Way Ahead or Way Behind?

Updated 2/11/2017

How many hands can beat you? What's your position? Who are you up against?

I forgot this concept when I had JJ, in position, recently, in a live ring game. Dealt JJ the hand before and got an easy win. The gods must have been smiling, or smirking, when on the exact next hand I got JJ - again, called a small raise, everyone else folded, so I was heads up against a good, loose aggressive player. The flop went something like 952, rainbow, and he bet about half the pot and I called. The turn was something like a 7, he bets about half the pot, I raise the pot, he re-raises, and I go crazy stupid All-in and get called. He shows QQ, the river is a King.

What was I thinking? I wasn't!
You hold an over pair to the board, but it's not the nuts! The boards not scary, but you could be behind a set, even 2nd or third best set, yet alone the top set. You could be behind the three top pocket pairs that can beat you.
You could be way ahead of any other hand and up against a drawing hand, or NOT.

A "Way Ahead or Way Behind" situation requires the following:

• You are heads up, before or after the flop, and you at least have a pocket pair or paired the board on the flop.
• You do not know whether you are ahead or behind?
• If you are ahead, your opponent has very few outs (typically two or three).
• If you are behind, you have very few outs.

Pot control is the key!

Controlling the size of the pot in your favor is crucial to your success as a poker player. The theory is simple: reduce your losses to a minimum and increase your winnings to a maximum.

When you have hands on the extreme ends of the scale, putting this theory into practice is fairly easy - if you have the nuts, you pump the pot; if you have rags, you fold. According to the theory of pot control, you should be working to maximize your profit in this situation. Only a few of the possible starting hands will have your hand dominated here.

If you automatically fold every single time you're in this situation, you'll lose every pot. The amount you lose will only be equal to that of your preflop contributions. This is a small loss, but a guaranteed one nonetheless.

Before you can decide how to play the hand, you have to figure out which opposing hands are good for it, and which hands are bad for it. Any constant loss is a leak in your game; too many leaks and you'll cease to float.

The players with a hand better than yours will be wanting to extract maximum value from their hands as well. Oftentimes, unless you can discern a very good reason to do otherwise, you want to control the pot, and keep it small by betting and checking. Usually you want to play Small Ball.

Who's bluffing?
Players are less inclined to bluff at a small pot, helping to eliminate the risk of the worse hands stealing the pot away from you. It also allows you to make bluffs and moves with less risk. The smaller the pot is, the less money it takes to make a bluff at it.

Don't get greedy! It will ruin your game!

Your goal is to extract as much, if not more, value from the hands you beat as you give to the hands that beat you. The times you successfully bluff a stronger hand into folding should be enough to render your hand profitable.

The most important concept to remember with a way ahead/way behind hand is that the only players willing to call a large bet will be the players who have you beat. For this reason you want to avoid large bets and large pots. Control the action, control the pot and wait for your spots to punish your opponents.

While "Way Ahead or Way Behind" confrontations are somewhat common, you must be careful to identify them correctly. If your opponent is semi-bluffing, for example, with eight, nine, or more outs, you must play far more aggressively. Only when you can be sure you are in a textbook "Way Ahead or Way Behind" situation can you afford the passive play that typically optimizes your results.

For the most part, poker is not an adrenaline-crazed action game, it's a patience game. The players who are able to control the pots, and play the grind, are the ones who still have chips left when the perfect situation arises.

Play strong, play smart and when you are dealt the nuts, 

milk it for all it's worth.

http://www.pokerlistings.com/search?searchString=trouble+spots

I NEVER BLUFF

Vanessa Rousso on Game Theory

You think women can't play poker,  think again!

Vanessa Rousso

In college, she was on the Dean's list. After studying some game theory, she became proficient with the Rubik's Cube and then chess. However, because she considers both to be fairly objective static games, she began to prefer poker, which incorporated human psychology that allows for inferior hands to win. She graduated early from Duke University after two and a half years with a major in economics and a minor in political science in December 2003. Her collegiate duration of two and a half years was the shortest time to graduate in the history of Duke. Rousso began law school in 2004 and was the inaugural recipient of the Chaplin Scholarship from the University of Miami. During Law School at the University of Miami School of Law, she served on the editorial board of the University of Miami Law Review. A poker player since the age of five, Rousso began serious poker tournament play during her summer break from law school. Rousso was in the top 5% of her law school class, but she did not finish law school. Now, excluding online winnings, she ranks among the top five women in poker history in terms of all-time money winnings.

I NEVER BLUFF

Poker's Black Friday

Updated 2/11/2017

April 15th, 2011. Poker's Black Friday.
Fortunately I only play for real money in live games and I didn't have much real money online, back in the day. I've never really trusted online poker since Neteller stole what little real money I had put into the online games. I eventually got it back, as I expect most of the players will this time also. It will be interesting to see how the online poker millionaires recover from having their money frozen in time. Since the DOJ closed down the four major online poker sites, Pokerstars, Full Tilt, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet Poker, most of the blogs from the pros are about how slow the games are in Vegas. 30 hands an hour is ultra slow motion poker to an online poker junky.

Game play is down at all of the online poker sites world wide. There are still some sites that accept US players in real money games, but that may not last long. All of them still allow play money games, so that has not changed.  Online poker is still a great way to develop and improve your game. If aggression is king, online poker is your kingdom. Online poker will not be going completely away anytime soon. It has changed for now, but it will change again, and most likely for the better. One article likened it to the collapse of the stock market and 401k pension plans deflating.

There has been some speculation about online poker being totally dead in the US - forever - and most of the play will go to the brick and mortar games. Even though the DOJ has stated that the money in players accounts is accessible to the players, there are no payment processors in the US banking system. American poker players are hitting the casinos and card rooms, however most of the casinos and card rooms have had only a slight increase in activity.

I actually expect this to be a good thing for poker in the US, in the long run. I think that the regular casinos, card rooms, and Indian casinos will find a way to establish online poker for the US. Uncle Sam only wants to find a way to collect taxes from it and regulate it better.

I've never been acceptable to not being able to walk into a place of business and complete your transaction or make a complaint in person. You could never do that with an online site, you don't know who runs it or how to find them, yet alone talk to them.

I think you should be able to go the a local casino or card room and open an online account without using the internet, which would be a much easier process. You could then just go down to the casino or card room and make deposits or withdrawals, just like a bank, and still play poker online in your PJs. PokerStars and the rest of them may never be back, but new sites will find a way in. Only when I know the physical address of an online poker site will I likely go back to online poker.

Steely Dan Black Friday

I NEVER BLUFF

Bum Hunting

Updated 2/11/2017

Looking for Road Kill: Dead Money

Bum Hunting is looking for weak players in cash games, preferable heads-up games. I prefer to keep track of Mental Midgets. I think it's more profitable. Some extreme bum hunters just start a table and wait for the fish to come. Some will open several heads-up tables in the hopes that a fish will jump in. If you can keep good records, it may be better to join a full table where there are several fish. I like to do this with Mental Midgets at a loose table. There are sometimes several Mental Midgets who will go all-in pre-flop with marginal hands. They usually don't last long, because they do this from any position. After they have reloaded a couple of times they settle down a little and you have a good table with several fish waiting to be hooked, or trapped.

There are some players who would like to see some changes at poker sites. One suggestion came from a twoplustwo poker forum.

"Here are 2 simple/reasonable changes (poker sites) can make, either of these will solve the issue, but I'm in favor of both.
1. Allow players to change their screen name. This will make bum hunting much harder to do. No more can someone just look you up on table ratings and deny your action.
2. Only allow a small number of tables with 1 player sitting at them. Also, if a player sits down and you deny their action, you should be booted from the table instantly. If you don't want their action, you lose your table."

Regarding the first suggestion, many players like their screen name too much to change it, so it's not likely to be workable. The second one makes better since both from the bum hunter side and the fish side. If a bum hunter opens a table, any who sit can play, and if a fish opens one, the first bum hunter that finds it, gets first crack. What would really make it better would be to have a minimum of 10 to 20 big blinds set aside so a player can't just play one hand and leave.

I NEVER BLUFF

“Brains Vs. Artificial Intelligence

Updated 2/11/2017

Artificial intelligence bot vs. the poker pros

By Noah Bierman

May 21, 2015, 3:00 a.m.

Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh
The Game. Texes Hold'em No Limit - Heads Up
14 days and 80,000 hands of no-limit Texas hold ‘em

Claudico, an AI from the same lab at Carnegie Mellon University that gave birth to Deep Blue, the computer that beat chess master Gary Kasparov.
The Pros: Jason Les, Dong Kim, Bjorn Li, and Doug Polk.

Its name, Claudico, means "I Limp" in Latin, a reference to the fact that it does not mind calling a bet in a fashion that many professional poker players believe to be weak and foolish.

The contest was part exhibition, part science experiment, and part test of humanity's limits. Lead scientist Tuomas Sandholm recruited four players recommended by top professionals to compete in a type of Texas hold 'em poker known as "heads-up, no-limit," a one-on-one game involving an especially complex array of betting strategies and choices.

The bot risked all its available chips on one hand while holding a 10 and a 5 of different suits — very bad cards — and bet big on another hand when the chances that its opponent could make a full house or a flush were great.

"It has a very sophisticated model," said Sandholm, the lead developer. "It just doesn't know that it's bluffing because it doesn't know the word 'bluff.'"
Unlike professionals, Claudico did not track its opponents' strategies. And its own game seemed random. For Brown and the other programmers, poker is the measuring stick, but not the goal.

They are really aiming to advance the field of artificial intelligence to fight cyberwars, perform negotiations and plan medical treatments, among other tasks that require complex decision-making with limited information.

Hold 'em poker, in this regard, offers a different challenge than chess or "Jeopardy!" because two cards are dealt facedown to each player; an opponent always has a large chunk of information missing. Five cards are then dealt face up for both players to use in forming their best potential poker hand.

The players beat the computer, but not by much.

Humans Out-Play an AI at Texas Hold ‘Em—For Now
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/humans-play-ai-texas-hold-em-now/
Claudico can only get close to Nash Equilibrium; it doesn’t react to the specific tendencies of individual opponents. The machine instead approximates ideal rational play, no matter the circumstances.

So the professionals adopted a constantly changing, exploitative strategy designed to locate and attack specific quirks in Claudico’s play. For example, it couldn’t process card removal—the way in which the cards in one’s own hand affect the likelihood of another player having specific card combinations. Les says that Claudico didn't factor that in, so the humans could tell when the AI was making big bets to disguise a weak hand, trying to force its opponent to fold.

That tell meant Les and his colleagues could pick off gigantic bluffs on the river by calculating that their hole cards made it unlikely Claudico had a hand as big as its bet would suggest. “It was writing a check it can’t quite cash,” says Les.

Claudico couldn't adjust to unusual bet sizing. That’s a big problem; it meant that the AI didn't always responding correctly. The humans capitalized on that. “Bjorn started using the most unusual bet sizes,” Les says. “He was falling in between the known sizes a lot, and was causing Claudico to have difficulties.”

When the final hand of the competition was completed, the players had wagered around $170 million (theoretically), and the team of humans professionals was ahead $732,713.

“While humans may still be ahead for now,” says Bowling, “it’s really just the beginning of the end.”

Poker has become one of the best ways to quantify the true power computers have in a way that is tangibly testable against a human opponent.

Unlike chess, poker is a game of incomplete information—no player has all the available data. An algorithm capable of determining optimal strategy for incomplete information scenarios could have applications for cybersecurity, medicine, and military strategy.

“Poker is now a benchmark for artificial intelligence research, just as chess once was,” said Sandholm. “It’s a game of exceeding complexity that requires a machine to make decisions based on incomplete and often misleading information, thanks to bluffing, slow play, and other decoys. And to win, the machine has to outsmart its human opponents.”


This was Heads UP poker!
How would it do at a full table or short handed 6 max or even with just two other players?

(Update)
OK, they did it again in February 2017. In the previous matchup, the pros won. The new computer named "Libratus", designed by Carnegie Mellon University, the same designers that built "Claudico". This time the computer beat (badly) 4 other professional poker players out of 1.8 million dollars (not real money though). Again, heads-up Texas Hold'em.

Let me know when it wins the main event at the WSOP against thousands of poker players.

I NEVER BLUFF

A Beautiful Theory

Updated 2/11/2017

A Beautiful Theory (Game Theory and Poker)
Forbes 12.14.06 b Tim Harford
http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/10/business-game-theory-tech-cx_th_games06_1212harford.html

A revolution in the social sciences began in the 1920s, when the man Time magazine called "the best brain in the world" decided he would work out how to win at poker. John von Neumann's quicksilver genius accelerated the development of the atomic bomb by a year, and he was one of the fathers of the computer.

Armed with Von Neumann's mathematics, even a computer could learn when to bluff.
Real poker is hugely more complicated--and so, too, is real life. Von Neumann may have played down this objection because he and Morgenstern developed a theory of "zero sum" games, such as poker, where one player's loss is the other player's gain. If you play the optimum strategy in that sort of situation, and the other player makes mistakes, you will win. But real-life games are not usually zero-sum. It is also a reminder that in most situations, the point is not to beat some opponent but to do well for yourself. That will involve understanding the man on the other side of the game. If you think he is rational, and he isn't, your strategy will go badly wrong.

Some brilliant mathematicians and economists have worked hard to patch up these holes in the Von Neumann project, including Nobel prize winners, the most famous of them all is John Nash. Von Neumann, consumed with envy, dismissed the young Nash's result as "trivial"--meaning, mathematically simple. Sure, it was simple enough, but only (when) Nash had pointed it out. As a practical advance in game theory, it was far from trivial.

The year 2000 saw a landmark in the use of game theory. It was pure Von Neumann: a lanky computer scientist by the name of Chris "Jesus" Ferguson won the World Series of Poker using the game theoretic calculations he had developed, run on powerful, modern computers, and committed to memory.

Game theory has a lot to contribute to the analysis of life, love and economics. But the game will only go according to plan if you're sure the other fellow knows the rules. In the immortal words of Dalton from Road House, "Be nice, until it’s time NOT to be nice".

Poker champ Chris 'Jesus' Ferguson discussed life lessons and game theory with panel at UCLA
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/7189848

(Update)
Sadly, Chris was a primary component of the Black Friday debacle.

I NEVER BLUFF

Any Hand Will Do?

Updated 2/11/2017

The Basics.
There are 1326 two card combinations in Texas Hold'em, including suits, 169, not counting suits. Seventy-eight are Pairs (6x13). 20 Broadway (A-10) cards and 16 of them are Suited Connectors.
You should get a pair, once every 17 hands or someone should be dealt a pair once every 17 hands, that's 16:1 that someone has a pocket pair, if you don't have one. The odds are 2.67:1 that your opponent also does not have a pocket pair.
If your two cards are not a pair, but suited, it's still 118:1 that you will not hit a flush on the flop.
You can not make a straight without a 5 or a 10. The 5 and 10 are KEY cards. It's still 76:1 against someone hitting a straight on the flop.

If your two cards are not a pair, you will hit a pair on the flop, 40% of the time or  it is 60% that your opponent did not hit a pair on the flop.

There are two types of hands in Texas Hold'em. A pair or better and a draw to a straight or flush. Every hand played after the flop is a contest between these two types of hands. The draws are broken down to connected cards, gapped cards, suited connectors and suited gaped cards. Anything else isn't worth looking at execpt when you are heads-up.

This is why aggression is so important in Poker, most players do not make their hand on the flop.

In a normal Cash/Ring game, you will most likely be dealt 30 to 40 hands per hour. In Tournament play, deep stack, you should be dealt 30 to 40 hands per hour in the early stages and 25 to 30 in the middle stages, with a full table. In the later stages it could average 30 to 40 hands per hour and up to 50 hands per hour short handed to 60 hands per hour with 3 or less players.

It helps to start with a good hand.

Top 5 hands: AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AQs (26 combinations) can be played from any position. AKs, AQs, usually need to bet 3xBB in early position, 2xBB to 3xBB in middle or late position.  AA, KK, may be best to reverse the betting process. The closer to the button, the more you bet, unless everyone is folding, as if you are trying to steal the blinds. Don't fall in love with AK or AQ, they are still only drawing hands. You will only flop an A or K 33% of the time, but an Ace, King, or Queen, about 50% of the time. You will flop a flush draw only about 10% of the time.
Group 2 hands: JJ, TT, AJs, KQs, AK (29 combinations) JJ, TT, Call in early position and middle position. Can raise in late position to steal the blinds or re-raise a small bet if everyone else has called. AJs, KQs, AK, will flop a straight, flush, or pair about 50% of the time. Call from early position or middle position, raise to steal the blinds or as a probe from late position or call raises if only one other person has raised before you.
Group 3 hands: ATs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AQ (25 combinations) Always see the flop, unless there are several raisers.
Group 4 hands: KTs, QTs, J9s, T9s, 98s, AJ, KQ (38 combinations)
Limp in unless you are on the button.
Middle Low Pocket Pairs: 99, 88, 77, 66 (16 combinations) Call in middle to late position or with less than 3 players.
Low Pocket Pairs: 55, 44, 33, 22 (16 combinations) Call in late position, or with only 2 or less players in the hand.

Trap hands

Use when you have a really strong hand and someone else has a lesser hand they can’t lay down. The trap is usually sprung by the flop. Any pre-flop 2 or 3 gaped middle cards; like 9-6, 8-5, or small pairs that have hit a set or better.  Only call small bets, if you don’t hit the flop, don’t bet unless in position, must always be played cheaply, fold if not hit on the flop.
Against good players, large bets like 6xBB to 2x pot or more, from late position, when all else have folded, may be a trap with AA,KK, otherwise it’s someone trying to steal the blinds with a weak hand.

Pre-FlopHands

High pairs: (AA, KK, QQ): vary from call to big raise (3x-5x); re-raise 3x the raiser,  re-raise the re-raiser.
KK will flop an over card about 20% of the time, QQ about 33%, each successive lower card about 12% greater than the last.
(AA,KK) Can slow play a tight table or against loose players, but always re-raise the raiser at least 2 times their raise.
(QQ) vary your raises; call, do not re-raise unless heads-up only or the raise was small
Middle pairs: (JJ,TT): Raise 2x,3x, do not call or slow play; raise only, do not re-raise, unless heads-up. TT will see more action and likely to flop possible straight draws, due to being a KEY card.
Mid-Low Pairs: (99, 88, 77, 66): Raise 1x-2x, call small raises, do not re-raise. Likely to flop straight draws.
Low Pairs: (55, 44, 33, 22) Raise 1x-2x in early position, call in Middle to Late Position; Fold large raises.
There is a 10% chance Pairs will make a SET by the river make, 16% for 2 Pair, 1% for a Full House, and about .25% for 4 of a Kind.
AK,AQ,AJ (suited or un-suited): Raise 2x-3x, call small to medium raises, fold to large raises except for heads-up, then call. Good hands to raise in the blinds, but only 1x BB.
AT-A6 (suited): Call all small bets, raise in early position 1x, fold all large bets, except when heads up.
AT-A6 (un-suited): Call all small bets, don't raise or re-raise, fold all large bets, except when heads up. Try to see the flop cheaply. Call in early position, can call small raises if less than 3 other players.
A5-A2 (suited & un-suited); Call all small bets, fold 2x+ raises and large bets, except when heads up. Suited has more options than un-suited. Call suited cards in early position, fold if raised.

Move up a group if someone raises or bets 3x or more before you, unless you are heads-up

KQ-KJ-KT-QJ-QT (suited); bet 2x-3x in any position, call any small bet, check any normal bet or if more than 3 remaining players.
KQ-KJ-KT-QJ-QT (not suited); bet 2x-3x in early position, bet 1x-2x in middle or late position, call any small bet, check any normal bet or if more than 3 remaining players. Fold any large bet.
Any other 19+ hand: (suited), bet 1x-2x if everyone checks, call small bets, fold large bets. (Points)
Any other 19+ hand: (not suited); call small bets, check if possible, fold to large bets
Middle suited connectors: check if possible, bet in late position, call small bets in middle position, fold to large bets. Likely to flop flush and straight draws.
Middle non-suited connectors: check if possible, call small bets in late position, fold large bets. Likely to flop straight draws.
Low suited and non-suited connectors: check if possible, bet in late or middle position, fold any bet if more than 2 remaining players. Likely to be middle or low pair. Great trap hand if a set is made on the river.
Gapped suited cards: Try to keep the gaps to 2 or less. The higher the lead card the better, K-2 can be bet in late position, best to check only; Q-2 check only, fold any other, unless heads-up, then call only small bets. Cards with 1 gap are more likely to hit a flush than a straight. The chance of hitting a straight with 1 gap is the same as any suited connector.
Gapped non-suited cards: Try to keep the gaps to 2 or less. Cards with 1 gap have the same chance of hitting the flop for a straight as any non-suited connector.

Mental Exercise: Remember the last 3 flop textures. The probability is higher of a favorable flop hitting your hand if your hand is the opposite of the previous flops. (Gambler's Fallacy, but you will be surprised at how often it happens)

I NEVER BLUFF

Updated 2/11/2017

The Power of Isolation

The objective of an isolation play is to make a wager big enough that it gets other players to fold, so you can be heads-up against one opponent. An isolation play can be used to isolate a tight player, bluffer, maniac, or a player on a draw. At loose tables, play tighter. At tight tables, play looser. Know who are the other players using the same tactic.

Whether it’s a tournament game or a ring game, Isolation is the key to building your stack. The object is to attempt to limit the field with your premium hands. Loose players use it to bluff or semi-bluff, some overuse it. Playing the isolation game is dependent on the ratio of BIG BLINDS to your stack size. You can limit the field with almost anything other than AA or KK, but always make at least a small bet when in position with AA or KK. Slow playing AA or KK can lead to big losses. The optimal situation is to have at least 100 Big Blinds. 
Arnold Snyder uses a Competitive Stack Factor of 60 big blinds as a minimum stack size to be competitive.

The first person to bet has the power. Position can change with each street, until heads up.

An A or K or Q will hit the flop 50% of the time or hit by the river 50% of the time. If you don't have one, someone does. You can almost estimate 10% for each player at the table, including yourself. With 8 players, it’s at least 80% that someone has an Ace, King, or Queen in their hand.

Pre-Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

STACK SIZES:

Less than 100BB: You must play small ball and be cautious with most of your playable hands, don't gamble.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 10 hands. Try to Isolate one player, but don’t try to push around the chip leader unless you have the nuts.

AA KK QQ must be raised if you are in position, and don’t be afraid to go all-in, do not slow play. Later you can use this to put others all-in when you think you have the best of it or the flop is "B" or less. (see Flop Ratings)

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

AA KK QQ can be played for a for a hit and run pre-flop, with a check raise or small bet followed by a re-raise if you are raised, regardless of the number of players in the hand.

Less than 50BB: You must play Tight Aggressive. Don’t gamble, but make the other players gamble. Take away their odds. Make it unprofitable to call your bet.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 5 hands.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

More than 100BB: Be aggressive, but only in relation to the ratio of other stacks to your stack and position.

If you are the chip leader, you should only bet according to the ratio of stack sizes, not pot size.

IN POSITION:

Always keep the pressure on when you have a playable hand and you are in position.

Switch between small ball and long ball depending on who is in the hand and if you think you are ahead or not.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play according the the pot size until you think you have the best of it, then switch to playing for stacks.

Switch between making probe bets and value bets to disguise your hand. You should only be trying to disguise your hand if you are in the lead and intend to keep it.

Post Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

3^rd Street (the Flop):

The old saying of "if it doesn't fit the flop, FOLD!"
Get in or get out. Let the gamblers gamble. If your hand is not good enough to make an isolation play, keep it small and fold to any raises where there are more than two players still in the hand. The more players in the hand, the more likely you will be beat at the river, if you don't force them out.

4^th Street:

The Power of Position reverses at 4th Street (the Turn). You are usually heads-up or three handed at this point.

Power is relevant to the size of your stack (your “Q”) compared to everyone else.

M ratio     Q ratio       Q Calculator

5^th Street:

You have what you have. If you weren't betting the best hand or able to control a weak player, you are toast.

I NEVER BLUFF

The Poker Cruise?

Updated 2/11/2017

Not a real poker cruise, but they did have poker on our cruise to Mexico, stopping at Mazatlan, Puerto Vallarta, and Cabo San Lucas.
We went on Holland America, the "Oosterdam", from San Diego, which used an electronic poker table made by Poker Tek. It was so enjoyable that we plan to take more cruises in the future. (First Real Cruise)

I played in the daily poker tournament, really more like a Sit and Go poker game, which is my favorite

There was a $60 entry, $50 to the prize pool, which paid 1st and 2nd place only, and $10 entry per person went to the house. You get $2,000 in starting chips and up to 10 players could sit comfortably. The blinds start at 25/50, only about 40M, and increase each 12 minutes with a 60 second timer and there was a $25 ante about the 4th level. It's a Fast Tournament, Turbo actually, but you can use some skill during first 30 minutes, after that it's more luck than skill. Players tend to be more of the "home game type" and some internet experienced poker types than brick and mortar type. Not much tournament experience. It was a fun game, not too serious,

I managed to win the first 3 tournaments, and entered 6 of the 7 tournaments. I rarely had to bluff, as the tables were more on the tight, small ball, side. Unlike the real games with real dealers, you could take a bet back, even an all-in bet, OK for these fun, easy going, social games, but poker pros would have some difficulty with it. I didn't play in any of the regular cash games, so I'm not sure how they played.

Many cruise ships are using this Poker Tek system. It was easy to use, could have used some sound effects for the poker chips and dealing the cards for a more realistic effect, but that may be more of a programing decision by the cruise line or gaming room. Many people commented that they miss playing with the chips and using some tactics associated with reaching for chips and looking at the cards.

I can see a big future for electronic poker tables, but I don't see it taking over the main poker rooms in casinos. The sound effects would be a good marketing tool to help bring some players towards the main poker room, if placed close by or on the fringes of the poker room with daily small stakes tournaments, shootouts, sit n go games, and satellites to bigger games, kind of like the loose slots you see in casinos. This would allow for more turnover of players instead of having players sit for hours playing $1/$2 games waiting for a tournament to start. It could also be a good game for teaching different poker games in small poker rooms and casinos, where you don't need to train dealers for Omaha, Stud, and Razz games.

(Motley Fool) certainly believe(s) there is a place for automated tables in the casino and card rooms. (2006)

Lightning Poker has decided to withdraw its federal charge against PokerTek following a statement by Pokertek's president. (2007)

Lightning Poker Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against PokerTek (2008)

PokerTek Says Lightning Poker's Patent Lawsuit is Without Merit. (2008)

PokerTek & Lightning Gaming settle lawsuit (10/27/2008)
PokerTek, Inc. and Lightning Gaming have settled the litigation over the automated poker games the two vendors produce. Lighting Gaming had filed lawsuit against PokerTek, alleging that PokerTek’s PokerPro automated poker table infringed against Lightning’s patents for its Lightning Poker game. The two vendors reportedly reached a mutually agreeable settlement. The terms of the settlement are confidential, but both parties have dropped all pending litigation. “We’re pleased to put these matters behind us,” commented PokerTek CEO Chris Halligan. “We’re focused on building a great business at PokerTek.”

PokerTek, Inc. and Lightning Gaming have settled the litigation over the automated poker games the two vendors produce. Lighting Gaming had filed lawsuit against PokerTek, alleging that PokerTek’s PokerPro automated poker table infringed against Lightning’s patents for its Lightning Poker game. The two vendors reportedly reached a mutually agreeable settlement. The terms of the settlement are confidential, but both parties have dropped all pending litigation. “We’re pleased to put these matters behind us,” commented PokerTek CEO Chris Halligan. “We’re focused on building a great business at PokerTek.”

I Never Bluff

POKER - The Liar's Game of 'Go Fish'.

Updated 2/11/2017

Remember the good old days as a kid and playing Go Fish with your brothers, sisters, friends and family?

Poker is the same game, but with a twist.

In the game of Go Fish, you are looking at cards in your hand and asking someone if they have one. If they do, they have to give all of them to you and if they don't then everyone else playing knows what you have in your hand and can ask for it. In the kids’ version of Go Fish, you could not lie. You could not ask for cards you did not have and they had to tell the truth. If they had some they would give them to you or tell you to "Go Fish".

Poker, on the other hand, is all about lying. The big difference is that you are not asking what specific cards someone is holding. Poker is a game where players play different ranges of cards. Loose players may play a large range of cards and tight players may play a narrow range of cards, all depending on how much they like to gamble, or how much risk their money's worth.

When you make a bet, you are actually asking a question of your opponents. If you are the first one to bet pre-flop, you are really asking the players if they can beat the range of cards you are representing. That's why poker players are fond of saying, "you don't play the cards, you play the player". No one knows what anyone else has. After a time they know pretty much which cards you like to play and how those cards may vary from position to position at the table.

If you are a tight player and everyone knows you are a tight player and you are the first to bet, you are basically telling them, "I have great cards so you had better have a monster hand to beat me".

If you are a loose player and every one knows you are a loose player, you a basically saying "I have cards I think have the potential to beat your cards, so you had better have a monster hand to beat me." You tell them this by the size of your bet and how much you believe it is the best hand or can become the best hand.

The game gets interesting according the various types of players you are playing against. Loose players gamble more and tight players gamble less, but both players have to lie from time to time. Loose players lie more, based on the fact that they are involved in lots of hands. But on a percentage basis, a tight player can actually be lying more just by playing slightly more hands.

It's even more interesting when you factor in the probability of hands into the number of liars playing a hand. If the fact that, at a full table, someone will get pocket pairs once every 16 hands, then when a normal 3 times the big blind bet is made and 2 call and one raises, then more than one person is representing that they have pocket pairs, which means that there is at least a better than 50% chance someone is lying.

Of course, poker players don't lie, they bluff! They can bluff meekly or they can be an extreme bluffer and bluff often.

After the flop is where the real art of the game comes into play. Each bet then is a series of questions about who has what and who believes what they are being told. If you believe the person who bet first had a good playable hand before the flop, is it still a winning hand after the flop?

Since the experts tell you that most hands miss the flop, then the question is which of those liars with pocket pairs will believe someone hit their hand and now their hand is beaten by a higher pair or a better made hand? And if they weren't lying, can you get them to believe you actually did hit your hand or that you really had a real pocket pair pre-flop and now you have a set or better?

The strength of the truth or lie will come in the strength of the question. And the strength of the question may be masked weakly, by a strong hand in order to get more money into the pot. The question can be asked strongly, by betting more than the other players are willing to risk and scoop up the pot now.

Of the two most common types of post flop bets, which is the truth and which is the lie? Is the PROBE BET, usually less than half the pot, really saying, "I have some of the flop, maybe not the top pair, but second pair or the nut straight or a flush draw", the truth? Is the VALUE BET, usually half the pot or more saying, "I think I have the top pair or better", the truth?

That's what makes poker so great. You get to ask the players what they have and they will tell you. It doesn't make any difference if it's the stoic old player that never talks or the brash young player that not only talks but animates the antics of an answer to the world. They do this by folding or betting. They do this by not saying a word, or by saying loudly, many words. But after the silence or the noise, comes the answer in the form of a bet or non-bet.

It usually isn't until you reach the river that you learn who bluffed or who lied and who didn't.

I think I'll start telling people to "Go Fish", more often, then make my bet or non-bet. Which will start to mean, “I have a great hand so let’s go to the river - ALL-IN"!

I NEVER BLUFF

FLOP RANKINGS

Updated 2/11/2017

Currently reading Every Hand Revealed by Gus Hanson.

If you have every watched poker on TV, you know they don't show every hand played. This makes it hard for new players to learn what hand to play and when to play them and how to play them. One of the chief reasons I think there are more aggressive players in the games than a few years ago. Gus Hanson takes you through most, not all, of the hands he was dealt when he won the Aussie Poker Millions tournament in 2007.

I'm about a third of the way through and it looks like Gus is really only playing in hands he thinks he can get heads up in, unless he has a top hand. Most of the hands he plays are played aggressively, from any position. The players appear to be less aggressive than you see on TV, which could be misleading, but may be due to not really knowing about the hands he is not in.

Still, it shows how aggression will win pots that would be lost if you didn't try to reduce the field and try to get heads up. Which leads to some thinking about reading the board again and what you are likely up against.

I like to rate the board, especially when I'm not in the hand, and see if I can figure out who has what. I rate flops from A+ to C, because even what some might consider a D type of nothing flop can lead to a monster on the end, but most players aren't going to go to the Turn or River without a hand that has the potential to win, unless you like to gamble or you're a Mental Midget.

FLOP RATINGS
A+
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
Royal Flush, (Ace + K-Q-J) +/- gapped
Straight Flush (any) +/- gapped
Trips (any)
High Pair (AA-TT) + 1 Broadway card (A-T)

A
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
3 Broadway Cards (AKQJT) +/- 2 are Suited or Gapped
2 Broadway Cards + Suited card less than a Ten
High Pair (AA-KK) - NO other Broadway Card
Ace Suited + 1 Broadway card, not suited

B+
(likely to hit more than one player - can lead to Big Pots - but may be 50/50 race)
High Pair (QQ-JJ-TT) - NO other Broadway Card
Middle Pairs (99-88-77-66) + Ace
3 Suited cards
Ace Suited with a card lower than a Ten
Ace non-Suited + 1 Broadway card
2 Broadway cards + 1 card less than a Ten

B
(hits limpers the most)
Middle Pair (99-88-77-66)  + K-Q-J - NO Ace
Ace + Low Pair (22-55)
Pair lower than a Ten + K-Q-J
Ace - non-Suited + Middle Connectors (9876)
J or T + 98 +/- 2 are Suited
3 middle connectors - (9876) +/- gap

B-
1 Broadway + 2 cards lower than a Ten
Low Pair (22-55) with NO Ace

C+
Low Straight (2345) +/- suited or gapped

C
anything else

The Turn and the River can change anything, but the right play on the Flop may cut out the draws that can win on the last two streets.

I NEVER BLUFF

RANKING HANDS AND POINT SYSTEMS

Updated 2/11/2017

Let's agree that an Ace is the highest card in the deck and is worth the highest points.
There are probably as many point systems for poker as there are poker games and the various ways to play them. I think it's best to keep it simple, so I rank the Ace the highest, by about 2 points and the rest at about face value. My point system adds for pairs, connectors and suited cards, since an AA or AK should have a higher value than AT or A9 or A4.

An Ace therefore would normally be worth 12 points and a K,Q,J,T would all be worth 10.
Since Kings outrank Jacks and Tens, it should really have a higher rank than 10. and giving a higher rank also to Jacks, so we should probably give a one point advantage of Jacks over Tens, which makes a Jack worth 11, Queen worth 12 and King worth 13.
Now the ACE should have that 2 point advantage, so I'll give it 15 points.

It's hard to put a value on a pair since 22 will win heads up about 55% of the time and only 12% against a full table and beats AK. Given that a deuce has about a 2 point rank and only 4 points counting both cards, based on face value, and AK would have a value of twenty-eight (15 for the Ace and 13 for the King), we should give a factor to pairs, suited cards and connectors.
We'll start a Pair off at 20 points and add a point for card value. We will also add one point for being connected and 2 points for being suited and 3 points if it's connected and suited.

So the lowest pair (22) would equal 22 points and a pair of threes (33) would equal 23 points and a pair of nines (99) would equal 29 points and add one point higher for each broadway card; TT=30 (20+10), JJ=31 (20+11), and QQ=32 (20+12), KK=33 (20+13), and AA=35 (20+15)

22 vs AKs;
AKs = 31 points [(15+13) +1 for the connector, +2 for being suited] vs the 2 deuces @ 22 points.

If you loosly equate it to odds, then AKs would be favored 31/22 or about 1.4:1. (actually 1.409, but a tenth of a point is really no consideration in betting or looking at odds of any kind, not a factor at all, so round it up) and KK vs AKs; KK would be favored 33/31 or 1.06:1.

KK vs 22, KK favored 33/22 or 1.5:1

What's all this mean?
Only that you shouldn't bet the farm. At best, heads up you are usually about 49/51, more likely about 60/40 and at worst only a 3:1 dog, using normal odds, and normal hands for All-In bets, and the point system would only show a slight advantage, since it all changes by the river, and you can throw any point system out the window.

Favorite-to-underdog matchup Probability Odds, discounting suitability

Pair vs. 2 undercards (AA vs KQ is only slightly better than 88 vs 34)
83% to 17% or 4.9 : 1

Pair vs. lower pair (AA vs KK about the same as 88 vs 33)
82% to 18% or 4.5 : 1 

Pair vs. 1 overcard, 1 undercard (KK vs AQ not much better than 88 vs 97)
71% to 29% or 2.5 : 1

2 overcards vs. 2 undercards (AK vs QJ about the same as 98 vs 76)
63% to 37% or 1.7 : 1

Pair vs. 2 overcards (QQ vs AK and 88 vs 9T)
55% to 45% or 1.2 : 1

Max points are 35 for the AA and minimum is 6 for the 23, 5 at face value, plus 1 for being connected. In a normal counting system, many people will play any hand with 2 cards totaling 18 or higher, which would be an 8 and 10, or any pair. Aggressive players like Daniel Negreanu, will add some connectors and suited cards to their range. Some say any cards that can be connected on the flop, like one or 2 gaps, or even 3 gaps, are connectors. and look for luck to help them with a miracle flop.

This point system adds up to 3 points which lets you reasonably increase your range of cards by giving an 89 a 18 point count because it's connected, or 19 points if suited, and 20 points if it's both.

In a normal count a KK would count the same as a TT, where this system gives a better value for KK at 33 points and significantly better than the 89 which is only 3 points lower the the normal KK of 20 points.

Now a hand like JJ at 31 points against the 18 to 20 points players normally use would be 31/18 or 1.72:1.

You can use this to help decide how much to bet or raise against a normal hand if you end up heads up and in position against the range of hands people play, depending on their position. It makes your hand look stronger, because it is.

Can you use it as a betting tool on the flop?
Look at it compared to the flop rating system: A+, A, B+, etc.
How about betting about 1.72 more than the normal bet? If the normal bet is 3 times the big blind, you could make it a little more than 4.5 times the big blind (3+1.72) if you have a 31 point hand vs a normal 20 point hand. Pro's seem to like to make normal bets look different, like a $325 bet when $300 is 3 times the big blind or $16,200 when a $15,000 bet is the normal bet.

I NEVER BLUFF