left if they lose.

RAGS: At a full table, with 3 cards dealt above a seven, it's likely someone hit a pair and more likely that more than one person hit a pair. If the flop has an A, K, Q, or J and the other 2 cards are low and it's a rainbow, then most will bet their pair or represent that they got the pair. Everyone fears the Ace, most don't fear the King and less are likely to fear the Queen or Jack. 3 cards below an eight are most likely going to get many callers and the type of hand someone with a low set doesn't want to slow play.

(Reading the Board Part 2) 

I Never  Bluff