Playing Pairs

A couple of things about the 2 most loved cards, the Ace and King. It's about 110 to 1 that any specific pair will be dealt, like AA or KK. It's about 220 to 1 that Kings will be beaten by Aces. If you think someone has a higher pocket pair, the odds go up about 2% to 4% for each pair from 22 to KK that your pair has been cracked. At a full table, AA will win about 35% of the time and KK will win about 31%. 22 wins about 12% at a full table and about 55% heads up. That being said, you should get a pocket pair once every 16 hands and putting into perspective, someone should be dealt pocket pairs once every 16 hands, or one and a half rounds at a full table.

At a full table there is about an 87% chance that at least one person has an Ace and about 70% that 2 players have an Ace and you can reduce that by about 5% for each person less than the full table. It's also about 87% that someone will have a King, or any other card you can name. AK vs AA, AK will win about 7%, at a full table and about 5% heads up. AA vs KK, AA wins about 81% heads up and about 29% at a full table. A 1% or 2% variance is a non-issue because the pot odds will be too high to consider such a small percentage.

"Gordon Pair Principle" from Phil Gordon.

If you have 99, there are 5 higher pairs that can beat you, if there are 5 players left to act, you multiply the numbers, 5x5 = 25, then divide by 2, for 12.5, which means there is a 12.5% chance of someone beating your pairs. It's not rocket science, but something good to use when it comes down to a hard pre-flop decision.

AA (0%)
At a full table AA will win about 35% and about 88% heads up, so you need to get heads up or at least reduce the field to increase your odds of winning. Even against a Mental Midget that will go All-in pre-flop, it's a hand you don't throw away. Heads up is about the only place to slow play. You might try it if you're on the button and everyone has folded around to you. You have to re-raise on the flop, regardless of who bets.

KK (0.5% to 4.5% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
KK vs AA, KK will win about 18% at a full table and about 19% heads up. AA wins about 23% at a full table and about 81% heads up.

KK vs XX , KK wins about 30% at a full table and about 85% heads up.
You can almost play KK the same way you play AA, except there is an 87% chance at least one person has an Ace at a full table and about a 70% chance that more than one person has an Ace. Anyone with an Ace may call a normal bet and anyone with an Ace with another Broadway card is also likely to call a normal bet, or even raise. Anyone with an under pair like QQ or JJ may raise any bet. You need to reduce the field in early position and protect the KK against anyone calling with hands like an Ace with a good kicker.

QQ (1% to 9% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
QQ vs AA or KK
QQ vs AA, QQ wins about 15% at a full table and AA wins about 27%. AA wins about 81% heads up against QQ.

QQ vs KK, QQ wins about 18% at a full table and KK wins about 24%. KK wins about 81% heads up aganist QQ.

QQ vs XX, QQ wins about 26% at a full table and about 82% heads up.

JJ (1/5% to 13.5% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
JJ vs AA or KK or QQ
JJ vs AA, JJ wins about 17% at a full table and AA wins about 27% at a full table. AA wins about 81% heads up against JJ.

JJ vs KK, JJ wins about 16% at a full table and KK wins 27% about at a full table. KK wins about 81% heads up against JJ

JJ vs QQ, JJ wins about at 17% at a full table and QQ wins about 23% at a full table. QQ wins about 81% heads up against JJ.

JJ vs XX, JJ wins about 25 % at a full table and about 79% heads up.

TT (2% to 18% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
Everyone plays the Broadway cards, AKQJT. With four cards to beat you, and 5 cards to come, TT should only be played in late positions or from the blinds. Each position behind you that stays in the hand means someone has higher cards or a possible pocket pair. Each player to play in front of you could have higher cards and a higher pocket pair. Never call with TT. You have to bet. How much will depend on what bets were placed before you and how many players are left behind you.

TT vs XX, TT wins about 20% at a full table and about 77% heads up.

99 to 22 (2.5% to 54% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
Need to play them more like a drawing hand. If you don't get trips on the flop, consider folding to any normal raise. Call normal bets, but fold to bets that are more than 2x the BB.
A raise that gets re-raised usually means someone at least has QQ and you should fold. It would be good to calculate the odds someone has a higher pair by using the Gordon Pair Principle.

I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? (pt 3)

“Bluffing is a nice word for lying. The cards are going to even out in the end. In poker, the one who lies the best wins.” Chris Anderson

(Part 1) (Part 2)
Bluffing according to the flop

Most poker books say that players miss their hand on the flop. It's more likely that someone may have hit bottom pair or even more likely that a few people are on some kind of draw. Bluffing to represent a hand is easier as the lack of betting or weak betting progresses toward the button. Also the texture of the board may give someone the opportunity to represent a hand that may have missed most players.

Flops without an Ace

There is an 87% chance that at least one person at a full table has an Ace and a 76% chance that two players at a full table have an Ace. Actually there is an 87% chance that at least one person has any card you can name and 76% that two players have the same card. That being said, the lack of an Ace on the flop should mean that at least one person still in the hand has an Ace, as an overcard, because many players can not fold any Ace. As the betting moves around from early position players to late position players, a bluff can be represented that someone has paired the board and may have the Ace kicker. A single broadway card, King, Queen, Jack or Ten, can also be represented as many good players will already have mucked hands with high cards and low kickers. When the flop comes and it's 3 cards lower than a 10, if the opponent checks and you check, he is probably thinking you have an Ace, King, or Queen. If one comes, you should bet, even if you have low cards, if you think he will fold often enough for you to win.

Flops with an Ace

Knowing that there is an 87% chance that at least one person is holding an Ace and that there is a 76% chance that two people may have an Ace, as bets progress around the table toward the button, the lack of a bet gives more of an opportunity to represent the Ace that didn't hit someone's hand. Most good players aren't going to slow play even AK when the Ace hits, because there is that 76% chance someone else has an Ace and now may have 2 pair or an Ace high flush or straight draw. Everyone that has read any good poker book know the danger of allowing someone on a draw to get a free card, or even a cheap card, so there should be some betting going on, even a bluff.

Flops with a pair or better

There is only about a 2% chance that someone hit a set on the flop. Someone who did hit the set, may be slow playing the set, depending on how high it is and where they are in the betting sequence. Early position players are more likely to have hit a high set than a low set, so it's more likely they might slow play it. It's not likely that an early position player would represent a set by slow playing, more likely they could make an large bet to represent a bluff, if they have lots of chips. As the betting sequence moves around to the button, the lack of betting or weak bets could give someone the opportunity to represent the set.

There is less than a 1% chance that someone hit a straight or flush on the flop, this makes slow playing a made hand the optimal choice, unless someone has the low end. Here, a check raise, could be a good bluff against poor or weak players, or even good players if the bluff is made by a good player. Poor, weak, and tight players are not likely to make a check raise as a bluff.

A flop with trips on the board, meaning someone may have quads, will usually mean everyone, including the person with quads, is checking or making the minimum bet and only calling. It's more likely that the bets will occur on the turn and river if someone has and Ace or a full house. Probably the one hand that shouldn't have a bluff going, but if you have enough chips and the betting checks to the river, a bluff could be made.

Flops with 3 high cards

Since everyone plays the Broadway cards, it's likely someone hit something. The bluff can be made when someone makes a weak bet, suggesting a hand that can be beat. If there is no Ace on the board, an Ace can easily be represented to suggest the Nut Straight. This is one of the most dangerous bluffs to be made because the board is ripe for a Full House.

Flops with 3 of the same suit

It's about 500 to 1 that someone will hit the flush on the flop. Playing for the flush draw with anything but the Nuts is dangerous, but that's where the bluff comes in. 3 suited cards on the flop is so scary that most bets will usually be minimal, except by the Nut draws. That's where a raise or check raise could win the pot before the turn.

Bluffing against player types

If you are against an opponent who almost always calls, then you shouldn't bluff at all. If you are against an opponent who folds too much, you should bluff frequently.

Aggression Factors (from I Hate Bluffing)

11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)

12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),

21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)

22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).

3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

http://ljblue.blogspot.com/2009/08/i-hate-bluffing.html

Passive Players

Generally the easiest to bluff, but the one you have to give in to if they raise back and sometimes if they even call. Weak tight players are not likely to continue with the hand if they are challenged. Calling Station players have to be bet off the hand with a big bet, if they call, you are going to have to make another large bet in the hopes the Calling Station will fold. Tight players play a tighter range of cards, so bluffing is actually easier, but tight players are easier to bluff. Don't go overboard on bluffing, you still have to pick your spots. Pure bluffs can be profitable against tight player, but have to be abandoned if called or raised. You will usually only be called by players that have a top hand. Aggressive players will be able to steal the blinds, but lose more when they have a good, but not great, hand. Don't play as many drawing hands agains tight players.

Aggressive Players

Aggressive players have to be met with aggression, but are harder to bluff. “In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!” The first to bet can sometimes take the pot, unless they are up against a loose aggressive or worse, a Mental Midget. Knowing who the loose aggressive players are and who the Mental Midget is gives the advantage to a Semi-bluff that catches a hand. Aggressive players tend to be poorer players, so a good player is rarely going to bluff an aggressive player. Tighten up on semi-bluffs and losen up on legitimate hands. Against aggressive players, play more drawing hands and do not play loose with marginal hands.

(Bluff or Semi-Bluff Part 1)

(Bluff or Semi-Bluff Part 2)

"The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging"
Sun-Tzu's The Art of War.

I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? (pt 2)

Dan Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: "The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%", (until the final table)
(back to Part 1)

Bluffing Pre-flop

First of all, you should rarely bluff pre-flop, unless you are one of the blinds and only one other player has bet. The only other times to consider a bluff would be at the final table or heads up. Even AA should never be slow played pre-flop, especially since there is usually at least one loose aggressive player at a table and more than one selective aggressive player. It's when there are also one or more poor players that will hold on to top hands all the way to the river that someone with AA needs to make a reasonable bet or raise. Good players aren't going to gamble pre-flop against a full table, unless they are short stacked. AA only wins about 88% of the time heads up and against a full table it only wins about 36% of the time anyway. I love it when Mental Midgets go All-in, pre-flop, on the first hand. Even the Mental Midgets that win, because other Mental Midgets follow suit, tend not to last very long.

Bluffing by Table Type

Loose Tables

Loose tables tend to have many poor players so a good player is rarely going to bluff at a loose table. In loose games, tighten up on semi-bluffs and losen up on legitimate hands. In a loose game, play more drawing hands and do not play loose with marginal hands.

Tight Tables

Tight tables tend to have more good players, so bluffing is actually easier, but good players are going to pick and choose the best time to bluff. Good players are not going to go overboard on bluffing, but there will be better bluffs going on. Pure bluffs can be profitable at a tight table, but have to be abandoned if called or raised. You will usually only be called by players that have a top hand at a tight table. Aggressive players will be able to steal the blinds, but lose more when they have a good, but not great, hand. Don't play as many drawing hands in tight games.

Bluffing by Position

Early Position

Early position hands are just too vulnerable, even with good hands, to consider a semi-bluff, unless the table is weak and/or tight. That being said, the opportunity exists to represent a top hand against weak players and/or a tight table. Accepting that the range of hands for early position is mostly the top 5 to 6 hands, you might be able to consider a semi-bluff with some of the other top 10 to 15 hands.

Middle Position

In my opinion, middle position is the worst position at the table. Middle position players are usually sandwiched between the early position top 5 or 6 hand ranges and the late position's pure strength of their position. That does give a good oppertunity to exploit a weakness shown by an early position weak bet and represent a top hand against weak late position players. Against good late position players it may be a good place to occasionally try to steal the blinds.

Late Position

First of all, you have to Semi-bluff less often if you are the last to act and have to opportunity to get a free card, because it's still about the Semi-bluff. Secondly, someone could be sandbagging. It's all about how many are still in the hand and the strength of their bets. Against weak bets, it's a good place to make a play, but analyze who is making the bet. Against weak timid players, it's a good place to test their metal. Against good players, it's representing a hand that can beat the board. With 3 or more players still in the hand, someone is sure to have a good hand, but how good. Late position is probably the best place to try Arnold Snyder's "Rochambeau" style or Blair Rodman and Lee Nelson's "Kill Phil" style. Although the button is the place where poor players try to steal the blinds, the cutoff seat just before it and the real stealing position just before the cutoff position, are where the good player try to steal the blinds and/or take down the pot.

(Bluff or Semi-Bluff pt 1)

I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? Part 1

Re-reading "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky.

OK, I still hate to bluff, but found out that what I really hate is the 'pure' bluff. A pure bluff is a bet, which if called, has no chance of winning in a showdown. A semi-bluff is a bet with more cards to come. A semi-bluff, when called, may not be the best hand, but has a reasonable chance of becoming the best hand. The main thing to eliminate from your game is the gamble factor, don't be a Mental Midget. There is no semi-bluff you can make on the river, with no cards to come, it's a pure bluff. Pros look for the best opportunity to maximize the value of their hand. That's why a good player is easier to bluff against than a poor player. A good player can recognize when someone may be bluffing, but because a good player will usually only semi-bluff, they can more easily represent a good hand and make it believable. A poor player will just play to the river without realizing that their hand may not be the best, but can't let it go, where a good player can fold when a reasonable bluff has been made. We need to re-evaluate when to make the semi-bluff. Playing too tight by not bluffing at some time in the game only makes your strong hands worth less in pot equity. Don't semi-bluff if you are sure you are going to be called. Betting for value is clearly incorrect when you put more money in the pot with a hand you know to be the underdog. If you think your chances of getting away with the bluff are greater than the pot odds, you should go for it. You should bet if you know the opponent will fold with enough frequency, to make the bluff profitable. It's important that bluffs are random, don't always bluff just because of the pot odds. The weaker you think your opponents hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The stronger your opponent thinks your hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The larger the pot, the more likely a bluff will be called.

Randomizing bluffs allows a tight player to take the thought out of the bluff. It also allows both tight players and loose aggressive players to appear to be selective aggressive players. Opponents might be able to outguess a player because they remember patterns of play. Randomizing bluffs forces them to try to outguess an uncontrolled action, which is impossible. Sklansky suggests using a card, like the King of spades as the random trigger. The normal bluffs, combined with a random bluff, are more deceptive. Sklansky even goes farther by using 5 cards which includes all four Jacks. The game he played in this example was lo-ball, like Razz, in which those high cards are generally no good to win with. Using a card in Hold'em that generally doesn't help anyone, may be a good choice. The cards would be added to the number of outs to make the hand look better to an opponent. When the random card appears on the flop, you would bet, even if it didn't help your hand. If the hand fit the board, like for a straight or flush draw, it would appear that it helped your hand. Harrington suggests using a watch with a second hand. When the second hand is between 10 and 12, you could bluff. On a digital watch you could bluff when the last second is a 9 or when it matched one of the flopped cards, duece to nine. Again, only bluff good players who may fold to a bluff and it increases your odds of winning. Even if you lose, your odds are better on the hands that do win, because you are more likely to be called by the second best hand. The opponent can never tell when you are bluffing, because it's random.

In deciding to bluff, first determine the odds of making your hand. Then determine the odds your opponent is getting on the bet. Then you must randomly bluff in such a way that the odds against your bluffing are identical to your opponent's pot odds. If you have a 20% chance of making your hand and your opponent is getting 5 to 1 odds, the ratio of your good hands, 20%, to your bluffs, should be 5 to 1. 20/5 = 4. You should bluff 4% of the time, a ratio of 20% to 4% would equal 5 to 1. If there are 10 outs, you would pick 2 unseen cards as the random bluff, to give you the 5 to 1 odds needed. It doesn't have to be exact, but the closer you are to the exact ratio the better. In game theory, when you bluff this way, you take optimum advantage of the situation.

Bluffing against 2 or more players

It's rarely correct to bluff 2 or more players when all the cards are out. The chances the bluff will succeed decrease geometrically with each player in the pot. In most bluffing situations against more than one players the probablilties that each player will fold are not independant. Position and player types have to be factored in because players who might fold in one position might not fold in another. Betting to reduce the field is not a bluff. When there is a caller ahead of you, the caller and the original bettor cannot both be bluffing. When you have a minimum to near-minimum raising hand and the player before you, who has the same standards as you, raises, then his hand is probably better than yours. It takes a better hand to call a raise than to raise a call.

(Bluff or Semi-Bluff Part 2)

I Never Bluff

Poker's Mental Midgets and the art of Russian roulette

Let’s play a game of Russian roulette.

You are tied to your chair and can’t get up. Here’s a gun. Here’s the barrel of the gun, six chambers, all empty. Now watch me as I put a single bullet in the gun. I close the barrel and spin it. I put a gun to your head and pull the trigger. "Click". Lucky you!

Now I'm going to pull the trigger one more time. Which would you prefer, that I spin the chamber first, or that I just pull the trigger? 

(This is actually one of the game theory settings in learning game theory, but, using one or two bullets)

Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. Specifically, it is "the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers." The use of game theory in the social sciences has expanded, and game theory has been applied to political, sociological, and psychological behaviors as well.

Ok, do the math, then watch 'The Deer Hunter' movie for an interesting take on the mentality of Russian roulette players, or lack there of.

Mental Midgets play poker as if they are playing Russian roulette, willing to fire or go all-in preflop, hoping that:

• A. Everyone will fold and the Mental Midget gets to steal the blinds, which happens frequently.
• B. They will have to go up against only one person and the Mental Midget is at worst a 4 to 1 dog, which is not usually the case because there tends to be 2 or more  Mental Midgets in the same game.

If the Mental Midget does this with one of the top 10 hands, which is also not usually the case, they are likely to be at best a 60/40 favorite, as most challengers will also have a good hand, probably at least a top 20 hand.

The problem with this strategy is that it works every time but once and the problem with Mental Midgets is that they don't know when to stop and they end up shooting themselves eventually. Worse is that since there tends to be more than one Mental Midget at the same table, the luck factor is elevated beyond 50% and you now have at least 2 dogs fighting it out. I like to call it the 'Michael Vic' factor. I really like it when there are several Mental Midgets fighting it out and 3 or 4 of them are eliminated on the first hand, since I like to play multi-table sit-n-go games.

Not to be confused with the 'Kill Phil' strategy put forth by Rodman/Nelson or 'Kill Everyone' strategy by Nelson/Streib/Lee, Mental Midgets do not have any viable plan to win the tournament anymore than those who enter a tournament only to 'sit out' for the entire tournament hoping to get 'in the money' in the end.

Poker pros rarely go All-in before the final table and even more rare is an All-in bet - preflop. It's usually because they think they have the best of it or they are at a point where their stack will be too low to make the correct bets if they are going to see their hand all the way to the river. Except for the final table, good players don't really gamble on poker and they don't use the All-in bet as a bluff, unless they can afford to lose and they will still have a decent amount of chips to get back in the game.

Oh, about Russian roulette.

Does spinning the chamber cause the chamber with the bullet to fall to the bottom due to gravity?

I read a comment that if the gun is well maintained, the extra weight of the bullet will tend to make the chamber stop with the bullet at the bottom.

In that scenario, no one would ever die. However, revolvers 'click' as they are spun because there is a ratcheting mechanism which causes drag on the spin and allows the bullet to stop - anywhere. Then the 'cocking and/or firing, ratchets the chamber for the firing pin, which will move the chamber either into or out of the correct position to properly strike the bullet casing.

  



I Never Bluff

NLH Poker: Reading the board (Part 1)

Flop Texture
The FLOP is where most decisions are made. Depending on where you are in the betting sequence, the flop will determine how you play. Many pros talk about playing the player instead of the cards, so the seeds of doubt are planted here. You have to look at a flop according to whom it may have helped and what are the perfect cards needed to give the best hand possible. Hitting a straight-flush on the flop is 64,973 to 1, if you get one, better slow play it, and a royal flush is 10 times harder to get, but because of the high cards and high probability someone has something, you don't have to slow play it. Most players miss the flop and end up with some type of a drawing hand or are looking at two over-cards, so this is where players represent what hands they want you to believe they have. Some who actually hit something are more likely not to have the top pair or their top pair can be beat on the TURN or RIVER. Whether it's the FLOP, TURN, or RIVER, this is where the possible bluff starts and the more players in the hand, the less likely a bluff will hold to the river.

FOUR RULES FOR READING THE BOARD

1. Unless there is at least ONE PAIR on the board; it is impossible for any player to have Quads or a Full House.
2. Unless there are at least THREE SUITED cards on the board; it is impossible for any player to have a Flush.
3. Unless there are at least THREE cards on the board that have two or fewer gaps between them; it is impossible for any player to have a Straight.
4. If none of the above premium hands are possible, then the Nuts would always be a pocket pair that makes a Set with the highest card on the board.

A-K
A couple of things about the 2 most loved cards in the deck, the Ace and King.
It's about 220 to 1 that Kings will be beat by Aces. It's about 110 to 1 that any specific pair will be dealt, like AA or KK, so if you think someone has a higher pocket pair, the odds go up about 2% to 4% for each pair from 22 to KK that your pair has been cracked. At a full table AA will win about 35% of the time and KK will win about 31%. At a full table there is about an 87% chance that at least one person has an Ace and about 70% that 2 players have an Ace and you can reduce that by about 5% for each person less than the full table. Most books you read show the odds of getting that 4 of a kind or Full House or Flush or anything that could win, but the real odds are in the cards players are likely to play and the cards that are flopped. There may be a 46 to 1 chance of making a set, but if everyone plays the high Broadway cards, which means those cards don't get mucked, and two of the Broadway cards appear on the flop, then the odds are higher that someone may have made it. Some players don't play low pairs and some don't play low kickers, so if a 4 or two fours come out on the flop, there is a slightly less chance of it helping most of the better players, it's more likely to help a poor or loose player. If a 9 came out on the flop, there is a higher percentage of players that could have paired it and more that will get the set if 99 come on the flop, then it's all about the kicker.

So lets look at Flop textures:

If the 3 cards are a SET, something that rarely happens: It could be someone has 4 of a kind, there's less than a 1% chance though. There's about a 1% chance of making a Full House, if someone has a pocket pair, then someone is more likely to have at least a Full House by the turn, possibly more than one person will hit the Full House by the River, if the betting was heavy. 4 of a kind with an Ace kicker will be slow played by everyone except weak players. Someone holding a King kicker probably won't slow play it, they will most likely make some kind of a raise or probe bet, looking for the player with the Ace kicker.

3 Suited Cards, again not the normal type of flop: It's about 500 to 1 that anyone hit the flush on the flop. Most likely if someone has a flush they will slow play it if there are no other danger cards. Many will have a flush draw and play it to the river where it's about 100 to 1 that they will hit it. With suited connectors and a straight flush possible, some will chase both the straight and flush to the river.

3 Connected Cards, usually doesn't happen, more likely there's at least one gap: It's about 250 to 1 that someone hit a straight on the flop. If the 3 cards are consecutive, like 7-8-9 or J-Q-K, then the scare is out on the high end that at least a pair has hit because many players will play any 2 cards if one is a Jack or higher. Most players will play any 2 cards if both are an eight or above. So you have about half of the deck being played by all of the players. Out of the 52 cards in a deck, over half are an eight or above, 28 of the 52 cards. If 3 cards are dealt on the flop that are close to a run with only one gap, there is a possibility of a made straight, but more likely a big draw to the straight, and that may last all the way to the river.

PAIRS on the flop, probably happens on the same frequency as someone getting pocket pairs. With the odds of someone being dealt a pair at about 16 to 1, it's not likely anyone hit quads on the flop. It's about a 10% chance someone with pocket pairs will make a set, so they are more likely to miss the set than make it. It's about a 16% chance that someone may get 2 pair by the river if they already have a pair. Phil Gordon has a neat formula to calculate the odds of someone holding higher pocket pairs, preflop. He calls it the "Gordon Pair Principle".

If you have 99, there are 5 higher pairs that can beat you, if there are 5 players left to act, you multiply the numbers, 5x5 = 25, then divide by 2, for 12.5, which means there is a 12.5% chance of someone beating your pairs. It's not rocket science, but something good to use when it comes down to a hard preflop decision.

Suited Connectors: Will it hit the Flush more likely than the Straight?
This flies in the face of the odds. There are 13 cards in a suit and 2 suited cards hit the board, so there are 11 out. Since a flush beats a straight, more people are likely to chase the flush than the straight and since many players play connectors, it's more likely that the flush side will be hit.

• On the straight side there are 24 cards that can help, but the cards are specific, 3 from each side. They must have the two end cards for the straight, either one on each end or 2 on the same end. With 2 cards to come and only 8 cards that can really help, it's a bigger gamble to go for the straight.

• On the flush side there are 11 cards still to be played and any of the eleven will do. If they are holding the normal 2 suited cards, they have 9 outs that they are playing to, with about a 36% chance of making the flush. Keep in mind that there is only a 25% chance of a flush before the deal.

Non-Suited Connectors: Likely to hit a Straight about 48% of the time by the river, if they already have 2 of the 24 cards needed, considering that there is only about a 38% chance of making a straight before the deal. That's 5 cards needed to make a straight and 4 ways to make it, for about 20 cards that are needed, and if you have one, then there are 16 cards that can help and if you have 2, then 12 that can help, which may really bring it to about 32%. We can leave it to the math guys like Sklansky and Block to give the real odds, but you will see lots of players take anything at 3 to 1 or better, as long as they still have half their chips left if they lose.

RAGS: At a full table, with 3 cards dealt above a seven, it's likely someone hit a pair and more likely that more than one person hit a pair. If the flop has an A, K, Q, or J and the other 2 cards are low and it's a rainbow, then most will bet their pair or represent that they got the pair. Everyone fears the Ace, most don't fear the King and less are likely to fear the Queen or Jack. 3 cards below an eight are most likely going to get many callers and the type of hand someone with a low set doesn't want to slow play.

(Reading the Board Part 2) 

I Never  Bluff

Black Swans, the impact of unpredictable occurrences

Black Swans are unknown unknown catastrophes or miracles, as opposed to known unknown coincidences or known known events, based on 4 things regarding knowledge, things you know that you know, things you know that you don't know, things that you don't know that you know, and things that you don't know that you don't know. I think more things are turning into things that I don't know that I know (forgot).

Trying to account for random occurrences in chance by looking for swings in the probability of success or disaster when you can't predict a Black Swan occurrence is really futile. The best you can hope for is to limit your disasters or losses and protect your successes or gains. You do this by setting limits and keeping within those limits or at least protecting part of your successes while hoping for a Black Swan miracle.

There are those who advocate continuing to play when you are on a losing streak, because you know you are playing correctly and those who advocate cutting your losses, because psychologically you're just playing head games with yourself. I think the smart thing is to at least take a break to regroup or reassess your play and the players in the game.

Whether it's playing poker (cash games) and looking for your hand to improve, your stack to grow or playing roulette and praying your number hits, if you're calculating the probabilities of success or failure, set limits on both. Losing all your chips is better than losing all your cash and it's always better to limit how much of your profits you are willing to give back, when the tide turns after being on a winning roll.
(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

I Never Bluff

I Hate Bluffing

Bluffing ----- do you really need to bluff?
I hate bluffing and have always hated bluffing. I am currently reading Poker Wizards by Warwick Dunnett. The section with Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, one of my favorite players to watch, talks about the need to bluff.

Ferguson writes, "If I never bluff, my opponents are going to figure that out and only call me when they have a hand that they think can beat me. Therefore, I am really losing money with my good hands because I only get called when I am beaten. If I bluff too often, I will get called too often, and end up losing more money with my bluffs than I make from my good hands".

OK......So we'll look into Bluffing..........Maybe?



Reasons to Bluff are the same as the reasons to raise.
Reduce the number of players in the hand and/or Steal the Blinds. Generally good players will rarely bluff, unless the table is tight.

Player classifications prior to the first hand being dealt.
Rate each player as a 1 (Passive) or 2 (Aggressive).
After a few hands see if the classification still holds and then sub-classify them, which will give you an aggression factor.

Aggression Factors
11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)
12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),
21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)
22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).
3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

See if the maniac stays true to form or was really an aggressive type that got some great hands early in the game. There are many Mental Midgets in fast card room tournaments and on-line play, they have no respect for the game.

Clothing, mannerisms, boisterous talking, or no social interaction, can give a clue as to the type of player. How they stack their chips, play with their chips, splashing, forcefulness in betting movements, or mucking their cards can also give a hint as the the type of player.

Bluff Poker
Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: “The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%”, (until the final table).

The probability of bluffing may be based on position, relative to the number of players at the table and the number of players in the pot. The "Button" and "Cutoff" players could have a 90% probability of bluffing, if there are no other players in the hand and decreasing 10% for each player before them in an unraised pot and another 10% if the pot has been raised. If it's been re-raised, the chance that someone is bluffing could be down to less than 10%.

Passive/Passive (11) players are not likely to bluff at any time. If they do bluff pre-flop, they are likely to muck the hand to any bet.
Maniacs or Mental Midgets (3) could bluff at any time. They are not likely to make it to the second round unless they get lucky. They will usually make a very large bet or go All-in from Early Positions and any position if no one else is in the hand before them.

Pre-flop bluffing probability
Early Positions
Aggression factor............12..21..22

.........................(UG) 10% 20% 30%
.........................(4th) 20% 30% 40%
.........................(5th) 30% 40% 50%

Middle Positions

Aggression factor..........12..21..22
......................(6th) 40% .50% 60%
......................(7th) 50% 60% 70%

Late Positions
Aggression factor...........12..21..22
..........(8th/Raising)....60% 70% 80%
.........(Button/Cutoff).. 70% 80% 90%
........(Blinds)............ 70% 80% 90%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Post-flop bluffing probability
The more players in the hand, the less likely anyone is bluffing, unless its the chip leader or a short stack or of course the Mental Midget.

Aggression factor....... 12.. 21.. 22
Early Positions.......... 10% 20% 30%
Middle Positions........ 20% 30% 40%
Late Positions........... 30% 40% 50%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Pre-flop bluffing:
Early Positions (UG) Under the Gun, 4th and 5th positions.
The UG & early position raising more than the standard 3 times the big blind is more likely to be a bluff. They would most likely slow play or make a normal raise with Top 10 hands. They are likely to just call or raise more than 3 times the big blind with Type 3 or 4 hands. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked. Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play the top 10 hands, but any other hand is open season for a large bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs and middle connectors or any suited Ace with a middle to low card.

Middle Positions (6th/7th)
Middle Position payers could be playing the top 15 hands normally but bluff lesser hands if no one is in the hand before them. Middle Position players are more likely to be squeezed between good hands if they are not first to bet. They are more likely to get trapped in a difficult situation, when you are trying to call a bet by a player in Early Position, but are getting raised or have a very real threat of being raised by another opponent in Late Position. This is dangerous because you may be wanting to slow down the action when you are holding a marginal hand or are wary of your opponent acting behind you in Late Position, but the Early Position player is either too aggressive or has a good hand himself and is forcing you to commit more chips to the hand. Middle Position may be the hardest place to try a bluff.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Button/Cutoff)
Late Position players are only limited by how many players got in the hand before them and if anyone raised. With no raises and everyone else mucking, they can easily bluff with just about anything, especially if the blinds are weak players. If there are a few callers they can raise with almost any of the top 20 hands. If the pot was raised with a standard raise, they are likely to bluff only if there are weak callers and the raiser is a loose aggressive player or a Mental Midget.
Blinds
It's amazing to me how irate aggressive players become if someone raised their blinds. The more irate they are, the more vocal they are, the more likely they are bluffing or pretending, because they have a strong hand, especially if there is only one or two players left in the hand.

Post-Flop bluffing
Scare cards are likely to induce bluffing if either no one has bet or the Loose Aggressive or Mental Midget thinks no one has caught anything and wants to represent a nut hand. The more players in the hand, the less likely someone who bluffs is going to succeed.

Early Positions (1st, 2nd and 3rd positions)
Early Position raising more than 2 times the pot is more likely to be a bluff. They would still more likely slow play or make a normal raise with a set or higher. They are likely to just call or raise half the pot with top pair or a nut draw. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked.
Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play a set or higher, but any other hand is open season for a larger bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs but representing top pair or nut draws with an Ace or King on the board.

Middle Positions (4th, 5th, 6th & 7th positions)
Middle Position payers are still vulnerable to being squeezed out but a bluff here could cause good drawing hands to fold. This may also be the best place for those Mental Midgets to attack if players before them are checking.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Cutoff/Button)
Most likely to make a play if there are few still in the hand and everyone checked to them. May be a good place to bluff if someone made a small bet and it looks like the rest will fold.
The goal is to put the pressure on, by getting heads up with a good hand against a weak player, the winning hand against a good but second best hand or challenge the Mental Midgets.

Final Table
This is where bluffing becomes a fine art.
Now you are in-the-money and it's all about finishing as high as you can. The chance that someone is bluffing goes anywhere from 30% to 60%, increasing by another 10% according to the type of player you are against and your stack size relative to the average stack size. It's still going to be determined by the amount of the bet or raise in relation to the flop. If the bet or raise is un-reasonable, because the flop doesn't look like it helped anyone or the board is scary, then either someone is bluffing or they have a hand that can be beat at the river. It's rare that a bluffer will fire two bluffing bets (bullets), like a raise and re-raise or raising the flop and turn, with absolutely nothing. But, if it's going to happen, it will happen at the final table, at least once.




"I Never Bluff"